【英语财经】欧美投行今年首季交易业务大幅下滑56% Global banks warned of deeper gloom as trading revenues plunge

Global investment banks suffered declines of as much as 56 per cent in their trading businesses in the first three months of the year, analysts believe, stoking fears of further lay-offs for staff and lower dividends for shareholders.

Europe’s shrinking investment banks bore the full brunt of the difficult environment for the buying and selling of assets such as bonds, stocks and commodities on behalf of clients. It was highlighted by Credit Suisse’s admission last week that its trading revenue had fallen 40-45 per cent this year.

Not only are many European banks reorganising and trying to sell assets into a falling market but they also have less exposure to the US market, which has fared better than Europe and Asia.

But Wall Street’s biggest banks are suffering too, with analysts predicting first-quarter falls in trading revenue of up to 48 per cent for Goldman Sachs and 56 per cent for Morgan Stanley as slowing Chinese growth, stubbornly low oil prices and fading hopes of a US interest rate rise weigh heavily on client activity and market performance.

The difficult first quarter shows the challenges faced by investment banks as they try to create sustainable profitability now that post-crisis reforms have limited opportunities and raised costs.

Jon Peace, banks analyst at Nomura, said the trading slump would have practical implications for European banks who still need to build capital to satisfy new regulations. “Weaker trading profits will delay the return of normalised cash dividends for the weaker banks and limit the absolute dividend payouts for the stronger banks,” he said.

Huw van Steenis, London-based banks analyst at Morgan Stanley, said it could take more than three years for investment banks to “structurally remove cost and capital” to deal with the new market realities.

Banks have already begun pruning. Credit Suisse has announced 2,000 extra job cuts in its markets division after a brutal first quarter and Morgan Stanley said late last year it would cull 1,200 jobs in fixed income and back- office functions.

In Europe, seven analysts polled by the Financial Times predicted that the top four investment banks — Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, UBS and -Barclays — suffered an average collapse of about 25 per cent in trading revenues for the first quarter of the year.

Kinner Lakhani, analyst at Deutsche, said European banks had been hit by a “perfect storm” of concerns about China, energy and global growth. “The cost of exiting non-core positions is also likely to have gone up sustainably as buyers demand a higher liquidity premium,” he said.

On Wall Street, the five leading banks — Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Bank of America — are expected to see trading revenues fall an average of almost 25 per cent when they report first-quarter results next month, according to six analysts polled.

分析师们认为，全球投资银行在今年头三个月遭受高达56%的交易业务下跌，引发人们对于员工面临进一步裁员、股东面临股息下调的担心。

交易业务（代表客户买入和卖出债券、股票和大宗商品等资产）的艰难局面，让欧洲不断缩水的投行遭受沉重打击。突显这一局面的消息是，瑞信(Credit Suisse)上周承认，今年以来其交易收入下降40%-45%。

许多欧洲的银行不仅在进行重组，试图在一个不断下跌的市场出售资产，而且它们对表现好于欧洲和亚洲的美国市场的敞口较小。

但是，华尔街各大银行的日子也不好过。分析师们预计，高盛(Goldman Sachs)第一季度的交易收入将下降最多48%，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首季交易收入将下降最多56%，原因是中国经济增长放缓、油价持续处于低位以及美国加息前景日益渺茫，都严重拖累了客户活跃度和市场表现。

第一季度的困难使各投资银行面对的挑战表露无遗：在金融危机过后的改革既限制机遇又推高成本的情况下，它们试图打造可持续的盈利能力。



野村证券(Nomura)银行业分析师乔恩?皮斯(Jon Peace)表示，交易业务低迷将对欧洲那些仍需要充实资本以满足新规的银行产生实际影响。“更为疲弱的交易利润将使那些较弱银行推迟现金股息回归正常化，并限制那些较强银行的股息绝对值，”他说。

摩根士丹利驻伦敦的银行业分析师休?范斯蒂尼斯(Huw van Steenis)表示，各家投行可能需要三年以上才能“从结构上移除成本和资本”，以应对新的市场现实。

各银行已开始裁减人员。瑞信在经历惨淡的第一季度后，已宣布在其市场部门追加裁员2000人，而摩根士丹利在去年末就表示，将在固定收益和后台职能部门裁减1200个岗位。

在欧洲，接受英国《金融时报》调查的7位分析师预测，四大银行——瑞信、德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)、瑞银(UBS)以及巴克莱(Barclays)——今年第一季度平均遭受了约25%的交易收入下滑。

德银分析师金纳?拉克哈尼(Kinner Lakhani)表示，人们对于中国、能源以及全球经济增长的多重担忧凑在一起，对欧洲各银行造成了重创。“随着买家要求更高的流动性溢价，退出非核心头寸的成本也可能已经持久性上涨了，”他说。

接受调查的6位分析师预测，华尔街五大主要银行——高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗集团(Citigroup)和美国银行(Bank of America)——下月公布第一季度业绩时，预计将报告交易收入平均下降近25%。

译者/和风