【英语财经】铁矿石价格反弹恐难持续 Iron ore’s surprise rally looks on borrowed time

Caught between slowing Chinese demand and relentless production growth 2016 was supposed to be bring more pain for the iron ore industry, which has seen prices tumble since peaking at nearly $200 a tonne five years ago. So far things haven’t played out that way.

Instead of sinking to $30 a tonne as many analysts had predicted, the steelmaking commodity has surged in value. Boosted by rising Chinese steel prices and supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil, it has gained more than 50 per cent this year and hit a 15-month high of $68.70 a tonne on Thursday.

If sustained the rebound, which has made iron ore the top performing major commodity of 2016, could add billions of dollars to the bottom line of big producers such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tintoand Vale.

But their shareholders should not get too excited — few industry participants believe the recovery in the 1.4bn-tonne-a-year market will last, including the major producers.

Asked last week if the prices could remain above $60 a tonne, Mike Henry the head of BHP’s Australian operations says it was unlikely because more “low cost volume” was coming to the market.

“I think we’re going to see this [higher prices] for a few months, and then things will come back off again,” Mr Henry told the audience at the Melbourne Mining Club.

BHP’s apprehension is well founded. Vale, the Brazilian miner, is pushing ahead with its giant S11D, the industry’s biggest development project, and output from Roy Hill, a 55m-tonne-a-year Australian mine backed by South Korean steelmaker Posco, will ramp up later in the year.

But supply is not the only reason to think the rally might prove fleeting.

Aside from a weaker US dollar, which has boosted commodity prices across the board, the main driver behind iron ore’s fast and furious rally has been China, the world’s largest producer and consumer of steel.

Shanghai steel prices have surged by 70 per cent from their 2015 trough boosted by mills restocking ahead of the key summer construction period and a huge credit surge.

Alarmed by slowing economic growth and capital outflow Chinese policymakers injected a huge amount of cash into its banking system earlier this year, a move that boosted steel-intensive construction and infrastructure projects.

Analysts say this stimulus spending could support steel prices for the rest of the second quarter. Indeed, the latest China steel survey from Macquarie, the Australian investment bank, shows a continued strengthening in demand with order indices for construction and infrastructure at record levels.

“As long as inventory stays lows at mills and traders there seems very limited downside risk to steel prices,” says Macquarie.

But a pullback looks inevitable at some point because higher prices have thrown a lifeline to China’s bloated steel industry that may unable to resist bringing production back online.

“The rise in prices engenders the risk of a premature supply response, particularly in steel, aluminium and zinc where Chinese margins have improved materially,” says Jeffrey Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs.

That is also the view of the China Iron & Steel Association, which reckons the country’s steel production hit a record high of more than 70m tonnes in March.

In its latest monthly report, CISA says the big rise in steel prices had led to a “rapid reopening of capacity that had been shut and suspended”. It goes on to say a large rise in steel output would “not be good for the gap between market demand and supply.”

Predicting the direction of steel and iron ore prices, however, has been made more difficult by the explosive growth of the country’s commodity derivative markets.

Six of the top 10 futures contracts are now traded on Chinese exchanges, according to Citigroup. These include steel reinforcement bar (which is number 4) and iron ore (at number 5).

“Chinese futures markets should keep expanding over the next few years, with Beijing set on China playing a larger role in global price discovery,” says Citi in a recent report.

Such has been the pace of growth that China’s two main commodities exchanges — the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Dalian Futures Exchange — moved this week to curb activity by raising margins after volumes exploded. More rebar futures were traded on Thursday than China producers in an entire year.

Ultimately, the fundamentals of demand and supply will prevail, but until they do prices could remain in what some analysts are already calling “overshoot territory”.

“It is difficult to make a case for iron ore remaining above $60 a tonne,” says Tom Price analyst at Morgan Stanley, who sees prices eventually falling back to $45-$55 a tonne because of the on going expansion in seaborne supply.

For now though, mining investors should enjoy the tailwind from higher prices.

