【英语中国】菲律宾欲重启苏比克美军基地以对抗中国

In 1991, after the Philippine Senate voted to close Subic Naval Base--then the largest American overseas military facility--an emotional Sen. Agapito Aquino summed up the popular mood. It was, he said, 'the dawn of our nation's birth.'

Tossing out the Americans from Subic and nearby Clark Air Base, he added, had ended the country's 'crippling dependence' on its former colonial overlord.

Now, the Philippines wants American forces back in Subic to counter Chinese moves off the Philippine coast. Just west of Subic, Chinese ships have fenced off the Scarborough Shoal, one of the world's richest fishing grounds, which falls within the Philippines's 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone.

This month, Manila also produced evidence that suggested China is preparing to build permanent structures on Scarborough, as it has done on other rocky outcrops in the South China Sea.

To the south, Chinese paramilitary vessels have chased away oil survey ships along the gas-rich Reed Bank, also claimed by Manila.

China has offered joint exploration for oil and gas off the Philippines, and denies it's getting ready to build structures on Scarborough. But the Philippines feels bullied--and defenseless. Fear of China is trumping nationalism. And negotiations on bringing U.S. forces back to Subic, and other spots around the Philippines, are under way.

As a practical matter, the Americans could come back to Subic tomorrow. The Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, which now runs Subic as a free port, has preserved the corrugated steel-roofed quonset huts that once housed American enlisted personnel. The officers' homes--sturdy, breeze block structures with balcony views over the harbor--are available for rent. Some of them have been refurbished by Korean business executives and other investors in the area's shipbuilding and electronics industries.

The Subic airport has plenty of spare capacity. Its runway, long enough for bombers to rumble down, now handles mainly corporate jets and recreational aircraft.

The piers where American aircraft carriers once tied up are largely empty, although a nearby boat club is filled with luxury yachts owned by Hong Kong millionaires who jet in for weekends.

But bringing back the once-spurned Yanks won't be so simple. The reasons illustrate the way that China's rapid rise as a regional military power--one that now possesses fleets of modern warships, nuclear-powered submarines, ballistic missiles and stealth fighters--has reshaped the calculus for Pentagon planners in Asia since that vote to eject the American forces.

For a start, the Philippines itself would have to reverse a constitutional ban on allowing a foreign power to establish a permanent military base. But assuming that was possible, America still wouldn't be interested. Bases are potential sitting ducks for Chinese missiles. Plus, they are expensive. At a time of budget cuts, it's far cheaper to sign a treaty with friendly countries guaranteeing access for U.S. forces than to pay rent. In military-speak, America wants 'places not bases.'

As important, U.S. military moves in Asia now must be weighed against the risk of provoking China at a time when tensions over territorial claims in the South China Sea are running high. China's claims to almost the entire stretch of water, along with its islets, reefs and sandbanks, are contested not just by the Philippines but also Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan.

Washington doesn't take a position on the sovereignty claims, but the danger is that it could get caught up in any hostilities, dragging the U.S. military into direct conflict with nuclear-armed China. Nor do Asian countries want to be forced to take sides between China and the U.S.

The U.S. is cautious about offending China for other reasons, too. China already feels encircled by a network of U.S. military alliances stretching from Japan to Australia. As numerous analysts have pointed out, China isn't the Soviet Union. It may be pushing back against U.S. military hegemony in Asia, but unlike the Soviet Union it's also an economic partner--America's biggest creditor and a key investment destination for U.S. auto companies, retailers and plane makers.
So what do the Philippines and the U.S. have to talk about?

Roberto Garcia, the chairman of the Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority, says one proposal is to place a Philippine Air Force fighter wing at the airport, providing a base that could be used by the U.S. Air Force. Subic already hosts Philippine naval vessels, and U.S. Navy ships have restricted access. That access will likely be expanded.

