【英语财经】中美花生市场冰火两重天 Chinese shell out for peanuts while US prices toil

Stark disparities have appeared between two important peanut markets as the Chinese shell out more for the groundnut amid a scramble for supplies, while record US inventories fuel fears that farmers may not have enough warehouse space to store the snack.

The divergence comes as regional price differences have widened because of the weather, state subsidies that change farmer behaviour and quarantine rules that affect trade flows.

Peanut prices from China “have gone up dangerously”, says Paul van Velzen, managing director of Aldebaran Commodities, a Rotterdam-based nut and oilseeds trader.

Prices in China, a leading peanut exporter, have stayed high after a fall in production in the crop year 2014-15 — the result of a drop in planting because of lower prices and bad weather.

About half of the country’s peanuts are crushed into oil used for cooking. It is prized for its nutty flavour and the ability to be heated to high temperatures without burning. Chinese consumers are also turning to nuts as a healthy snack, and producers have had limited ability to keep pace with the growing demand.

Although Chinese production is expected to hit 16.8m tonnes in the 2016-17 crop year, up from 16.5m in 2014-15, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the large oilseed processing sector in China has continued to provide avid buyers, leading to sharp price increases.

For example, peanut oil in Shandong, an important growing region, is trading at about Rmb14,400 ($2,222) a tonne, up 8 per cent from a year ago and the highest since February 2014.

The export prices for peanuts have also continued to rise over the past few months. “The prices keep on going up,” says Mr van Velzen.

In the US, farmers are seeing an overhang of inventories thanks to two bumper harvests in 2014 and 2015.

“We had a phenomenal year in 2015,” says Don Koehler, executive director of the Georgia Peanut Commission, which produces almost half of the US’s peanuts. US production in 2015 totalled 2.8m tonnes, up almost a fifth from the year before.

Mr Koehler says that US farmers were planting more peanuts as cotton and corn prices were low. Cotton was down mainly because of the large stock overhang in China caused by the country’s state stockpiling system.

Peanut farmers also benefit from the US government’s subsidy programme for grains and oilseeds, which supplements the farmers’ revenue if the national price or crop revenue drops below guaranteed levels.

A loan programme also protects peanut growers by providing interim financing for farmers and further insulating them from price declines as the government takes ownership of the loan collateral of peanuts if prices drop below an agreed rate.

Farmers in the south of the US usually alternate between cotton, corn and peanuts, but with cotton lacking a government support programme, “the recent and forecasted extremely low cotton prices coupled with the other commodities’ low prices has forced southern farmers to look towards peanuts as the safety net”, says a report on peanut supply and storage from the US’s National Center for Peanut Competitiveness.

Average US prices are 19 cents a pound, down 14 per cent from a year ago and 40 per cent from the start of 2013, according to the USDA.

If US peanut prices remain weak, it is possible the cost to the taxpayer will be more than $800m a year in 2016, 2017 and 2018, according to a Congressional research paper.

With peanut inventories forecast to rise to a record 1.3m tonnes this year, there is a chance that US farmers will run out of warehouse space. “Without adequate storage capacity, many peanut producers may not be able to store their peanuts in a federal license warehouse” and participate in the government’s loan programme, the NCPC warns.

“We’re telling our members that when they buy the seed, they have got to have guaranteed storage,” says Mr Koehler. In an ideal world, the US would be increasing its exports, which account for about 20 per cent of its overall production. However, certain importers, including Europe, have stringent quarantine rules on aflatoxins — toxic chemicals caused by mould — limiting the amount of imports from the US.

Differing consumer tastes and preferences also restrict the US varieties

sold overseas.

China turned to the US in 2012 after its regular supplier, India, faced a poor harvest because of drought. Although Beijing imposes a 15 per cent import duty and 13 per cent VAT on peanut imports, US peanut growers have pinned their hopes on Chinese demand.

US peanut industry delegates have visited China to promote their wares. “China has been buying peanuts from us,” says Mr Koehler, adding: “There is a lot of activity right now to build relationships with Chinese buyers.”