自5年前达到每吨近200美元的顶峰之后，铁矿石价格经历了暴跌。在中国需求逐渐放缓和产量持续不断增长的夹击下，铁矿石行业2016年本应迎来艰难的一年。但到目前为止，事情的走向却并非如此。

铁矿石价格并未像很多分析师预测的那样跌至每吨30美元，相反，这种用于炼钢的大宗商品的价值大幅上升。由于中国钢价上涨以及来自澳大利亚和巴西的供给出现扰动，铁矿石价格今年以来已经上涨了逾50%，并在上周四达到了每吨68.70美元，创下15个月以来的新高。

此轮反弹已使铁矿石成为2016年表现最为强劲的主要大宗商品，如果反弹持续下去，可能将必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和淡水河谷(Vale)等大生产商的利润提升数十亿美元。

但这些公司的股东不应过于兴奋——包括主要生产商在内，几乎没有行业内人士认为这个规模达到每年14亿吨的市场的复苏会持续下去。

上周，当被问及铁矿石价格能否保持在每吨60美元以上时，必和必拓澳大利亚矿产业务负责人迈克?亨利(Mike Henry)表示不太可能，因为更多的“低成本批次”将进入市场。

“我认为，这种（较高的价格）将保持几个月，然后行情会再度回落，”亨利在墨尔本矿业俱乐部(Melbourne Mining Club)对在场者说。

必和必拓的忧虑不无道理。巴西矿商淡水河谷正在推进行业内最大的开发项目S11D，而得到韩国钢铁制造商浦项制铁(Posco)支持、年产5500万吨的澳大利亚矿商Roy Hill将在今年晚些时候增产。

但供给并非认为此轮反弹可能短暂的唯一理由。

除了美元走弱使大宗商品价格全面提升以外，铁矿石迅猛的上涨行情背后的主要拉动因素是中国——世界最大的钢材生产国和消费国。

上海的钢价已经从2015年低谷飙涨70%，拉动因素是钢材加工厂在夏季施工旺季前补充库存，以及信贷大规模激增。

担心经济增长放缓和资本外逃的中国政策制定者今年早些时候向银行系统注入了大量现金，此举提振了大量使用钢铁的建筑和基础设施项目。

分析师表示，这些刺激性支出可能在第二季度余下的时间里支撑钢价。事实上，澳大利亚投行麦格理(Macquarie)最新的中国钢铁调查表明，需求持续加强，建筑和基础设施订单指数处于创纪录水平。

麦格理表示：“只要钢材厂和交易商的库存保持在低位，钢价的下行风险似乎极为有限。”

然而，钢价在某一时刻回落似乎不可避免，原因是钢价上涨给产能过剩的中国钢铁产业投下了一根救命的绳子，它可能无法抵御恢复产量的诱惑。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球大宗商品研究主管杰弗里?柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“价格上涨催生了供应方过早回应的风险，尤其是钢铁、铝和锌等中国的利润率出现实质性改善的板块。”

中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron & Steel Association)也持同样的看法，该协会估计3月份中国钢产量达到逾7000万吨的创纪录高水平。

在最新的月度报告中，中国钢铁工业协会表示，钢价的大幅上升导致“原本停产、限产的产能迅速恢复”。该报告接着说，钢铁产量大幅增长“不利于缓解市场供需矛盾”。

然而，中国大宗商品衍生品市场的爆炸式增长，加大了预测钢材和铁矿石价格走向的难度。

根据花旗集团(Citigroup)的说法，十大期货合同中的六大现在在中国的交易所交易。其中包括排名第四的螺纹钢期货和排名第五的铁矿石期货。

花旗在最近的一份报告中表示：“中国政府决心让中国在全球定价体系中发挥更大影响，今后几年中国期货市场应该会保持扩张态势。”

增长如此迅猛，以至于在成交量出现爆炸式增长之后，中国两大大宗商品交易所——上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)和大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)上周开始采取措施，通过上调保证金和交易手续费限制交易活动。上周四的螺纹钢期货交易量，超过了中国一整年的产量。

最终，供需基本面还是会占据优势。然而在那以前，价格都可能会停留在已被部分分析师称为“超调区间”的范围内。



摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师汤姆?普莱斯(Tom Price)表示：“很难找到铁矿石价格维持在每吨60美元以上的理由。”他认为，由于海运铁矿石供应量的扩大，铁矿石价格最终会回落至每吨45美元至55美元之间。

不过，采矿业投资者目前应该可以享受价格上升带来的有利局面。

译者/何黎