【英语财经】中国欲收购更多境外铜矿确保铜供应 China wants to buy more copper mines to secure its supply

China will continue to acquire overseas copper mining assets to secure supply despite the uncertain outlook for commodity prices and scarcity of large projects, the vice-president of the country’s largest metal trader has said.

“China is very short of copper resources,” Jerry Jiao, vice-president of China Minmetals, told the World Copper Conference in Santiago. “The only way to make stable supply of copper resources?.?.?.?going overseas is the only solution.”

The world’s largest mining companies are looking to shed assets as they seek to cut their debt loads and move away from a large diversified business model focused on multiple commodities. Swiss mining company Glencore is looking to sell its Lomas Bayas copper mine in Chile, while reports have also suggested that US copper miner Freeport-McMoRan may be willing to sell a stake in its El Abra mine in the South American country.

Minmetals is the owner of the big Las Bambas mine in Peru, which started shipping copper this year. It agreed to sell copper concentrate from the mine to a local unit of China’s state-owned Citic group, it said in January.

“We all know there are not many Las Bambas out there, it’s not easy to develop a huge mine,” Mr Jaio said. “It is more and more difficult to get one tonne of copper produced.”

Last December China’s state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said that Minmetals, which was founded in 1950, would merge with Metallurgical Corp of China, an infrastructure and construction group. That will allow the combined entity to control the whole metals value chain from mining to construction.

Last year Minmetals copper production rose to a record high of 217,000 tonnes, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

But Minmetals could face severe competition for copper assets from miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, who both have positive views on copper. There are also billions of assets in private equity that could bid for any projects.

Even miners with stretched balance sheets are not selling their best copper assets as the metal is expected to be in short supply by the end of the decade.

China has built out its smelting capacity over the past ten years as it has grown to consume about 40 per cent of the world’s copper. But it is still reliant on overseas mines for the raw copper material.

China’s copper consumption is akin to a “reverse pyramid,” Mr Jiao said. It consumes about 11m tonnes, and produces about 7m tonnes of copper cathode. But it can only supply 1.7m tonnes from its domestic mining.

“It’s easy for China to build a smelter but not to find resources,” he said. “Going forward [the] concentrate or mining sector will still occupy a large percentage of value along the whole value chain.”

Mr Jiao said that emerging industries in China, such as automotive and renewable energy, are increasing their intensity of copper use. But the price outlook for the metal depends on whether China can successfully transition its economy towards these new industries and away from the old industrial sectors.

“If we believe China has made a stable adjustment then we will feel at ease that copper will face a stable and balanced situation,” he said.

However, Goldman Sachs, which has been one of the most bearish banks on copper and other commodities, warned that if China’s transition to a more consumer-led economy is successful, then copper demand growth is likely to be between flat to about 3 per cent.

“At best, if China manages its bumpy deceleration, which includes a big reduction in investment share of GDP over the next three to five years, the copper market will turn,” Goldman analyst Max Layton told the conference.

“If they perfectly manage this transaction then copper markets should turn. All the other scenarios that I come up with are worse than that for copper.”

中国最大金属交易商中国五矿集团公司(China Minmetals)副总裁焦健(Jerry Jiao)表示，尽管大宗商品价格前景充满不确定性、大型铜矿项目稀缺，中国仍将继续收购境外铜矿资产以确保铜的供应。

在圣地亚哥召开的世界铜业大会(World Copper Conference)上，焦健表示：“中国极度缺乏铜资源。确保铜资源供应稳定只有一个办法……赶赴境外就是这唯一的解决方案。”

目前，全球最大矿企正试图减轻债务负担，摆脱关注多种大宗商品的极为多元化的商业模式。出于这个原因，这些矿企正在寻求剥离资产。瑞士矿企商嘉能可(Glencore)正在寻求出售位于智利的洛马斯?巴亚斯(Lomas Bayas)铜矿。与此同时，还有报道暗示，美国铜矿企业麦克墨伦自由港铜金公司(Freeport-McMoRan)或有意出售位于智利的艾尔?阿布拉(El Abra)铜矿部分股份。

五矿集团是秘鲁拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)大型铜矿的东家，该矿已于今年投产。该集团曾在今年1月表示，同意将产自该矿的铜精矿销售给中国国企中信集团(Citic)在国内的一家分部。

焦健表示：“我们都知道，像拉斯邦巴斯这样的铜矿并不多，开发巨型铜矿并不容易。生产每一吨铜矿的难度越来越大。”

去年12月，中国国有资产监督管理委员会(State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission)曾表示，创立于1950年的五矿集团或与基建和建筑集团中冶集团(Metallurgical Corp of China)合并。此举将令合并后的实体得以控制从采矿到建筑在内的整个金属价值链条。

根据中国官方新华社(Xinhua)的报道，五矿集团的铜产量曾在去年跃升至21.7万吨的创纪录高点。

不过，五矿集团可能会面临来自必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等矿商对铜资产的激烈争夺。后两者都对铜产业持正面看法。此外，私募股权领域还有数以十亿计的资产，可能会对任何铜矿类项目发起竞购。

由于在这个十年底结束时，铜预计会处于供应短缺状态，即使是资产负债表十分紧张的矿商，也不愿出售旗下最好的铜资产。

中国在过去十年里积累了巨大的冶炼产能，同期内中国也已成长为消耗量约占全球40%的国家。不过，中国仍需依赖境外铜矿，才能满足对粗铜材料的需求。

焦健表示，中国的铜消耗状况类似于“倒金字塔”。中国的铜消耗量约为1100万吨，电解铜产量约为700万吨。然而，中国国内采掘的铜供应量却只有170万吨。

他说：“对中国来说，修建精炼厂十分容易，找到铜资源却不容易。向铜精矿或采矿业部门前进一步，仍会在整个价值链条中占据很大比例的价值。”

焦健表示，在中国，汽车和可再生能源等新兴产业正在提高铜的使用率。然而，铜价前景要看中国能否成功让经济摆脱旧的工业部门，转向这类新兴产业。

他说：“如果我们相信中国已实现平稳调整，我们放心地认为，铜产业将面临一个稳定而平衡的局面。”

不过，作为对铜和其他大宗商品最不看好的银行之一，高盛(Goldman Sachs)曾警告称，在中国向消费主导型经济的转型取得成功的前提下，铜需求增长的可能区间，也只会在持平到大约3%的增速之间。

高盛分析师马克斯?莱顿(Max Layton)在大会上表示：“在最好的情况下，假如中国磕磕绊绊的降速过程不出差错——包括在今后三到五年内大幅降低投资与国内生产总值(GDP)之比，铜市场将会转向。

“倘若他们完美实现了这一转型，铜市场应该会扭转。对铜产业来说，我能想到的其他所有情形都比这糟糕。”

译者/简易