【英语中国】台湾陷入政治风暴 马英九支持率大降

Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's attempt to oust a well-liked legislative speaker has dragged his approval ratings down into the single digits, sparking the question why a seasoned politician like Mr. Ma is willing to risk his political capital just to sack one person.

For almost two weeks, Taiwan's fractious political establishment has debated why the ruling party Kuomintang, or Chinese Nationalist Party, chose this time to blackball its longstanding heavyweight and legislative speaker Wang Jin-pyng.

The escalating political crisis has plunged Mr. Ma's approval rating down to a new low of 9.2% from 13%, according to a poll conducted by ERA Survey Research Center.

The fracas started on Sept. 6 when the Supreme Prosecutors Office unexpectedly held a news conference accusing speaker Wang, Justice Minister Tseng Yung-fu, and a chief prosecutor of using their influence to block prosecutors from filing an appeal after an opposition party member was found not guilty on embezzlement charges.

All three insist allegations that they meddled in the case were unfounded and said the prosecutors obtained their evidence through illegal wiretapping, a behavior Mr. Ma has sworn to abolish. Minister Tseng later agreed to step down at the urging of the premier. He maintains his claim of innocence.

The speaker wasn't immediately available for comments on the day the allegations were made because he was in Malaysia attending his daughter's wedding banquet. To add to the drama, during his absence, President Ma said the speaker's alleged misconduct had stained the island's judiciary and legal system, calling it 'the darkest day in Taiwan's democratic history.

Under the banner of party unity and preservation of Taiwan's legal system, Mr. Ma, who is also the KMT chairman, urged the party disciplinary committee to penalize Mr. Wang whose membership was subsequently revoked by the committee. Mr. Wang's status as a legislator-at-large and speaker remains in limbo amid the appeals process.

So why the heavy-handed treatment of Mr. Wang?

Since Mr. Ma began his presidency in 2008, several officials have been indicted on various charges. Just last month, a KMT Taipei city councilor, Lai Su-Ru, who also served as the president's legal advisor, was indicted for taking bribes. Ms. Lai, now released on bail, was suspended by the party but her membership stays intact.

In June, the government ombudsman agreed to impeach Mr. Ma's former top aide Lin Yi-shih after he was indicted on bribery charges. Mr. Lin remains a KMT party member.

Political pundits from both ends of the spectrum agree there has been bad blood between Messrs. Ma and Wang since 2005 when both ran for the KMT chairmanship. Others say the China-friendly President Ma is eager to dump the 12-term speaker because he was seen as giving in too much to the opposition over a controversial service-trade pact with China which naysayers claim would jeopardize Taiwan's service industry and small- and medium-size businesses.

Hsu Chung-hsin, a lawmaker from the pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Party, says President Ma is seeking to get rid of Mr. Wang because he agreed to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party's demand to review the agreement article by article, which increases the chance for defeat of the pact, in part or in its entirety.

In an interview with CtiTV Wednesday, President Ma strongly refuted that his action was aimed at Mr. Wang, saying his motive is to safeguard the justice system.

'There was never a plan to annihilate Mr. Wang. That is a ridiculous and completely untrue claim,' said the president. He called the matter 'not a political war, or a bill. This is a scandal.'

President Ma's supporters also insist that their commander-in-chief is upholding Taiwan judiciary system without discrimination.

'The shot [fired by the president] was not solely aimed at Mr. Wang but rather aimed at the longstanding nasty habit of illegal lobbying in Taiwan's politics,' said an editorial that appeared in the government-friendly newspaper United Daily on Sept. 12.

Foreign investors seem to be unfazed by the political spat. Stock analysts said foreign inflow picked up during the first few days after the scandal broke out and the selling pressure mainly came from local players.

'Local investors are very sensitive to the twists and turns of Taiwan's politics but foreign investors actually see it as an opportunity to pass the long-awaited service pact with China,' said Benson Huang, an analyst at Horizon Securities.

Apart from the Taiwan-Chinese service pact, the legislature is scheduled to review several important bills by the end of the year, including the government's annual budget, a referendum on Taiwan's fourth nuclear power plant, and a trade agreement with New Zealand.

'Without Mr. Wang as the go-between for the ruling and the opposition parties, the legislature will fall into a state of chaos for a little while but after the temporary turmoil subsides, things will soon pick up,' said Mr. Huang.

