【英语财经】新兴市场回归正增长区间 Emerging markets lead the global rebound

Emerging markets are back in positive territory after a sour start to the year, as investors bet that central banks will support the global economy for an extended period.

The MSCI Emerging Markets index, dominated by stocks in China, South Korea and Taiwan, is up 4.6 cent this year. Demand for government bonds issued by developing economies has pushed up prices and pulled the yield on JPMorgan’s dollar-denominated index down to a six-month low of 5.89 per cent.

“There is some confidence that global growth is not going into a black hole,” said James Barrineau, co-head of emerging market debt at Schroders.

The recent rally in emerging markets represents a sharp turnround from the first month of the year, when China’s economic slowdown, falling oil prices and a rise in US interest rates in December drove investors to remove money from emerging markets at a record pace.

The Federal Reserve’s markedly cautious view of the global economy last week has cemented expectations there will not be an aggressive schedule of interest rate rises in the US this year.

“One of the most important drivers is the Fed’s dovishness,’’ said Mr Barrineau. ‘’That has stopped the rally in the US dollar and been beneficial to EM currencies.”

Some of the countries regarded as being most exposed to rising US rates are Brazil and South Africa, which rely on international capital to service budget deficits. In January, both the Brazilian real and South African rand touched multiyear lows against the US dollar while the average cost of borrowing across emerging markets reached a five-year high of 6.78 per cent.

In credit markets, investors say talk is now about how long the calm in emerging markets can last. Policy officials in the US refuse to rule out more than two rate rises this year, Brazil remains tangled in a corruption scandal, Russia is still subject to western sanctions and Turkey has endured a string of terrorist attacks, meaning many of investors’ concerns remain a threat.

Bhanu Baweja, emerging market strategist at UBS, says changes in global risk appetite seem to be occurring more frequently, so that rallies can quickly become downturns.

“The improvement in risk appetite since its worst point in January has been rapid,” he cautions. “?.?.?.?upward momentum is nearing an advanced stage, in our view cautioning against chasing EM assets aggressively.”

Around $9tn in capital flowed into emerging markets between 2005 and 2015, fuelled in part by central bank-enabled easy money, raising concerns that developing countries could face a credit crisis once the US tightened monetary policy.

As the US economy has showed signs of improvement and the Fed made plans to raise rates for the first time since the financial crisis, emerging market currencies endured one of their worst years on record in 2015, falling 15 per cent against the US dollar, according to JPMorgan’s index.

在今年的糟糕开局之后，新兴市场如今已回归正增长区间——投资者们赌央行对全球经济的支持将持续更长时间。

今年迄今，以中国大陆、韩国和台湾的股票为主的MSCI明晟新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets index)上涨了4.6%。新兴经济体发行的政府债券受到热捧，推高了价格，把摩根大通(JPMorgan)以美元计价的新兴市场政府债券指数的收益率拉低至5.89%的6个月低点。

“市场在一定程度上相信，全球增长将不会陷入黑洞，”施罗德(Schroders)新兴市场债券业务联合主管詹姆斯?巴里诺(James Barrineau)表示。

相比今年1月的走势，新兴市场近期的反弹是一个显著逆转。今年1月，中国经济放缓、油价下跌以及美国去年12月的加息，导致投资者从新兴市场撤资的速度创下纪录。

美联储(Fed)不久前对全球经济给出了非常谨慎的看法，巩固了今年美国将不会像原计划那样积极加息的预期。

“最重要的推动因素之一就是美联储的鸽派立场，”巴里诺表示，“这阻止了美元上涨，令新兴市场货币受益。”

在新兴市场中，巴西和南非等国家被认为对美国加息的曝险程度最高。这两个国家依靠国际资金弥补预算赤字。1月份，巴西雷亚尔(Real)和南非兰特(Rand)兑美元的汇率都触及了多年来低点，而新兴市场的平均借贷成本达到6.78%的5年高点。

在信贷市场，投资者表示，目前的话题是新兴市场上的平静能持续多长时间。美国政策官员拒绝排除今年加息两次以上的可能性，巴西仍陷于腐败丑闻之中，俄罗斯仍在遭受西方的制裁，土耳其遭受了一连串的恐怖袭击，这意味着投资者担心的许多问题仍构成威胁。

瑞银(UBS)新兴市场策略师巴努?巴韦贾(Bhanu Baweja)表示，全球风险偏好的变化似乎发生得更加频繁，因此走势可能很快由反弹变成下跌。

“自1月份的最低点以来，风险偏好的改善来得很快，”他警告称，“……上涨势头正在接近最后阶段，在我们看来，这意味着不应积极追逐新兴市场的资产。”

从2005年至2015年，部分在央行释放宽松货币的推动下，大约9万亿美元的资金流入了新兴市场。这引发一个担忧：一旦美国收紧货币政策，发展中国家可能面临一场信贷危机。

就在美国经济出现改善迹象以及美联储计划进行金融危机以来的首次加息之际，新兴市场货币在2015年经历了有记录以来最差的年份之一。摩根大通的指数数据显示，2015年新兴市场货币兑美元的汇率下跌了15%。

译者/邢嵬