世界两个重要花生市场行情迥异。中国人花更大价钱抢购，而美国花生库存创纪录，让人担心农场主或许没有足够的仓储空间存放花生。

之所以产生这种差异，是因为天气状况、政府补贴（直接影响农户行为）以及检疫规则（影响贸易流动）等因素导致中美地区价差扩大。

中国花生价格“涨势危险，”位于鹿特丹的坚果和油籽贸易商Aldebaran Commodities的董事总经理保罗?范维尔岑(Paul van Velzen)表示。

在2014至2015作物年度，由于此前花生价格较低，农户减少了花生种植面积，再加上天气恶劣，中国花生产量出现了下滑。自那以后，中国花生价格一直保持在高位。中国是世界主要花生出口国之一。

在中国，大约二分之一的花生会被榨制成烹饪用油。花生油发出果仁香味，在高温加热时不会燃烧，因而受到消费者喜欢。中国消费者也把坚果作为一种健康零食。但生产商的产能有限，无法满足不断扩大的需求。

根据美国农业部(USDA)数据，中国花生产量预计将从2014至2015作物年度的1650万吨增加至2016至2017作物年度的1680万吨。尽管如此，中国庞大的油籽加工行业不断地向热切的买家供货，导致价格大幅攀升。

例如，在中国花生种植大省山东，目前花生油的价格约为每吨1.44万元人民币（约合2222美元），比一年前上涨8%，为2014年2月以来的最高价。

过去几个月，花生出口价格也持续上涨。“价格一直在上涨，”范维尔岑说。

而在美国，由于2014年和2015年连续大丰收，农场主们正面临库存过剩的局面。

“2015年是非同寻常的一年，”美国佐治亚州花生委员会(Georgia Peanut Commission)的常务理事唐?凯勒(Don Koehler)说。该委员会成员的花生产量几乎占到全美国的一半。2015年，美国花生产量达280万吨，同比增加近20%。

凯勒说，由于棉花和玉米价格较低，美国农场主种植了更多花生。棉花价格低，主要原因是中国的国家收储制度导致中国棉花库存非常高。

美国政府对谷物和油籽实施补贴的政策也让种植花生的农场主获益。如果国内价格或作物收入低于保证水平，政府补贴就能弥补农场主的收入。

有一个贷款项目也保护了花生种植者，它为农场主提供过渡融资，并进一步使农场主不受价格下跌的影响——如果价格跌到约定水平之下，政府会把作为贷款抵押品的花生收为己有。

美国南部的农场主通常在棉花、玉米和花生之间轮换种植，但由于政府未推出支持棉花种植的项目，“近期及预期的棉花价格都极低，加上其他大宗商品价格处于低位，迫使南方农场主把花生作为保障收益的作物，”美国全国花生竞争力中心(National Center for Peanut Competitiveness)的一份关于花生供给与存储的报告指出。

美国农业部表示，美国花生平均价格为每磅19美分，较一年前下跌了14%，较2013年初下跌了40%。

根据一份国会研究报告，如果美国花生价格依旧疲软，可能造成纳税人在2016年至2018年期间每年损失超过8亿美元。

由于今年花生库存预计将上升至创纪录的130万吨，美国农场主可能会用完仓库空间。全美花生竞争力中心警告称，“没有足够的储存容量，很多花生种植者可能无法在联邦许可仓库存放花生”，也无法参加政府的贷款项目。

“我们正在告诉会员，他们购买种子时，必须有可以保障的储存空间，”凯勒称。如果是在一个理想的世界，美国就会增加对外出口（出口约占美国花生总产量的20%）。然而，包括欧洲在内，某些进口国在黄曲霉素（由霉菌导致的有毒化学物质）方面有着严格的检疫规定，限制了对从美国进口的花生总量。

消费者口味和喜好的差异也限制了美国销往海外的花生品种。

2012年，在长期供应国印度因干旱而面临歉收之后，中国转向美国进口花生。尽管北京方面对进口花生征收15%的进口税以及13%的增值税，但是美国花生种植者仍然把希望寄托在中国需求上。

美国花生行业代表前往中国推销他们的产品。“中国一直从我们这里购买花生，”凯勒称，并补充道，“目前正进行着很多活动，目的是与中国买家建立关系。”

译者/何黎