【英语财经】中国钢铁需求推升铁矿石价格 Chinese steel demand pushes iron ore close to $60

Iron ore, the steelmaking ingredient, has rebounded to trade close to $60 a tonne as Chinese steel prices have rallied into the country’s peak construction season.

Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery to China was assessed at $59.90 a tonne on Monday, up $2.40, by the Steel index. Shares in BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two of the world’s biggest producers, rose in London.

A pick-up in construction and the property market in China, which normally occurs before the summer, has boosted expectations for steel demand, even as many mills struggle with excess capacity.

The most-traded steel futures rose 3.2 per cent on Monday on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Iron ore has climbed more than 40 per cent this year and is up 62 per cent from its December low.

China’s imports of iron ore rose 6.5 per cent last month, as steel mills restocked inventories. That led to a rally in Chinese iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which are the fifth-largest global commodity contract by daily trading volume, according to Citigroup.

Still analysts cautioned that the rebound in Chinese steel demand was unlikely to last, and that iron ore prices were still vulnerable to the overhang of supply and a weak global steel market. The warmer weather and higher steel prices could also lead to the restart of higher-cost Chinese iron ore mines.

China has increasingly relied on overseas supplies after iron ore prices fell from more than $140 a tonne in early 2014. About 86.7 per cent of the iron ore it needed had been imported in the first two months of the year, up from 84 per cent last year and 78.5 per cent in 2014, Wang Liqun of the China Iron and Steel Association said last week, according to the Caixin financial magazine.

An additional 100m to 120m tonnes of new low-cost iron ore supply is expected this year, according to analysts at Citi, even as global steel demand is expected to remain flat.

Global steel demand is contracting and is expected to fall 0.8 per cent this year to 1,488 tonnes, according to the World Steel Association, following a drop of 3 per cent last year.

“Weaker than expected Australian exports and more resilient Chinese steel production have kept prices elevated. However, both trends are likely to reverse in the medium and long term,” Citi said.

In China steel demand is likely to have peaked in 2013, with production supported by growth in exports since then, according to analysts at Haitong Securities.

随着中国钢铁价格回升到施工旺季，铁矿石（炼钢原料）交易价格反弹至每吨近60美元。

据钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)评估，对华即时交割的基准澳大利亚铁矿石周一上涨2.4美元，每吨至59.9美元。全球最大的两家铁矿石生产商必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)在伦敦市场的股票出现上涨。

中国建筑和房地产市场的重新好转（通常出现在夏季之前）已经带动了钢铁需求的预期，虽然许多钢厂依旧在努力应对产能过剩问题。

周一，上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)交易量最大的钢材期货上涨3.2%。今年铁矿石已攀升40%以上，比去年12月的低点上涨了62%。

受钢厂补充库存带动，中国的铁矿石进口较上月增长了6.5%。据花旗集团(Citigroup)的数据，这导致大连商品交易所(Dalian Commodity Exchange)的中国铁矿石期货出现反弹，中国铁矿石期货是以每日交易量计全球第五大期货商品。

但分析师警告中国钢铁需求的反弹不太可能持续，铁矿石价格仍然容易受到供应过剩、全球钢铁市场疲软的影响。天气转暖，钢铁价格走高，可能还会导致中国重启一些成本较高的铁矿。

自2014年初铁矿石从每吨140多美元的价格下跌以来，中国开始日益依赖海外供应。据财新(Caixin)报道，中国钢铁工业协会(China Iron and Steel Association)的王立群上周表示，今年前两个月，中国铁矿石对外依存度升高到了86.7%，2015年为84%，2014年为78.4%。

花旗(Citi)分析师表示，今年低成本铁矿石供应量将增加1亿吨到1.2亿吨，虽然全球钢铁需求预计将持平。

据世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association)的数据，继去年下跌3%之后，全球钢铁需求持续萎缩，预计今年将下跌0.8%至1488吨。

花旗表示：“澳大利亚出口弱于预期，加上中国钢铁产量弹性较大，令价格升高。但这两种趋势都可能在中长期内扭转。”

海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析师表示，中国钢铁需求很可能在2013年已达顶峰，此后支持生产的是出口增长。

译者/何黎