【英语财经】中印：亚洲经济的亮点!

British businesses hoping to escape recession at home might, until recently, have plausibly considered Asia a relatively safe haven from the global downturn. Until late last summer, companies would have looked smart if they had discreetly shifted resources to the one part of the world where exports were still flourishing and talk of recession seemed far-fetched. As recently as last autumn, the Asian Development Bank and others were projecting growth for this year of 7 per cent or above.

Those rosy forecasts proved flawed in two main respects. First, they misjudged the severity of the downturn in the west, as the credit crisis spread to the real economy. Second, they underestimated the strength of the links that continue to bind Asia to the rest of the world. True, Asia was no longer as dependent on global financial flows as it had been in the run-up to its own crisis in 1997-98. But it had replaced that with dependence on western demand for its manufactured products, making it even more vulnerable to an external shock.

“High value-added manufacturing is to Japan what financial services are to the UK,” says Peter Tasker of Dresdner Kleinwort, the investment bank, in a remark that could apply to many of Asia's export-oriented economies. While some in Britain have come to rue the perceived over-reliance on financial services to propel the economy, it is dawning on much of Asia that making goods for others to consume – without generating sufficient domestic demand – leaves their economies equally fragile.

Taiwan is a case in point. If Asia is the world's factory, then Taiwan is the factory's factory. Taiwanese companies produce the innards – the micro-chips and flat panels – that go into branded electronic products sold throughout the world. In the fourth quarter of last year, Taiwan's gross domestic product shrank at a savage 8.4 per cent year on year, the worst performance in its history. Exports fell by half almost overnight, as China and other assemblers of intermediate goods slashed their imports in the face of collapsing demand.

In Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and, importantly, Japan – alongside China, an Asian growth engine in its own right – the picture has been unpleasantly similar. The GDP of Japan, still comfortably the world's second-biggest economy, shrank 3.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, about 12 per cent on an annualised basis.

The International Monetary Fund is just one institution that has been chasing its economic forecasts downhill: it now predicts that growth in Asia, excluding Japan, will fall to 2.7 per cent this year, a sorry number compared with the 9 per cent mustered by the region in 2007. Given this picture, the idea that Asia could be a motor of global growth is in the words of Stephen Roach, chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, “pure fantasy”.

Amid the deepening gloom, there are two relative (if flickering) bright spots: China and India. Certainly, the speed of the downturn in China has taken the optimists by surprise, as an economy that was growing 13 per cent in 2007 slowed to a desultory 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter.

However, China's response has been equally swift: it has announced a massive stimulus package of some Rmb4,000bn (£424bn) and is using the levers of a command economy to push credit into the market.

Andy Rothman, China economist at CLSA, the brokerage, is confident Beijing has enough fiscal firepower to achieve 8 per cent growth. He cites a leading indicator of manufacturing production compiled by CLSA which shows a small rise in February, for the third consecutive month.

Although it is still below the mark associated with a growing sector, he and others see the gradual improvement as evidence that China's economy may already have hit bottom.

Mr Rothman sees some hope even in exports, which have been contracting more slowly in recent months, he says. “We attribute this to what we've been calling the Wal-Mart effect: US and European consumers are buying much less stuff, but they are increasingly down-shifting to the lowest-priced good in every category, which is almost inevitably from China.”

Paul Fletcher, senior partner of Actis, the UK private equity group, argues that China will continue to be one of the world's brighter investment opportunities, though deals may be smaller and the classic exit, via initial public offering, may have to be modified. His group is looking at deals of £35m-£70m in manufacturing, consumer products, education, budget hotels and restaurants, all areas – with the exception of hard-hit manufacturing – that it considers more or less recession proof.

India is the other exception. Its economy is less exposed to exports than practically any in Asia. True, growth is already slowing as foreign investment dries up and funds pull their money from the stockmarket, triggering a shock to confidence. Tight credit markets have affected some businesses. But the government is still forecasting 7 per cent growth this year. This is probably on the high side, but even the pessimists are expecting expansion of at least 4.5 per cent in 2010.

Pramod Bhasin, chief executive of Genpact, India's biggest business processing outsourcer, says the outsourcing businesses will continue to grow, though at a slower pace. Instead of 30 per cent expansion a year, he is predicting an average of 15 per cent over the next two years. As business conditions worsen in the US and Europe, he expects many companies to look to India to help them pare costs.

