【英语财经】汽车制造商在中国市场寻求领先 Carmakers seek inside edge in China

Carmakers are gearing up for a year of intense competition in China as the world’s largest auto market by sales faces both slowing growth and changing tastes in the form of electric cars and sports utility vehicles.

This time last year, global executives were bracing for a potential slowdown and a “new normal” of moderate sales growth to match a slowing mainland economy.

Fears became reality when the stock market rout last summer in China sent consumer sentiment into a nosedive. Sales dropped year on year from June to August, before a tax cut for small-engine vehicles in October propped up sales to finish 2015 with a growth rate of 4.7 per cent year-on-year.

After a bumpy run, global carmakers at the biennial Beijing International Automotive Exhibition, which opens on Monday, are keen to prove they are well positioned in China’s rapidly maturing market.

Shifting consumption patterns have made SUVs one of the country’s most promising growth segments, with sales surging by more than 50 per cent in the first quarter of 2016 compared with the same period last year, in contrast to sedan sales which declined 1 per cent.

That mirrors the growing popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs elsewhere in the world as fuel costs have followed the price of oil lower.

The shift has helped established a beachhead for local automakers, according to Bill Russo, a Shanghai-based consultant.

“For sedans, multinationals had the advantage but for utility vehicles seven out of the top 10 models are Chinese brands” thanks to their lower costs, he says. The trend is here to stay, he adds: “Utility is like a drug — once you have it, you’re hooked”.

The move has put pressure on foreign brands as local carmakers have also improved their quality significantly in recent years, according to analysts.

“Multinationals are in a dilemma over whether to cut costs to compete,” says Yale Zhang, a Shanghai-based consultant.

Domestic automakers are looking to expand on their newly privileged position. IHS Automotive predicts production of 50 new SUV models to be launched in China this year and says that 78 per cent of these will be domestic brands.

Global automakers are already revving up efforts to regain ground by bringing their most successful top-end models from home. Ford, for instance, will use the Beijing Expo to launch its F-150 Raptor in China, a popular pick-up truck in the US, as part of efforts to “inspire a generation of off-road enthusiasts,” says John Lawler, chief executive of Ford Motor China.

But bigger is not the only way carmakers hope to do better in the Chinese market: electric cars also remain a priority for any auto brand looking to get ahead.

While they are still only a small segment of the overall market, greater numbers of “new energy vehicles” are a strategic goal for Beijing even if the demand is not yet there.

The government is aiming for yearly sales to top 3m units by 2025, after growth of nearly 300 per cent in 2015 to 330,000.

Li Keqiang, China’s premier, said in February that the government would step up support for the electric vehicle industry by shifting funds away from subsidies for production to rewarding companies that come up with new technologies and hit sales targets.

“Everyone is under pressure to show their latest NEV [new energy vehicle] models” at the Beijing Expo, says Janet Lewis of Macquarie. But margins will remain low for electric vehicles for a few years to come, she adds. “Right now, selling NEVs is not a profitable proposition.”

A survey from McKinsey suggests that electric vehicles are gaining traction, helped by government policies that make it easier to get a licence plate for electric vehicles in China’s largest cities.

As in the SUV segment, foreign leaders still face local competition. LeEco, a Chinese tech company, became the latest to enter the space, last week [of Apr 18] announcing a new all-electric concept car christened LeSEE.

“These [technology] companies are almost on par with Silicon Valley,” says Clemens Wasner at EFS, a consultancy. “In a western country their entry into the market would not be economically viable, but in China it might be.”

汽车制造商正准备迎接中国市场激烈竞争的一年。世界最大的汽车市场目前面临着增长放缓和品味变化——转向电动汽车和运动型多功能车(SUV)。

去年这个时候，全球汽车业高管们正准备迎接中国经济即将放缓的局面，以及与此相应的汽车销量小幅增长的“新常态”。

去年夏天中国股市暴跌导致消费者信心一落千丈时，这样的担心成为了现实。6至8月期间销量同比下降。但10月份出台了针对小排量汽车的减税措施，提振了销量，使2015年全年销量增长4.7%。

经历这一波折后，在周一开幕的两年一度的北京国际汽车展览会(Beijing International Automotive Exhibition)上，全球汽车制造商急于证明自己在迅速走向成熟的中国市场处于有利地位。

变化的消费模式使SUV成为中国汽车市场最有前景的板块之一，2016年第一季度销量同比飙升逾50%，相比之下，轿车销量下降1%。

这与世界其他地方的趋势相符：由于燃料成本跟随油价走低，耗油的SUV车日益受欢迎。

据常驻上海的汽车行业顾问比尔?鲁索(Bill Russo)介绍，这种转变帮助本土汽车制造商建立了一座桥头堡。

他表示，“跨国公司在轿车方面具有优势，但对于多功能车，前10个车型中有7个是中国品牌，”这是得益于它们的成本较低。他补充说，“多功能车就像毒品——一旦你拥有了它，你就会上瘾”。因此这一趋势将会持续。

分析师们表示，这种局面给外国品牌带来了压力，因为本土汽车制造商在近几年显著提升了质量。

“跨国公司陷于要不要为了竞争而削减成本的两难境地，”常驻上海的顾问张豫(Yale Zhang)表示。

国内汽车制造商正寻求扩大自己新的有利地位。思迈汽车信息咨询公司(IHS Automotive)预计，今年中国将投产50款新的SUV车型，而且78%将是国产品牌。

全球汽车制造商已经加紧努力，从自己的本土市场引进最成功的高端车型，以求收复失地。例如福特(Ford)将借这次北京车展在中国市场发布F-150猛禽(Raptor)，这是一款在美国很受欢迎的皮卡。福特中国首席执行官罗力强(John Lawler)表示，此举是“激励一代越野爱好者”的努力的一部分。

但是，“更大”并不是汽车制造商希望在中国市场更上层楼的唯一途径：对于任何寻求领先的汽车品牌来说，电动汽车也是一个重点领域。

尽管它们仍只占整个市场的一小部分，但是提高“新能源汽车”的销量是北京方面的一个战略目标，即使大量需求尚未出现。

政府的目标是到2025年每年销量达到300万辆；2015年电动汽车销量增长近300%，达到33万辆。

中国总理李克强在2月份表示，政府将加大对电动汽车产业的支持，把资金从补贴生产转向奖励那些研发出新技术和达到销量目标的企业。

麦格理(Macquarie)的珍妮特?刘易斯(Janet Lewis)表示，“大家都有压力，都要（在北京车展）展示各自最新款的新能源车。”但她补充道，未来几年电动汽车的利润率将保持在较低水平。“眼下卖新能源车赚不了钱。”

麦肯锡(McKinsey)的一项调查似乎表明，在政府政策的帮助下，电动汽车正在打开市场。在中国大城市，电动汽车更易上牌。

与在SUV市场一样，外国领先企业在电动汽车领域也面临来自本土品牌的竞争。中国科技公司乐视(LeEco)成为最新一家挤入市场的竞争者，在4月18日宣布了全电动概念车LeSEE。

“这些（科技）公司几乎与硅谷不相上下，”咨询公司EFS的克莱门斯?瓦斯纳(Clemens Wasner)表示。“在西方国家它们进入市场在经济上不会可行，但在中国也许可行。”

译者/和风