【英语财经】分析：中国经济复苏基础并不牢固 China’s recovery: not solid

The foundation of the Chinese recovery, to borrow official government rhetoric, is not solid. Markets may be celebrating signs of life in the economy, but there are plenty of people questioning the quality of the recovery.

It is a debate reflected in the latest interrogations of the Chinese household sector by FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.

FTCR’s April consumer sentiment survey found a solid improvement in readings of current financial situations and discretionary spending habits, as the first chart shows.

Its read on household sentiment towards current economic conditions rose to its highest level since July last year, just before a mishandled renminbi devaluation crystallised global concerns about a full-on Chinese economic meltdown.

But consumer outlooks for the future were notably subdued in April: FTCR’s measure of where consumers see the economy going barely budged, while the index capturing how consumers see household incomes changing in the coming six months was flat compared with March.

A sense of unease is captured by the latest FTCR China Business Activity Index (see the second chart), which combines results from surveys of the real estate, export and logistics sectors.

The headline index in April fell back after hitting its highest level since October 2014 in March. The 52.2 reading was below the series average of 52.5, with the drop entirely the result of a slump in the real estate component.

FTCR’s China Real Estate Index fell from a record high of 72.9 to a still-impressive 60.1 in April. Interviews with real estate developers indicate that much of the drag has come from the fall in sales activity in first-tier cities, reflecting moves by local governments in Shanghai and Shenzhen to clamp down on speculative excess in their housing markets.

Some in the central government have long been concerned that resorting to the old stimulus playbook would repeat the unintended consequences of funds being used for speculative purposes rather than to support what Beijing considers the “real economy”.

Surging Shenzhen house prices, no-deposit mortgages and frothy trading in commodity markets in Shanghai, Dalian and Zhengzhou indicate this has been happening already, while signs of mounting inflationary pressure also justify cautious policymaking.

A pick-up in housing and infrastructure investment, supported by record levels of debt creation, will continue to help support the economy. FTCR expects further stabilisation in coming months. But the uncertainty reflected in April’s survey readings highlight the fragile nature of this latest credit-fuelled uptick in activity.

David Wilder is Principal, China, at FT Confidential Research.

借用中国政府的官方说法，中国经济复苏的基础并不牢固。市场可能正在庆祝经济恢复生机的迹象，但有很多人质疑复苏的质量。

英国《金融时报》旗下研究部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)对中国家庭进行的最新调查反映出了这一争论。

如第一张图所示，“投资参考”在4月进行的消费者信心调查发现，消费者对当前经济状况和非必需品支出习惯的看法显著改善。



根据该调查，中国家庭对当前经济状况的信心升至去年7月以来的最高水平。去年8月，一次处理不当的人民币贬值加剧了全球对中国经济彻底崩溃的担忧。

但4月份消费者对未来的展望则尤为低迷：“投资参考”有关消费者对经济走向看法的指数基本没有变化，而关于消费者对接下来6个月家庭收入变化看法的指数也与3月持平。

如第二张图所示，汇总对房地产、出口和物流行业调查结果的最新“投资参考”中国商业活动指数(FTCR China Business Activity Index)捕捉到了一种不安感。



在3月达到2014年10月以来的最高值后，整体指数在4月回落。52.2的读数低于该指数系列均值52.5，而该指数下跌完全是房地产分项指数大跌所致。

4月，“投资参考”中国房地产指数(FTCR China Real Estate Index)从创纪录的高点72.9跌至60.1，不过这个数字依然令人印象深刻。对房地产开发商的访谈结果表明，大部分拖累来自于一线城市房地产销售活动的下滑，这反映出上海和深圳市政府打击当地房市过度投机的举措。

中央政府的一些人长期以来一直担心，诉诸以前的刺激策略会重新导致不想要的后果——资金被用于投机性目的、而非支撑北京方面认为的“实体经济”。

深圳飙涨的房价、零首付抵押贷款，以及上海、大连和郑州大宗商品市场的交易泡沫表明，这种情况已经发生，而通胀压力上升的迹象也为谨慎的政策制定提供了正当理由。

在创纪录的举债水平的支持下，房市和基础设施投资的回升将继续支撑经济。“投资参考”预计未来数月经济将进一步稳定。但4月的调查结果反映出不确定性，凸显了最新一轮由信贷驱动的经济活动上扬本质上是脆弱的。

本文作者为英国《金融时报》旗下《投资参考》中国区主任

译者/徐行