“Logic suggests we are part of the solution,” he says. But, like many, he admits it will be rough and unpredictable. He is also hedging his bets. His prediction for the outsourcing industry's next big growth opportunity: “How can we serve distressed asset buyers?”

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Case study: China

China has been inundated with so much foreign direct investment over the past decade that it can often appear like a paradise for multinationals. In 2007, the country received a record $84bn, writes Geoff Dyer.

Companies from across the world have rushed to build new factories in China not just because of the plentiful cheap labour, but also because of the roads and ports that far surpass the facilities in most emerging markets.

When the wave of FDI started in the 1990s, the governments of provinces in the coastal regions of China were keen to attract manufacturing companies to set up operations. More recently, Beijing, Shanghai and other developed regions have shifted emphasis towards trying to bring research and development activities to China. Researchers estimate that more than 300 multinationals now have some form of R&D operation in China, even if the majority are adapting products for the local market.

Among UK companies, both AstraZeneca and GlaxoSmithKline – the two largest pharmaceuticals groups – have established research operations in Shanghai in the past two years.

Foreign companies often find they receive more encouragement from local governments if they are willing to invest in less well-known cities, especially in central and western China. Indeed, many of those inland cities are starting to become more attractive, in part because they are less affected by slumping exports and because they will benefit from the government's fiscal stimulus plans. “They are somewhat sheltered from the global economic storm,” according to Jones Lang LaSalle, the property consultancy.

直至最近，希望逃避国内衰退的英国企业可能还会貌似有理地考虑将亚洲作为躲避全球经济衰退相对安全的避风港。在去年夏末之前，如果企业谨慎地将资源转移到这个全世界唯一一处出口仍旧兴旺、有关衰退的言论貌似牵强的地区，他们会显得很明智。就在去年秋季，亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)和其它机构还在预测今年亚洲的增长率达到7%或以上。

这些乐观的预测主要存在两方面的问题。首先，他们误判了西方经济衰退的严重程度，信贷危机已经蔓延至实体经济。其次，他们低估了亚洲与世界其它地区仍然存在的紧密联系。的确，亚洲不再像1997年至1998年亚洲金融危机爆发前夕那样依赖于全球金融的流动，但却转而依赖于西方对该地区制造产品的需求，这使得亚洲地区甚至更容易受到外部动荡的影响。

投资银行德利佳华(Dresdner Kleinwort)的彼得•塔斯克(Peter Tasker)表示：“高附加值制造业之于日本就如同金融服务业之于英国。”这种说法可能适用于亚洲许多出口导向型经济体。英国有些人已经开始对于明显过分依赖金融服务业推动经济感到后悔，而在亚洲，大部分人都已经认识到为其它国家制造产品供其消费——无法产生足够的国内需求——让他们的经济变得同样脆弱。

台湾就是最好的例子。如果亚洲是世界的工厂，那么台湾就是工厂中的工厂。台湾企业为销往世界各地的品牌电子产品生产微芯片和平板显示屏等部件。去年第四季度，台湾的GDP同比骤降8.4%，为历史上最糟糕的表现。随着中国和其它半成品组装地因需求锐减而减少进口，台湾出口几乎在一夜间便减少了一半。

在新加坡、韩国、香港，最重要的是在日本，形势同样令人不安。日本仍轻松占据全球第二大经济体的位置，但去年第四季度的GDP萎缩了3.3%，折合成年率计算则萎缩了约12%。其邻国中国则凭借自身实力成为亚洲增长引擎。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)不过是不断下调亚洲地区经济预测的机构之一：目前该组织预计今年亚洲（不包括日本）增长率将下降至2.7%，与2007年9%的增长率相比，这个数字显得少得可怜。鉴于此番情形，亚洲可能成为全球增长发动机的想法，用摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲董事长史蒂芬•罗奇(Stephen Roach)的话来说，是“纯粹的幻想”。

在这片日益浓重的黑暗之中，有两个相对的亮点（虽然也忽明忽暗）：中国和印度。当然，中国经济下滑的速度已经令乐观派感到惊讶：这个2007年增长率达13%的经济体去年第四季度的增长率突然放缓为6.8%。

