【英语财经】抄底的时机到了吗？(下)

Again this is encouraging, but the news has to come with the caveat that markets are prone to overshoot and become too cheap after prolonged periods when they have been too expensive. Hence, both these measures are consistent with stocks falling much lower before they find a bottom, even though they are currently fairly priced.A further measure that has signalled market tops and bottoms over the years is known as q. This refers to the ratio of the value of a company to its net worth - the value of the equity on its balance sheet. Again, over time, the market value of a company will tend to converge on this measure. Again, after being overvalued for more than a decade, stocks now appear to be at about fair value according to q.

T he final, critical element in the equation concerns the future. How bad will this recession be? Usually, market bottoms are related to recessions, with markets generally beginning to recover when the economy is on the floor and some months before a broader upturn.

For those who believe this recession will end in the early months of next year, therefore, there appears to be an argument to buy stocks now, as they already implicitly discount a long and severe recession. Tim Bond, of Barclays Capital, suggests that equities might present the "buying opportunity of a generation". According to Barclays' model of implied economic forecasts from credit spreads, the market is discounting as much as a 15 per cent dec-line in real gross domestic product for the US next year. By way of comparison, the average annualised GDP contraction during the Depression was 14.1 per cent and the worst single year, 1932, saw a contraction of 23 per cent.

If the final scenario is any better than this - with the political response to this recession very different as lessons of the 1930s have been learnt - stocks could be ready to rise. But Albert Edwards, a strongly bearish equity analyst at Société Générale in London, suggests that this is a mistake. "Previously, equity rallies in the depth of recessions were driven not by predictive power but by expanding multiples as interest rates and bond yields collapsed. Bad economic news was good news for valuations."

This time, he suggests, the world is dealing with a historic overhang of debt. Interest rates have already been slashed without turning round either the market or the economy. Rather than correlating with bonds, therefore, equities are more likely to become correlated with economic growth. That in turn means stocks might not rally ahead of an economic recovery.

A confident attempt to call a bottom to the market requires, in any event, a belief that the economy will be rebounding soon. Yet there is a flip side to that. "It is typical for great bubbles to overrun badly. But usually we don't invest our money on estimated likely overruns, but instead filter our money in slowly and hope to get lucky," says Mr Grantham.

"After all, if stocks are attractive and you don't buy and they run away, you don't just look like an idiot, you are an idiot."

Down time

The mother of all bear markets started in 1929, lasted at least until 1932 and coincided with the onset of the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 86 per cent.

Although many market scholars would count it as a separate incident, a further drop in equities began in 1937. The S&P endured a new fall of 54.5 per cent in the space of a year, though ending above its high from 1932. It took 25 years to get back to the 1929 peak.

The precedent is alarming: at this point in the 1929-32 bear market, stocks had another 75 per cent to fall before hitting bottom.

Worst of days

If another example is needed, there is always the Black Monday crash of 1987. But this could be a red herring. It was the worst single day in stock market history, but the plunge came when the market had grown very frothy, at a time when the economy was reasonably strong, and there was a swift rebound.

The economic backdrop this time is far more menacing and the market has now fallen far more from top to bottom. Comparisons with 1987 are therefore wishful thinking.

Oily slide

The other era that most closely compares is the bear market that began in 1973, coinciding with the oil price spike and the beginning of the great "stagflationary" cycle of the 1970s. The S&P fell 47.8 per cent.

At its worst so far, the 2007-08 sell-off displayed a virtually identical loss of 46.9 per cent - after reaching these depths much more swiftly.

A few months ago, with fears of inflation resurfacing as oil prices surged to unprecedented levels (just as they did, for different reasons, in 1973), this was a very popular parallel. But now, with central banks cutting rates to fight fears of deflation, the comparison looks stretched.

False bottom?

After the "internet bust" of 2000, the S&P fell 49.1 per cent. This is fresh in the mind but its lessons are questionable. It started with stocks more overvalued than ever before - and the sell-off stopped before a return to normal valuations.

But was the bottom during the WorldCom scandal of 2002 a false one? On one theory, the rebound came only because of excessive cuts in interest rates that stoked the credit bubble. That implies that this latest sell-off can end only once it has tested whether 2002 was a false bottom - meaning stocks need to fall significantly from last month's low. If they breach that, parallels with the 1930s look all the more disquieting.

