【英语财经】日本首季度经济增速远超预期 Japan GDP growth rate jumps to 1.7%

Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, easily beating expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise, in a big boost to the country’s beleaguered policymakers.

Rising gross domestic product reverses a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 and means Japan has avoided another technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

The faster than expected pace of growth suggests the Japanese economy is managing to shake off the effects of a slowdown in China and a stronger yen — at least for now — with domestic demand having more momentum than previously thought.

Robust growth data are likely to mean a smaller fiscal stimulus by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which was poised to act if the data had been bad.

The data will give heart to the Bank of Japan — suggesting the economy is growing faster than its long-run trend of about 0.5 per cent — although it is unlikely to have much direct effect on monetary policy. The BoJ is still under pressure to ease because of the rising yen and the weakness of inflation.

Consumption contributed 1 percentage point to annualised growth, government consumption added 0.6 percentage points and trade chipped in 0.8 percentage points of growth. The stronger pace of consumption is particularly encouraging, suggesting higher wages are turning into spending at the shops.

Although the figures send a positive message about the economy, Japan’s initial GDP data are notoriously unreliable, and revisions often change the picture substantially.

今年第一季度，日本经济按年率计算增长了1.7%，远超增长0.3%的预期，将大大激励该国处于困境中的政策制定者。

这一增长逆转了去年第四季度的收缩，意味着日本避免了又一次技术性衰退。技术性衰退的定义是连续两个季度经济负增长。

经济增速快于预期表明，日本经济正成功摆脱中国经济放缓和日元升值的影响（至少目前如此），国内的需求势头比之前想象的要强。

强劲的增长数据很可能意味着，日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的政府不用再实施那么大的财政刺激。假如这次的数据糟糕，日本政府打算实施这种刺激。

这一数据对日本央行(Bank of Japan)是个鼓舞。它表明，日本经济正以快于长期趋势水平（即增速约0.5%）的速度增长，尽管这不太可能对货币政策产生多少直接影响。由于日元升值、通胀疲弱，日本央行仍面临放松银根的压力。

消费为年化增长贡献了1个百分点，政府消费贡献了0.6个百分点，贸易贡献了0.8个百分点。消费增速加快尤其鼓舞人心，它表明薪资上涨正转化为消费支出。

尽管这些数据传递出关于日本经济的积极信号，但日本GDP初值出了名的不可靠，对初值的修正往往会令图景发生巨大改变。

译者/梁艳裳