然而，中国的反应同样迅速：中国政府已经宣布了约4万亿元人民币的庞大经济刺激方案，并利用指令经济的手段向市场发放信贷。

里昂证券(CLSA)中国经济学家安迪•罗斯曼(Andy Rothman)相信中国政府拥有足够的财政力量来实现8%的增长目标。他援引里昂证券编制的一项制造业先行指标作为证据。该指标2月份小幅上涨，为连续第三个月上升。

尽管该指标尚未达到表明行业出现增长的标准，但罗斯曼等人把这种逐步改善看作中国经济或许已经触底的证明。

罗斯曼甚至看到了出口行业的一些希望。近几个月来，中国出口收缩的速度有所放缓。他表示：“我们将此归因于沃尔玛效应(Wal-Mart effect)：欧美消费者大量减少购物，但同时他们也逐渐转向购买每种类别中价格最低的商品，这些商品几乎必然来自中国。”

英国私人股本集团英联投资(Actis)高级合伙人保罗•弗莱彻(Paul Fletcher)认为，中国仍将是世界上较有前途的投资机会之一，尽管交易规模可能较小，同时首次公开发行(IPO)这种惯用的退出模式可能必须进行调整。英联投资正在制造业、消费品、教育、经济型酒店和饭店业寻求规模在3500万至7000万英镑的交易。他们认为所有这些行业——除了受到重创的制造业——都或多或少具有抗击经济衰退的能力。

印度是另一个例外。其经济对出口的依赖度实际上比亚洲其它任何国家都低。没错，由于外资枯竭，基金从股市撤离，印度的增长已经放缓，并引发了信心的波动。信贷市场紧缩已经影响到一些企业。但印度政府仍预计今年经济将增长7%。这可能有点偏高，但即使是悲观主义者也预计2010年印度经济至少增长4.5%。

印度最大的业务流程外包公司Genpact首席执行官帕拉蒙•哈辛(Pramod Bhasin)表示，外包业务将继续增长，尽管速度将有所放慢。他预计未来两年的平均增长率将为15%，而不是30%。随着欧美经济形势恶化，他预计许多公司会考虑到印度来，以帮助削减成本。

他表示：“从逻辑上考虑，我们能够解决部分问题。”但和许多人一样，他承认，这将是困难且难以预测的。他还回避了正面回答。他对外包业下一个巨大增长机会的预测是：“我们如何能为问题资产的买家服务？”

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个例研究：中国

全世界的企业都竞相前往中国设立新工厂，不只是因为那里有着大量的廉价劳动力，还因为那里的道路和港口远远优于大多数新兴市场的基础设施。

在上世纪90年代FDI浪潮兴起之际，中国沿海地区的各省市热情地吸引制造业企业前往当地开设工厂。但在近期，北京、上海和其它发达地区已将重点转向吸引研发活动进入中国。研究人员估计，有逾300家跨国企业目前在中国从事某种形式的研发活动，即使大多数只是为当地市场改装产品。

英国企业中，最大的两家制药集团阿斯利康(AstraZeneca)和葛兰素史克(GlaxoSmithKline)在过去两年里都已在上海成立了研究机构。

外资企业经常发现，如果他们愿意在不那么知名的城市进行投资——特别是在中国的中西部地区——就会得到当地政府的更多奖励。实际上，许多内陆城市开始变得更具吸引力，部分原因是他们受出口锐减的影响较小，并将受益于政府的财政刺激计划。房地产咨询公司仲量联行(Jones Lang LaSalle)表示：“他们在某种程度上受到了保护，躲开了全球经济风暴。”

不过，外资集团在中国的境况并非像表面数据显示的那么简单。首先，近几年的政治气候已经变得有些不赞成向外国投资开放。10年前的普遍观点是中国需要海外技术和经验来发展经济，但现在中国更加自信，这改变了争论的焦点。

一些引人注目的交易有时因遭到民族主义者的强烈反对而搁浅。在2005年宣布拟议收购中国东部一家建筑机械制造商后，私人股本集团凯雷(Carlyle)发现自己成了一场猛烈的互联网攻击运动的目标。而这项交易则根本没有获得批准。可口可乐(Coca-Cola)对汇源果汁(Huiyuan)的收购也受到民族主义者的反对。该笔交易被视为对中国新反垄断法的一次重要早期考验。