【英语中国】中国：强大而脆弱

I first met Bo Xilai while he was leading China's campaign against Europe in the bra wars of 2005. As minister of commerce, Bo faced off against then European trade commissioner Peter Mandelson to negotiate tariffs and limits on the avalanche of Chinese bras, trousers and T-shirts that was threatening to bury European markets.

Bo was different from any other Chinese official I had ever met - he was tall and handsome, with an engaging smile and a sinister twinkle in his eye, he spoke some English and he was a master of managing his own public image. It didn't hurt that he was also China's equivalent of royalty - the “princeling” son of a Communist general who served as finance minister under chairman Mao Zedong and helped run the country from behind the scenes in the 1980s and 1990s. Most people who met Bo think his prime-time charisma and deep understanding of populist politics would have made him president if China were to hold democratic elections.

Instead, he is almost certainly about to be convicted of bribe-taking, embezzlement and abuse of power, and will probably serve a hefty sentence in Qincheng, the notorious prison on the outskirts of Beijing that has been home to countless high-profile political prisoners over the years.

Setting aside his wife's murder of a British citizen and the attempt by his security chief to defect to the US, Bo's most serious crime appears to have been one of ambition. Not satisfied with his position on the Communist party's elite 25-member politburo, he was engaged in a high-profile campaign to join the even more powerful group of seven who effectively run China. From there he would have been unstoppable and might have ended up as president through sheer force of will. Many of his political opponents compared him to Hitler.

In a modern twist on the traditional show trial, Bo's tribunal last month was broadcast through a delayed written feed on Weibo, the home-grown Chinese equivalent of Twitter that is transforming society and shaking the roots of Communist party control. By releasing a censored transcript the party was trying to undermine Bo's support and shore up public trust in China's corrupt and politically controlled justice system. But for many observers, the process only served to highlight the scale and complexity of the problems facing China's leaders and underlined how ill-equipped they are to deal with the forces of change in modern society.

Over the past three decades China has enjoyed a golden age of relative peace, stability and prosperity after nearly two centuries of war, famine and foreign invasion. Ask anybody in China over the age of 40 and they will describe the grinding hunger and poverty of their youth and the enormous power the party wielded over almost every facet of their lives - where they worked, what they bought and even who they could marry. Today, as long as they can afford it, they can travel around the country or even go abroad, they can work for a private or foreign company or start their own business - and most of them have adequate clothing, enough food and a roof over their heads.

China is now the world's second-largest economy and it boasts most of the elements of a modern society, including global celebrities such as basketball player Yao Ming, actor Fan Bingbing and the artist Zeng Fanzhi, all interviewed in this magazine. Other trappings of a population that no longer worries about basic necessities include environmental activism, growing enthusiasm for organic food and the rise of motivational speakers such as the flamboyant Chen Anzhi.

From a “workers' paradise”, where everyone was equally poor, China has been transformed into one of the most unequal societies on the planet, with more billionaires than any country except the US. And, for a system that still calls itself communist, its social services are woefully inadequate and in some places non-existent.

For decades pundits have wrongly predicted the collapse of the Communist party and many in China argue that the country's unique history and cultural exceptionalism will allow it to defy the democratising forces that have transformed political systems elsewhere. Even if the party does endure, the demands of its people are getting louder and more complex as they begin to question the legitimacy of an authoritarian system that squashes free speech and seems unable to provide clean air, clean water, clean food or clean government.

Standing among the ultra-modern skylines of Shanghai and Beijing, it is easy to believe that China is where the future will be made. But this is one of humanity's most ancient civilisations and, in some ways, it is ruled through a medieval system in which the vestiges of imperial dynasties still exist and the logic of the dynastic cycle still applies.

To the outside world China appears more powerful and successful than at any point in the past two centuries. But at home, political infighting, policy paralysis, heightened repression and show trials like that of Bo Xilai make the ruling party appear ever more fragile and brittle.

How long the one-party authoritarian state can survive these challenges remains the most important question facing China today.

