【英语财经】美联储对全球经济的担忧缓解 Fed concerns ease overstate of global economy

The Federal Reserve yesterday signalled that its concerns about global economic and financial hazards had eased since its meeting in March, leaving the door open to a second increase in interest rates later this year.

The central bank held rates at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent yesterday, as expected, noting a slowdown in US economic growth and more sluggish household spending.

The Federal Open Market Committee struck out a reference in its last statement to international risks to the US economy due to an improvement in financial market sentiment and lessened concerns over Chinese policy.

That suggested a short-term rates increase in the coming months, even if the timing remains uncertain.

However the Fed also suggested that it remained on guard for another adverse turn of events abroad. “The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” it said.

Having pushed through a landmark rise in short-term interest rates in December, Fed chair Janet Yellen has since spelt out a cautious approach to monetary policy amid concerns about Chinese growth and low US inflation expectations.

Uncertainty about the path of policy has been heightened by the UK referendum on its membership of the EU a week after the Fed’s June meeting; many investors argue a Fed move so soon to a potential market destabilising event would be hazardous.

The median expectation from Fed policymakers’ interest rate forecasts suggests the official rate will be lifted twice this year, with some analysts looking to June or July for the first of these moves and December for the second.

In yesterday’s statement the central bank once again declined to weigh how the hazards facing the US economy measure up against the chances of positive surprises, leaving the timing of the next interest-rate move unclear.

That marked the third rate-setting meeting in a row in which the Fed has omitted a statement on the balance of risks, clouding the outlook for monetary policy. Esther George, the Kansas City Fed chief, dissented in favour of a rate rise in April’s meeting, replicating her vote in the March gathering.

Complicating the Fed’s calculations are signs of a slowdown in the US economy. The New York Federal Reserve’s economic modelling points to gross domestic product growth of just 0.8 per cent in the first quarter, followed by expansion of 1.2 per cent in the second. Early indicators of activity in the second quarter have been sluggish, among them the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s business outlook survey, which fell into negative territory in April.

In its statement the Fed noted the weaker growth, but also pointed out that the labour market had continued to improve.

美联储(Federal Reserve)昨日表示，其对全球经济和金融风险的担忧自3月份政策会议以来有所缓解，这为今年晚些时候第二次加息的可能性作出铺垫。

这家美国央行昨日将利率维持在0.25%至0.5%的区间不变，符合市场预期。美联储指出，美国经济增长有所放缓，家庭支出更为低迷。

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)没有重申上一份声明提及的美国经济面临国际风险，原因在于金融市场情绪转好，对中国政策的担忧缓解。

这似乎表明短期利率将在未来几个月上调，即便具体时机仍不明朗。

然而，美联储也暗示，它仍然警惕海外局势可能出现又一个不利转折。“委员会将继续密切监测通胀指标以及全球经济和金融动向，”它表示。

自去年12月坚持启动具有里程碑意义的加息以来，在各方担忧中国经济增长和美国通胀预期偏低的大背景下，美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)对货币政策表达了谨慎观点。

美联储6月会议一周后，英国将举行要不要退欧的全民公投，这加剧了围绕政策路径的不确定性；许多投资者提出，美联储在距离一起潜在导致市场不稳定的事件这么近的时候动手将是危险的。

美联储政策制定者利率预测的中值似乎表明，官方利率今年将上调两次。一些分析师预期，第一次加息将在6月或7月，第二次加息将在12月。

在昨日的声明中，美联储再次拒绝评判美国经济面临的危险与出现正面惊喜的几率哪个大，这使下一次利率调整的时机仍不明朗。

这标志着美联储在连续第三次议息会议上没有就风险平衡表态，给货币政策的前景带来不确定因素。堪萨斯城联储(Kansas City Fed)主席埃丝特?乔治(Esther George)表达了异议，她在4月会议上赞成立即加息，重复了她在3月会议上的投票。

使美联储的考虑复杂化的是，美国经济出现了放缓迹象。纽约联储(New York Fed)的经济模型表明，今年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)仅增长0.8%，第二季度将增长1.2%。第二季度的先行活动指标比较低迷，其中费城联储(Philadelphia Fed)4月份的商业前景调查陷入负值区间。

美联储在其声明中指出，经济增长转弱，但也指出，劳动力市场继续改善。

译者/和风