【英语财经】数据：全球经济复苏可能“停滞” Global economic recovery ‘in danger of stalling’

The world economy is beset by feeble growth and a recovery that is “weak, uneven and in danger of stalling yet again,” according to the latest Brookings Institution-Financial Times tracking index.

In a publication ahead of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this week, the index provides sober reading, highlighting sluggish capital investment, falling industrial production and declining business confidence.

The results of the index are likely to be reflected in IMF forecasts for the global economy on Tuesday, prompting Christine Lagarde, fund managing director, to warn of the need to be “alert”to global risks with growth “too low for too long”. The IMF is widely expected to revise its 3.4 per cent forecast for growth in 2016 down again.

According to Professor Eswar Prasad, an economist at Brookings, the worst fears of a financial and economic crisis in January and February “might be over but after yet another year of tepid growth in 2015, the world economy in 2016 faces the unsettling prospect of more of the same”.

While the IMF has become more pessimistic about the outlook in recent weeks, the Brookings-FT Tiger index — Tracking Indicesfor the Global Economic Recovery — suggests there has been some stabilisation of current conditions after a big decline in growth rates in the second half of last year.

布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)/英国《金融时报》全球经济复苏追踪指标(Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery, TIGER)显示，全球经济增长乏力，复苏“疲弱、不均衡且可能再次停滞”。

该指数发布之际，国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)本周即将召开春季年会。该指数提供了冷静的读数，突显出资本投资乏力、工业产量滑坡以及企业信心下滑。

该指数的结果可能会反映在IMF周二对全球经济的预测上，这促使IMF总裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)警告称，有必要“警惕”经济增长“长期过于缓慢”的全球风险。人们普遍预期IMF将再次下调其3.4%的2016年增长预测。

布鲁金斯学会经济学家埃斯瓦尔?普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)表示，今年1月和2月对金融和经济危机的最严重担忧“可能已经退却，但在2015年经历了又一个增长乏力的年头之后，2016年全球经济将面临同样令人不安的前景。”

最近几周，IMF对全球经济前景更为悲观，但TIGER指数表明，在去年下半年经济增速大幅下滑后，当前经济状况出现了一些企稳迹象。

译者/梁艳裳