【英语中国】中国需求减弱给煤炭业带来挑战

China's appetite for coal, once seemingly unlimited, is starting to wane, and the effects are rippling far from the Middle Kingdom.

With the world's second-largest economy, China in recent years has been driving demand for all sorts of commodities, especially thermal coal, which is used to fuel power plants. But now economic growth in China is slowing, and rising public anger over air pollution is increasing pressure on utilities running the country's coal-burning power plants to shift to nuclear power and natural gas.

China was supposed to have been the sector's savior. Market watchers in recent years have based expectations of rising thermal-coal prices--which have plunged from their 2008 peaks--on robust growth in China and a global economic recovery.

But Premier Li Keqiang has set a 7.5% growth target for China's economy this year, the slowest rate since 1990. And Beijing says it wants to reduce industry's so-called energy intensity--or the amount of energy used per unit of economic output--while shifting to cleaner fuels. The government is planning the biggest rollout of new nuclear reactors in the world, further undermining demand for thermal coal.

Weakening demand from China--the largest consumer of coal in the world--comes at a bad time for international producers, who are already suffering from a crippling oversupply in the market. Producers of thermal coal are scaling back plans, particularly in Australia, which is second only to Indonesia in thermal coal exports. A proposal to double capacity at Newcastle port, the world's largest coal export facility, has been shelved. Analysts predict that many new mines may become unviable, and that the most expensive existing mines will be forced to cut back or close.

Smaller Australian miners will find it increasingly difficult to finance projects, while large, diversified resources companies are likely to shift their focus toward more attractive commodities. BHP Billiton Ltd., BHP.AU -0.79% for one, has ruled out further expansion of its coal-mining business.

Global coal consumption could grow as little as 2% a year through 2017 in the face of weakening Chinese demand, according to the International Energy Agency's most recent coal-market report. Long-term estimates for Chinese coal demand, for the year 2035, range from 3.66 billion tons of coal equivalent, up from 2.29 billion tons in 2010, to as low as 1.51 billion tons, depending on Beijing's environmental policies.

Further darkening the picture for international producers, most of the coal that Chinese utilities are likely to buy in the future will be local. That's because the country sits on trillions of tons of coal reserves, so domestic mines should meet most of China's demand for thermal coal as long as prices remain low and transportation costs affordable, says a Beijing-based coal trader who declined to be named. As a result, UBS expects Chinese coal imports to decline steadily.

Australian thermal coal destined for Asia currently is near its lowest price since 2009. Commonwealth Bank of Australia CBA.AU -0.07% analyst Lachlan Shaw sees prices rising but recently cut his coal-price forecast 2% to US$86 a ton for 2014. He expects the market will edge higher to US$95 a ton by 2018, still a downgrade of more than 10% on the bank's earlier price forecast.

Goldman Sachs GS +1.17% also has taken the knife to its forecasts, cutting its 2014 price estimate 13% to US$83 a ton and warning that the window to invest profitably in new thermal coal mines is closing.

中国对煤炭的胃口曾像是个无底洞，但现在也开始有所减弱，这一情形产生的影响正波及中国以外的其它地方。

世界第二大经济体中国近年来一直在推高对各种大宗商品的需求，特别是发电厂发电所需的电煤需求。但现在中国经济增长开始放缓，民众对空气污染与日俱增的怒火也给该国运营煤电厂的公用事业公司带来了压力，不得不转而寻求使用核电和天然气。

Bloomberg News天津和中国其他港口的煤炭进口放缓，影响波及全球其他地区的煤炭出口商。过去，人们一直以为中国是煤炭业的救星。近年来，市场观察人士将电煤价格上涨的预期都是建立在中国增长强劲和全球经济复苏上。电煤价格2008年达到峰值后便开始暴跌。

但中国国务院总理李克强已将今年中国经济增长目标定为7.5%，这是1990年以来的最低增速。北京说，希望在转而使用清洁能源的同时，减少业内所谓的能源强度（单位经济产出消耗的能源量）。中国政府现正计划将一批新核反应堆投入使用，规模为全球最大，以进一步降低对电煤的需求。

中国是全球最大的煤炭消费国，其需求减弱恰逢全球生产商身陷困境之时。这些生产商已开始感受到市场上严重的供大于求之苦。电煤生产商目前正在缩减计划，特别是在澳大利亚的生产计划。澳大利亚是仅次于印尼的第二大电煤出口国。将全球最大的煤炭出口港纽卡斯尔港的运力增加一倍的提议已被搁置。分析人士预测，很多新煤矿可能无法存活下来，而那些开采成本极高的矿山将被迫缩减规模或关闭。

小一些的澳大利亚矿商会发现为项目融资变得越来越难，而经营业务多元化的大型资源公司可能会将重点放在更有吸引力的大宗商品上。例如，必和必拓(BHP Billiton Ltd.)就已经不再考虑进一步扩大煤矿开采业务。

国际能源署(International Energy Agency)发布的最新煤炭市场报告显示，由于中国需求减弱，到2017年底全球煤炭消耗量的增幅可能低至2%。长期估测显示，2035年中国煤炭需求将在36.6亿吨（高于2010年的22.9亿吨）至15.1亿吨煤当量之间，具体取决于北京方面的环境政策。

令全球生产商前景更为黯淡的是，中国公用事业公司未来可能购买的大多数煤炭都将是本国所产。一位不愿具名的北京煤炭交易员说，这是因为中国坐拥数万亿吨煤储量，所以国内煤矿应该可以满足中国对电煤的大部分需求，只要电煤价格保持在低位且运输成本处于可负担范围。因此，瑞银(UBS)认为中国的煤炭进口量将稳步下降。

澳大利亚输往亚洲的电煤价格目前接近2009年以来的最低水平。澳大利亚联邦银行(Commonwealth Bank of Australia)的分析师Lachlan Shaw认为价格将不断上涨，但前不久将自己对2014年煤价预测降到每吨86美元，下调幅度为2%。据他预测，到2018年煤价将上涨至每吨95美元，较澳大利亚联邦银行早前的价格预测仍低超过10%。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)也开始“操刀”，将2014年的煤价预期下调了13%，至每吨83美元，并警告称，投资于新建电煤矿并获利的窗口即将关闭。