【英语财经】铁矿石跌至每吨60美元以下 Iron ore sinks below $60 as Chinese frenzy cools

Iron ore suffered another day of losses with the steelmaking commodity sinking below $60 a tonne as a speculative frenzy in China cooled following pressure from local exchanges and regulators.

Chinese iron ore futures experienced a surge in trading volumes last month as speculators piled into the market, looking for quick and easy ways to bet on a pick-up in construction activity and rising steel production.

The frenzied trading on domestic Chinese exchanges pushed prices higher and fed through into the physical market where iron ore was trading at almost $70 a tonne late last month — its highest level in more than a year and almost 50 per cent above its January lows.

However, volumes for iron ore steel, steel and coking coal are waning after Chinese exchanges have raised fees and margins and regulators have issued stern warnings about the dangers of speculative trading.

Turnover in the most active iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange (DCE) was 2.2m lots on Thursday, down from nearly 7m at the height of the trading frenzy two weeks ago. Trading in Chinese steel futures has also slowed and the price has declined.

On Thursday, iron ore for immediate delivery into China was down $1.50, or 2.5 per cent, to $59.50 a tonne, according to the Steel Index, taking losses over the past two weeks to almost 14 per cent.

Analysts say there are reasons to think iron ore will not revisit the $40 a tonne level hit in January when markets were gripped by fears of slowing growth in China.

They point out the trigger for the speculative interest in steel-related commodities was grounded in fundamentals — a credit surge engineered by Chinese policymakers earlier this year to prop up the economy and its currency.

This led to a pick-up in construction activity and stoked investor appetite for ways to bet on the Chinese economy.

“Both the physical trade and China’s speculators are responding to the year-to-date lift in credit liquidity in China’s economy,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Tom Price.

随着中国的交易所和监管机构施加压力，国内投机狂潮冷却，铁矿石这种炼钢用大宗商品又遭受一日下跌，跌至每吨60美元以下。

中国铁矿石期货上个月经历了交易量激增——投机者纷纷涌入市场，寻找快捷简单的方式押注建筑业活动和钢铁生产回暖。

中国国内交易所的疯狂交易推升铁矿石价格不断走高，并影响到现货市场，上个月末铁矿石交易价升至近每吨70美元，达到一年多以来最高水平，比1月的低点高出近50%。

但随着中国交易所上调手续费和最低保证金，监管机构也发出严厉警告提醒投机性交易的危险，铁矿石、钢材和焦煤的交易量正在走低。

周四，交易最活跃的铁矿石合同在大连商品交易所(DCE)的成交量为220万手，两周前交易最疯狂时期这个数字曾达到近700万手。中国钢材期货的交易也有所放缓，价格有所下降。

周四，据钢铁指数(TSI)数据，即期交付到中国的铁矿石下跌1.50美元至每吨59.50美元，跌幅2.5%，使过去两周跌幅达到近14%。

分析师表示，有理由相信铁矿石价格不会重回今年1月每吨40美元的水平——当时对中国经济增长放缓的担心左右了市场。



他们指出，对钢铁相关的大宗商品的投机兴趣源于基本面因素——今年早些时候中国政策制定者为支撑中国经济和人民币而导演的信贷激增。

此举使得建筑业活动回暖，并激起了投资者寻找途径押注中国经济的欲望。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师汤姆?普赖斯(Tom Price)表示：“实物贸易与中国的投机者都在对中国经济年初至今的信贷流动性提升做出反应。”

译者/何黎