Washington also has provided two 1960s-vintage decommissioned U.S. Coast Guard cutters that use Subic as their home base. They are hardly state of the art--'hand-me-downs,' grumbles Aquilino 'Nene' Pimentel, the former president of the Philippine Senate--but the Gregorio del Pinar and the Ramon Alcaraz are now the flagships of the Philippine Navy, alongside World War II-era patrol boats.

The two countries have a mutual defense treaty, and U.S. forces are helping the Philippines defeat a Muslim insurgency in the southern island of Mindanao. But the go-go days of Subic as a bustling base seem destined for the mists of Cold War history, regardless of what agreements the Philippines and the U.S. reach in their current talks.

Mitch Schranz, a now-retired U.S. military chaplain who was one of the last Americans to leave Subic, and then moved back to raise a family with his Filipina wife, recalls the raucous celebrations when aircraft carrier battle groups used to sail in after months at sea, disgorging several thousand sailors into the all-night honky-tonk bars of nearby Olongapo.

'It was like the Fourth of July, New Year's Eve and Mardi Gras all rolled into one,' he says.

For some of the romantic liaisons born from those wild nights, Subic ran a Bride School that tutored Filipinas in the ways of American domestic life, including how to use a pop-up toaster, he recalls.

The Americans employed as many as 30,000 locals, including skilled welders and pipe fitters. High-paid jobs were handed down from father to son. Elite workers formed their own bowling leagues on base.

When Subic closed 'there was a collective depression,' said Mr. Schranz. 'After 100 years--poof--the place was gone'

1991年，菲律宾参议院投票批准关闭苏比克海军基地(Subic Naval Base)后，激动的参议员阿基诺(Agapito Aquino)的一句话概况了人们的普遍心声。他说，这是我们国家诞生的开端。该基地当时是美国最大的海外军事基地。

他还说，将美国人赶出苏比克和附近的克拉克空军基地(Clark Air Base)终止了菲律宾对前殖民统治者的极其不利的依赖。

Agence France-Presse1992年11月，美国USS BelleauWood号航空母舰载着最后一批驻菲律宾苏比克湾海军基地的美国海军离开Cubi点，前往日本冲绳。菲律宾民众在岸上围观。现在菲律宾想让美国军队返回苏比克，以应对中国在菲律宾沿海的行动。在苏比克以西，中国船只已将斯卡伯勒浅滩（Scarborough Shoal，中国称黄岩岛）围起来，黄岩岛是全球资源最丰富的渔场之一，在菲律宾的200海里专属经济区范围之内。

本月，菲律宾政府还拿出证据，显示中国准备黄岩岛建设永久工程。中国之前曾在南中国海（中国称南海）的其他礁岩上采取同样的做法。

在苏比克以南，中国海监船已驱赶走天然气资源丰富的礼乐滩(Reed Bank)沿岸的石油勘探船只，菲律宾政府也声称对礼乐滩拥有主权。

中国已提出联合开发菲律宾群岛沿海油气资源的建议，并否认准备在黄岩岛建设工程。但菲律宾感觉受到威胁，并且毫无防备。对中国的担忧已经超过了民族主义情绪。围绕让美军重返苏比克和其他菲律宾附近基地的磋商正在进行当中。

实际上，美国人明天就可以重返苏比克。目前将苏比克作为一个自由港来进行管理的苏比克湾管理署(Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority)保留了美国士兵此前居住的波纹钢屋顶活动房屋。军官们此前居住的房屋（为坚固的焦渣石结构，并且有可以看到海港的阳台）目前用于出租。其中一些房屋已被韩国商业高管等投资该地区造船和电子行业的投资者翻新。

苏比克机场还有大量的闲置吞吐能力。该机场跑道（长度足够轰炸机降落）目前主要供商务客机和娱乐用飞机使用。

曾供美国航空母舰停靠的码头现在基本闲置，但附近有一个游艇俱乐部，里面都是香港百万富翁所有的豪华游艇，他们通常在周末乘飞机来到这里。

European Pressphoto Agency今年6月，在马尼拉西部进行的一场军事演习中，一名美国海军士兵正在训练一名菲律宾士兵使用机枪。但让曾经被赶走的美国人返回这里不会那么简单。其原因显示出自菲律宾参议院投票批准赶走美军以来，中国作为地区军事大国的迅速崛起以怎样的方式令五角大楼规划者改变了其在亚洲的算盘。中国军事力量目前包括现代舰队、核动力潜艇、弹道导弹以及隐形战斗机。

