【英语财经】国际金融协会：新兴市场复苏难持续 EM recovery will not last, IIF data show

This year’s recovery in emerging market economies has continued in the second quarter, according to the latest EM growth tracker from the Institute of International Finance, an industry group.

It shows GDP growth across emerging markets edging up 0.1 percentage points to 3.4 per cent in April at a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate, putting growth across EMs 0.4 pp above its 12-month moving average.

If confirmed, the data show EM economies continuing to rebound from a low reached in the first quarter of 2015, when aggregated actual GDP growth fell to 2.5 per cent a year, according to the IIF.

Are EMs on the road to recovery? The idea that EMs are cyclical, to the extent of moving in line with commodity prices, certainly has its followers. But the IIF’s analysts do not buy that.

Hung Tran, the IIF’s director for capital markets, said that EMs had indeed been enjoying a rebound, but doubted it would last.

“What we have been seeing is a short-term cyclical rebound helped along by developed market central banks and by the People’s Bank of China,” he said. “But the long-term structural headwinds are still there and getting stronger.”

He said that the pick-up in economic activity across EMs had been driven by rising commodity prices, driven in turn by demand from China on the back of total credit expansion in China of more than 40 per cent in the first quarter.

“The story is the same,” he said. “The debt overhand has only got bigger. The PBoC and other central banks can provide short-term support here and there but without tackling structural issues they won’t address the real challenge. The bumpy road ahead doesn’t exclude the kind of short-term pick-up we have seen in the past few months.”

The IIF’s EM growth tracker is built from data in three categories: business surveys, hard data and financial variables.

Financial variables showed the strongest growth in April, driven by rising prices for oil and metals and for EM equities and bonds.

Among hard data, trade was the main source of strength, the IIF said, driven by better export growth in Argentina and Indonesia. But the picture was uneven: those two countries plus Brazil and Thailand were the only four out of 10 monitored by the IIF to see growth in merchandise exports over the past three months.

Industrial production was flat: it was positive in China, though less so than previously, while IP in EM ex-China continued to slow, also less so than previously.

Business surveys tracked downwards in April, undoing half of their recovery in March.

全球性金融业协会——国际金融协会(IIF)发布的最新新兴市场增长追踪报告显示，今年新兴市场经济体的复苏势头在第二季度持续。

报告显示，4月整个新兴市场经过季节调整的季度环比GDP增长率年率比3月上升0.1个百分点，至3.4%，这让整个新兴市场的增长率比其12个月移动平均值高0.4个百分点。

如果该报告得到证实，那就表明新兴市场经济体继续从2015年第一季度的低点反弹——当时IIF的数据显示，新兴市场GDP实际总体年度增长率降至2.5%。

新兴市场正走在复苏的路上吗？当然有人支持新兴市场增长跟随大宗商品价格走势呈现周期性波动的观点。但IIF的分析师不这么认为。



IIF资本市场总监洪川(Hung Tran)表示，新兴市场确实处于反弹之中，但他怀疑这种反弹能否持续。

他说：“我们看到的是短期的周期性反弹，它是发达市场央行和中国人民银行(PBOC)促成的，但长期的结构性阻碍仍然存在，而且变得越来越强。”

洪川表示，整个新兴市场经济活动回暖受到大宗商品价格上涨的推动——在中国第一季度整体信贷增长40%的背景下，中国需求推动了大宗商品价格的上涨。

他说：“故事是一样的。债务积压只会越来越严重。中国人民银行和其他央行可以提供这样那样的短期支持，但如果没有解决结构性问题，它们将解决不了真正的挑战。未来道路崎岖并不意味着不会出现我们过去几个月看到的那种短期回暖。”

IIF的新兴市场增长追踪报告基于如下3类数据：企业调查、硬数据以及金融变量。



4月金融变量显示出最强的增长，这是受到石油和金属价格以及新兴市场股票和债券价格上涨的推动。

IIF表示，在硬数据当中，贸易是主要的增长源泉，受到阿根廷和印尼出口增长上升的推动。但新兴市场情况并不一致：在IIF观察的10个国家当中，只有阿根廷、印尼、巴西和泰国这4个国家在过去3个月的商品出口出现增长。

工业生产保持不变：中国出现增长，尽管幅度没有以前那么大，同时不包括中国在内的新兴市场工业生产继续放缓，幅度同样不如先前那么大。

4月企业调查数据下行，抹掉了3月一半的涨幅。

译者/邹策