【英语财经】“退欧将永久损害英国经济” British government says EU exit would deal ￡36bn blow to its public finances

A British exit from the EU would cause “permanent damage” to the UK economy, cutting output by 6.2 per cent and blowing a ￡36bn hole in the public finances, finance minister George Osborne claimed yesterday.

In the most significant day so far of the campaign for the June 23 referendum on EU membership, Mr Osborne sought to destroy the economic arguments for Brexit in a 200-page Treasury analysis of the impact of a Leave vote.

With some polls showing the Remain and Leave camps running neck-and-neck, David Cameron’s government hopes to shift votes with a relentless focus on the alleged threat to growth and jobs of a British withdrawal.

Mr Cameron is expected to receive further support for his campaign on Friday when Barack Obama arrives in London; the US president is expected to back Britain staying in the EU.

The Treasury paper claimed that an exit would lead to falling trade and would put a ￡36bn annual dent in the public finances, equivalent to 8p on the basic rate of income tax.

Pro-Leave campaigners have accused the chancellor of scaremongering. But Mr Osborne insisted the Treasury’s analysis of the costs and benefits of EU membership was “serious and sober and conclusive”.

In the central scenario of a bilateral trade deal with the EU, similar to that negotiated with Canada, the economy would be 6.2 per cent smaller after 15 years than if Britain stayed in the EU, equating to ￡4,300 per household.

In a scenario where Britain falls back on its membership of the World Trade Organisation, the hit would be more severe with the economy up to 9.5 per cent smaller and households as much as ￡6,600 poorer, the Treasury calculated.

The idea of Britain negotiating a deal for full access to the European single market while not being an EU member was “complete fantasy”, Mr Osborne said. But Eurosceptics pointed out that if the economic consequences of a Brexit were so disastrous, it was odd that the prime minister should have put the choice to the British public

Michael Gove, a pro-Brexit minister, will say today the Remain campaign “treats people like mere children, capable of being frightened into obedience”.

英国财政大臣乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne，见上图)昨日宣称，英国退出欧盟(EU)将给英国经济带来“永久损害”，使经济产出缩水6.2%，给公共财政带来360亿英镑的缺口。

在为6月23日就决定是否留在欧盟的全民公投所进行的宣传活动中，奥斯本在迄今最重大的一天试图用财政部一份分析英国退欧投票结果影响的200页报告粉碎退欧的经济论据。

鉴于一些民调结果显示留欧阵营和退欧阵营势均力敌，戴维?卡梅伦(David Cameron)领导的政府希望通过紧紧聚焦于其声称的英国退欧对增长和工作机会的威胁来拉票。

卡梅伦的宣传努力有望在巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)周五抵达伦敦后获得进一步的支持；预计美国总统将支持英国留在欧盟。

英国财政部的文件宣称，英国退欧将导致贸易额下降，将使公共财政收入每年减少360亿英镑，相当于所得税的基本税率需要上调8个百分点。

退欧阵营人士指责财相危言耸听。但奥斯本坚称，财政部对欧盟成员国身份的代价和收益分析是“严肃、冷静和确凿的”。

按照文件预测的核心情景，若英国和欧盟达成类似欧盟和加拿大谈判的双边贸易协定，15年后英国经济规模将比留欧情况下缩小6.2%，相当于每个家庭损失4300英镑。

根据英国财政部的计算，若英国只能依靠其世界贸易组织(WTO)成员国身份，其受到的冲击将更为严重，经济规模的缩水幅度将高达9.5%，每个家庭将蒙受高达6600英镑的损失。

奥斯本表示，英国能够在不作为欧盟成员国的情况下谈判获得欧洲单一市场完全准入的想法是“彻头彻尾的幻想”。但欧洲怀疑论者指出，如果英国退欧真的会带来如此灾难性的后果，首相把这个选择权交给英国公众岂不是很奇怪吗？

支持英国退欧的大臣迈克尔?戈夫(Michael Gove)今天将会说，留欧运动“把人民当做会因为害怕而服从的孩子”。

译者/石斛