【英语中国】中国PMI指数升至16个月以来高位

A gauge of China’s manufacturing sector jumped to a 16-month high in August as the economy rallied with government policy support.

The official Chinese purchasing managers’ index climbed from 50.3 in July to 51 in August, topping most forecasts for the second straight month. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in activity.

After a shaky half year for the Chinese economy, the strong PMI results bode well for the coming months.

“The data continued to beat expectations. It’s good news. It suggests that the economic recovery is improving,” said Zhu Haibin, an economist with JPMorgan. “It’s moving from downside risks to upside risks.”

Analysts have pointed to two main factors for the upturn. First, credit growth surged at the start of the year, and that wave of financing is now translating into real economic activity.

Second, over the past three months, the government has provided a “mini-stimulus”, cutting taxes for small businesses, supporting exporters and, above all, boosting investment in rail and infrastructure.

Liu Ligang and Zhou Hao, economists with ANZ, calculated that 58 per cent of the government’s full-year budget will be spent in the second half of the year.

Adding to the optimism, the PMI index for new orders – a leading indicator for the economy – jumped to 52.4, from 50.6 in July. The rise reflected not only strong domestic demand, but an improvement in external demand as the index for new export orders rose from 49 to 50.2.

Nevertheless, the PMI still revealed a sharp divergence in fortunes across China’s vast economy. The PMI for big businesses was 51.8, but smaller businesses posted their 17th successive month of contracting activity with a reading of 49.2.

8月份中国制造业的一个指数升至16个月以来高位。中国经济在政府政策支持下回升。

8月份，中国官方的采购经理指数(PMI)从7月的50.3升至51，连续第二个月超出多数预测。该指数高于50意味着制造业活动扩张。

中国经济经历了半年的波动之后，强劲的PMI指数预示着未来几个月的好兆头。

摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家朱海滨说：“数据继续超出预期。这是好消息，表明经济复苏正在加速，正在从下行风险转变为上行风险。”

分析师指出这种好转趋势有两个主要原因。第一，年初信贷大幅增长，这股资金洪流正在转化为实体经济活动。

第二，过去的三个月，政府出台了一些“迷你刺激举措”，为小企业削减税收、支持出口商，最重要的是提振铁路和基础设施投资。

澳新银行(ANZ)经济学家刘利刚和周皓预计，政府全年预算的58%将在下半年支出。

除了这种乐观之外，经济先行指标——PMI新订单分类指数也从7月的50.6升至52.4，不仅反映了强大的国内需求，也体现了外部需求的改善，因为新出口订单分类指数从49升至50.2。

然而，PMI指数也揭示了中国庞大经济体内部的巨大差异。大企业的PMI是51.8，而小企业的PMI只有49.2，其制造业活动连续第17个月出现收缩。

译者/王慧玲