这再一次振奋人心，但与此同时必须伴以警告：市场往往超调，在长期过于昂贵之后，它可能会变得过于廉价。因此，这两项衡量标准不排除这样的可能，即股价在触底前还会进一步大幅下跌，即使它们目前的定价已经相当合理。另一个多年来一直预示着股市顶部和底部的衡量标准被称作q。它指的是公司股票市值与公司净值（资产负债表上的权益价值）之间的比率。公司市值又会逐渐趋向这一标准。根据q比率，在被高估逾10年后，股价如今似乎再一次处于合理价值。

这一等式中的决定性关键因素与未来有关。这场衰退将有多严重？通常，市场底部与衰退密切相关，如果经济已经见底，几个月后即将出现更大范围的好转，市场通常会开始复苏。

因此，对那些认为本轮衰退将在明年前几个月结束的人而言，现在似乎确实有买入股票的理由，因为股价已隐含计入一次长期、严重的衰退。巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)的蒂姆•邦德(Tim Bond)表示，股市可能面临“一代人的买入机会”。根据巴克莱从信贷息差得出的经济预测模型，市场预计美国明年实际国内生产总值降幅将高达15%。相比之下，在大萧条时期，GDP平均每年收缩14.1%，其中最糟糕的1932年萎缩了23%。

如果最终形势会比这好那么一点儿——由于从上世纪30年代汲取了教训，对本轮衰退的政治反应大为不同——股市或许将开始回暖。不过，法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)驻伦敦的股票分析师、坚定的悲观主义者艾伯特•爱德华兹(Albert Edwards)认为，这是个错误。“以前，股票在衰退底部反弹不是受预测力推动，而是在利率和债券收益率暴跌之际扩大市盈率。经济的坏消息是股价的好消息。”

他认为，这一次，全球面对的是历史性的债务过剩。各国大幅降息，却既没使股市、也没使经济好转。因此，股票更有可能是与经济增长挂钩，而非债券。这进而意味着，股市可能不会在经济复苏前反弹。

不管怎样，要断定市场即将见底，必要条件是人们相信经济很快即将反弹。然而，凡事皆有两面。格兰瑟姆表示：“大泡沫往往泛滥成灾。但我们通常不会投资于估计很可能形成的泡沫，而是逐步慢慢投资，希望能有好运。”

“毕竟，如果股票很有吸引力，而你没买，机会溜走了，那么你不仅是看上去像个白痴，你就是个白痴。”

下跌期

有史以来最厉害的熊市始自1929年，至少持续至1932年，与大萧条的时间相符。标准普尔500指数下跌了86%。

尽管许多市场学者会认为这是个独立事件，但股市自1937年起再一次下跌。一年的时间里，标准普尔指数再遭54.5%的下跌，尽管年底时点位仍高于1932年以来的高点。该指数花了25年时间，才回到1929年峰值水平。

这一先例令人担忧：在1929-32年熊市的此刻，股市在触底之前又跌去了75%。

最黑暗的日子

如果还需要其它例子，人们总会提及1987年股灾的黑色星期一。但这可能是在偷换概念。这是股市历史上最糟糕的单日表现，但股市其时已充满泡沫，当时经济相当强劲，市场很快出现反弹。

本次经济形势更加险恶，目前股市整体跌幅更大。因此，与1987年进行对比只是一厢情愿的想法。

油价下滑

另一个最常用以比较的时代是1973年开始的熊市。当时恰逢油价飙升，70年代大“滞胀”周期伊始。标准普尔指数下跌了47.8%。

在迄今最坏的情况下，2007-08年度股市跌去了几乎一样多的46.9%——而这一过程的速度更快。

数个月前，随着油价飙升至空前水平（正如它们在1973年一样，但原因不同），人们开始重提对通胀的担忧，这是一种非常流行的比较。但目前，由于各国央行宣布降息，以遏制通货紧缩恐慌，这种比较看上去有点夸大。

虚假底部？

2000年互联网泡沫破灭后，标准普尔指数下跌49.1%。这一幕还令人记忆犹新，但其教训却值得怀疑。一开始，股价的高估程度超过以往任何时候——但在其回归正常估价前，人们已停止抛售。

但世通(WorldCom)公司2002年丑闻期间的底部是假的？根据一个理论，反弹仅仅是因为利率的过度下调刺激了信贷泡沫。这意味着，只有当验证2002年是否是假底部后，最近的大跌才能停止——意指股价必须在上个月低点的基础上大幅下挫。如果它们跌破这一水平，与上世纪30年代的对比会愈发令人不安。

译者/岱嵩、陈云飞