首先，菲律宾自身将需要取消一项有关允许外国在该国建立永久军事基地的宪法禁令。但假设这是有可能实现的，美国仍不会对此有兴趣。这里的军事基地很容易成为中国导弹的靶子。此外，这样做成本高昂。在预算紧缩之际，与友好国签署确保美军能够进驻的条约要比付租金更划算。从军事角度说，美国希望获得可进驻的地方而不是基地。

同样重要的是，美国目前在亚洲采取军事举措的同时，必须考虑到在围绕南中国海领土主张的紧张局势升温之际可能激怒中国的风险。中国称对几乎整个南中国海及其岛屿、暗礁和沙洲拥有主权，这不仅遭到了菲律宾的质疑，也遭到了越南、文莱、马来西亚和台湾的质疑。

华盛顿在南中国海主权问题上不持立场，但危险是它可能被卷入任何敌对行动，从而将美国军队拖入与拥有核武器的中国的直接冲突中。亚洲国家也不希望被迫在中国和美国两者之间选边站。

美国谨慎避免冒犯中国，还有其他原因。中国已经感觉被从日本到澳大利亚的美国军事联盟之网包围。正如很多分析人士指出的，中国不是苏联。中国可能抵制美国在亚洲的军事霸权，但与苏联不同的是，中国也是一个经济合作伙伴——中国是美国最大的债权国，也是美国汽车企业、零售商和飞机制造商的一个主要投资目的地。

那么菲律宾能与美国讨论些什么问题呢？

苏比克湾管理署的负责人加西亚(Roberto Garcia)说，一项提议是在该机场派驻一支菲律宾空军战斗机联队，提供一个美国空军可以使用的基地。苏比克已经停靠有菲律宾海军舰船，美国海军舰船拥有有限的使用权。这种使用权可能会扩大。

华盛顿还提供了两艘上世纪60年代制造的、已退役的美国海岸警卫队巡逻舰，这两艘巡逻舰把苏比克作为大本营。这两艘巡逻舰并不先进——前菲律宾参议院主席皮门特尔(Aquilino "Nene" Pimentel)抱怨说是二手货，但“德尔毕拉尔”号(Gregorio del Pinar)和“艾卡拉兹”号(Ramon Alcaraz)以及二战时期的多艘巡逻舰目前是菲律宾海军的旗舰。

美国和菲律宾签订有共同防御条约，美国部队目前正在帮助菲律宾打击南部棉兰老岛上的穆斯林叛乱。但苏比克作为一个繁忙基地的盛景似乎注定成为冷战时期的一段历史，无论菲律宾和美国在眼下的会谈中达成什么协议。

现已退休的美国随军牧师施兰茨(Mitch Schranz)曾是最后离开苏比克的那批美国人中的一位，他后来又回到苏比克，娶了一位菲律宾太太并生儿育女。他回忆起航母作战群在出海数月后返回基地时的热闹庆祝场面，数千名船员到附近奥隆阿波的通宵廉价酒吧狂欢。

他说，就像是美国国庆节、新年前夜和狂欢节赶到了一块一样。

他回忆说，对那些疯狂夜晚中诞生的一些恋情来说，苏比克有一所新娘学校，教授菲律宾人美国家庭的生活方式，包括如何使用弹出式烤面包机。

美国人雇用了多达3万名当地人，包括熟练的焊工和管道安装工。高薪工作从父亲传给儿子。精英工人在基地组建了他们自己的保龄球联赛。

施兰茨说，苏比克关闭时，大家都很难过；经过了100年后，这个地方突然一下子没有了。