Jamil Anderlini is the FT's Beijing bureau chief

我第一次见到薄熙来是在2005年，当时他正在领导中国对抗欧洲的“胸罩战争”。作为时任中国商务部部长，薄熙来“迎战”时任欧盟贸易专员彼得?曼德尔森(Peter Mandelson)，当时他们谈判的主要议题是：对可能淹没欧洲市场的中国产胸罩、裤子和T恤等商品，欧盟打算征收关税和实施限制。

薄熙来跟我见过的其他所有中国官员都不同，他高大英俊，脸上带着迷人的微笑，眼中闪出一丝犀利的目光。他会讲一些英语，并很擅长经营自己的公众形象。他本人也是一名“太子党”，但这倒无损于他的名声。他父亲薄一波在毛泽东时代担任过财政部长，后来在上世纪八、九十年代在幕后帮助治理国家。很多见过薄熙来的人认为，凭他在个人黄金时期所具有的魅力，加上他深谙民粹政治之道，如果中国举行民主选举的话，他是很有可能当选国家主席的。

现实则恰好相反，薄熙来如今被判犯有受贿、贪污、滥用职权罪，一审被判处无期徒刑。如果二审维持原判，他很有可能在秦城监狱了此残生。这座有名的监狱位于北京郊区，多年来关押过数不清的政治名人。

薄熙来的妻子谋杀了一名英国公民，他手下的公安局长则擅自进入了美国领事馆。抛开这两点不说，薄熙来最严重的罪行似乎源于野心太大。薄熙来已是中共最高决策机构——中央政治局的25名委员之一，但他并不满足于自己的地位，他大张旗鼓地造势，试图“入常”，即成为权力更大、实际统治中国的政治局常委之一（目前有七人）。一旦进入常委，他的前途将不可限量，最终可能凭着强大的意志力登上中共总书记、国家主席的宝座。他的许多政治对手把他跟希特勒(Hitler)相提并论。

上个月，法院在微博(Weibo)上对薄熙来庭审过程进行了略有延迟的文字播报，为传统审判融入了一些现代特色。微博是中国国内发展起来的一个类似Twitter的微博客平台，在推动社会变革的同时也在触动着中共统治根基。中共通过发布经审核的庭审记录，试图削弱支持薄熙来的力量，并提高公众对中国腐败丛生且受政治控制的司法系统的信任度。但在许多观察人士看来，这么做唯一的效果是凸显了中国领导人所面临问题的严重性与复杂性，并让外界看到，他们并没有做好应对现代社会中变革力量的准备。

将近两百年的战争、饥荒和外国侵略过后，中国过去30年里经历了一段相对和平、稳定与繁荣的黄金时期。随便问一位40岁以上的中国人，他都能跟你讲起自己幼年时没完没了的饥饿和贫困，以及党在几乎所有个人生活领域中的巨大权力——到哪里工作、买什么商品，甚至跟谁结婚都不是个人能做主的。如今，人们只要有钱，就可以到国内各地旅行，可以出国；可以到私企或外企工作，或自己创办企业；大多数人都温饱无虞，也有自己的住所。

如今，中国已成为全球第二大经济体，具备现代社会的大部分特征，比如出现了篮球运动员姚明、演员范冰冰、艺术家曾梵志等多位世界性名人——FT记者最近在“2013中国特别报告”系列文章中采访了这些人。不再为基本需求而担心的中国人，还搞起了环保运动，日益热爱有机食品，热捧励志演说家，如行事张扬的陈安之。

以往的中国是“工人的天堂”，人人都很穷，但众生平等；如今的中国已变成这个星球上最不平等的国度之一，亿万富翁人数仅次于美国。中国虽仍自称实行的是社会主义制度，但社会服务极不完善，在有些地方则完全缺位。

几十年来，专家们曾多次错误地预测了中共的垮台，中国国内的一些专家则认为，中国具有独特的历史与文化特征，在其他地区促成政治制度转型的民主化力量，在中国不起作用。即便中共真能长久统治下去，但民众的吁求越来越强烈，也越来越复杂，他们开始质疑这个威权制度的合法性——这一制度不但压制言论自由，而且似乎不能保证干净的空气、水和食物，以及廉洁的政府。

身处上海、北京那些超级现代化的高楼大厦之间，很容易相信中国将引领未来的发展趋势。但中国拥有人类社会最古老的文明之一，在某种意义上说，中国实行的还是一种中世纪制度，旧王朝的那一套仍未走远，王朝更替的规律仍然适用。

在外部世界看来，如今的中国比过去两个世纪里的任何时候都要强大和成功。但在国内，政治内斗、政策瘫痪、高压管制以及作秀式的审判（如薄熙来庭审），使执政党显得愈发脆弱。

对于当今中国而言，最重要的问题仍然是，一党制威权政府能承受多久这些挑战？

吉密欧是《金融时报》北京分社社长

译者/何黎