台湾总统马英九试图罢免一位深得民心的立法院长，这一行动将他的支持率拉低至10%以下，令人质疑为何像马英九这样一位老练的政治家愿意拿自己的政治资本冒险，只是为了将一个人撤职。

European Pressphoto Agency台湾总统马英九的民意支持率不断下降。图为他在一个典礼上问候退伍老兵。近两周来，台湾争吵不休的政界一直在激辩，为何执政的国民党选择这个时候排斥其长期以来的重量级人物、立法院长王金平。

ERA Survey Research Center进行的一次民意调查显示，不断升级的政治危机令马英九的支持率从13%下降至9.2%的新低。

争吵始于9月6日。当时，最高法院检察署出人意料地召开了一次新闻发布会，指责立法院长王金平、法务部长曾勇夫和一位检察长利用其影响力阻止检方上诉。此前，一名反对党成员被控贪污但获判无罪。

上述三人均坚称，说他们干涉那起案件的指控毫无根据，并说检方是通过非法窃听获取证据，而这是马英九发誓要摒弃的行为。法务部长曾勇夫后来在行政院长的敦促下同意辞职。他坚持说自己是清白的。

王金平受到指控的当天在马来西亚参加女儿的婚礼，记者无法联络其发表评论。令事态进一步戏剧化的是，王金平不在台湾期间，马英九说王被指的不当行为玷污了台湾的司法和法律制度，说这是台湾民主历史上最黑暗的一天。

马英九是国民党的主席，他以党内团结和维护台湾司法体系为名，敦促国民党考纪会惩罚王金平，之后王金平的党籍被撤销。在上诉过程中，王金平不分区立委的资格和立法院长身分处于待决状态。

那么，为什么要如此强硬处理王金平呢？

自从马英九2008年就任总统以来，已经有数名官员因各种指控被起诉。就在上个月，马英九的法律顾问、国民党籍台北市议员赖素如涉嫌受贿遭起诉。赖素如如今已经取保候审，她的党内职务被暂停，但党员身份无虞。

今年6月，政府监察机构同意弹劾马英九前高层幕僚林益世，此前他已经因涉嫌借权力谋利被提起诉讼。林益世目前仍是国民党党员。

台湾两党的政治权威人士都说，马英九和王金平自2005年一同竞选党主席时就闹不和。还有人说，亲中国大陆的马英九急于撤掉这位立法院长是因为，在涉及与中国大陆的一项服务贸易协议的争议中，王金平被认为向反对派人士让步过多。反对派说，协议将损害台湾的服务业和中小企业。

倾向独立的党派台湾团结联盟的立委许忠信说，马英九想要除掉王金平，因为王同意反对党民进党的要求，重新对协议进行逐条审议，而这增加了协议部分或全盘被推翻的机会。

周三在中天电视的一次访谈中，马英九强烈驳斥了他这样做是针对王金平的说法，说自己的动机是为了捍卫司法体系。

马英九说，从来没有“灭王计划”，这种说法荒唐、无中生有。他说这件事不是一场政争，也不是法案，这就是一个弊案。

马英九的支持者也坚称，他们的总司令是在一视同仁地维护台湾司法。

亲政府报纸《联合报》(United Daily)在9月12日的一则社论文章中说，马英九的这一枪不能看成只是瞄准王金平个人而发，而是对准了整个政坛积重难返的关说恶习的当头一击。

外国投资者似乎对这次政坛口水战无动于衷。股市分析师说，在丑闻爆发后的最初几天，外资流入上升，卖盘压力主要来自本地投资者。

宏远证券(Horizon Securities)的分析师Benson Huang说，本地投资者对台湾的政情变化非常敏感，但外国投资者实际上把这看作一个让等待已久的服务贸易协议获得通过的机会。

除了台湾与大陆的服务贸易协议，立法机构还将按计划在年底前审议几项重要法案，包括政府的年度预算、台湾第四核能发电厂的公投以及与新西兰的一项贸易协议。

Benson Huang说，没有王金平在执政党和反对党之间牵线搭桥，立法机构会在短时间内乱作一团，但等暂时性的混乱消退之后，一切就会很快好转。