【英语财经】IMF警告：“世界经济脱轨风险”正在加剧 IMF calls for global action to lift demand as China exports fall

The world faces a growing “risk of economic derailment” and needs immediate action to boost demand, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday as new figures pointed to the worst monthly collapse in Chinese exports since 2009.

Speaking in Washington, David Lipton, the IMF’s influential second-in-command, warned that the global economy was “clearly at a delicate juncture”. Urgent action was needed by policymakers around the world to respond to slowing growth and fresh threats posed by turmoil in commodity and financial markets, he added.

“Now is the time to decisively support economic activity and put the global economy on a sounder footing,” he told the National Association for Business Economics.

Among the “most disconcerting” signs of trouble in the world economy were “a sharp retrenchment in global capital and trade flows” in the past year, he said.

Those concerns were highlighted by the weak trade figures out of China yesterday. They showed both imports and exports falling in February as China’s demand for commodities such as crude oil, iron ore and copper fell and weaker global demand dragged on exports of manufactured goods.

In dollar terms China’s exports fell 25.4 per cent in February from a year earlier, the worst one-month decline since early 2009 and down from an 11.2 per cent drop in January. Imports fell 13.8 per cent, trimming losses after an 18.8 per cent fall in January.

The IMF is growing increasingly concerned about the state of the global economy because of what it sees as signs of a further slowdown. It has said it is likely to lower its 3.4 per cent growth forecast for this year when it issues its next round of predictions in April.

It is not alone. The OECD yesterday said that leading indicators pointed to easing growth in the UK, US, Canada, Germany and Japan.

China’s economy has also shown signs of slowing further this year after growing at its slowest pace in a quarter century in 2015. At the opening of an annual parliament meeting last Saturday, Premier Li Keqiang recommitted to a target of 6.5 per cent average growth over the next five years, a goal that many economists believe is unrealistic.

However, some observers have begun to push back against the gloomy prognostications for this year.

Economists at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics, led by former Bank of England policymaker Adam Posen and the IMF’s previous chief economist Olivier Blanchard, argued yesterday for a “reality check”.

“The probability of another 2008 [financial crisis] is inconceivable,” Mr Blanchard said.

But in his speech Mr Lipton argued that the global economy was at a point where a new downturn risked become a self-fulfilling reality if the world failed to act to boost demand.

Of particular concern, he said, was the perception in financial markets “that policymakers in many economies have run out of ammunition or lost the resolve to deploy it”.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日警告称，世界面临不断加剧的“经济脱轨风险”，需要立即采取行动以刺激需求。同时最新数据显示，中国出口遭遇自2009年以来最糟糕的月度下滑。

IMF有影响力的二号人物戴维?利普顿(David Lipton)在华盛顿发表讲话时警告，全球经济“显然正处于一个微妙时刻”。他说，世界各地的政策制定者需要采取紧急行动，针对不断放缓的经济增长、以及大宗商品和金融市场动荡带来的新威胁作出回应。

“现在是坚定支持经济活动，把全球经济置于更稳健基础上的时候，”他对全美商业经济协会(National Association for Business Economics)表示。

他表示，世界经济中“最令人不安”的问题迹象之一是，过去一年“全球资本及贸易流动骤减”。

中国昨日发布的疲弱贸易数据突显了那些担忧。数据显示，2月份进出口双双下降，中国对原油、铁矿石和铜等大宗商品需求下降，同时全球需求疲弱拖累了中国的制成品出口。

以美元计算，中国2月份出口同比下降25.4%，这是自2009年初以来的最糟糕单月跌幅，较1月份11.2%的跌幅扩大。进口下降13.8%，比1月份18.8%的跌幅有所缩窄。

IMF越来越担心全球经济状况，因为该组织看到了进一步放缓的种种迹象。它已表示，4月份发布下一轮预测时，很可能调降今年增长预测，目前的估计值是3.4%。

担忧情绪并不仅限于IMF。经合组织(OECD)昨日表示，各项先行指标显示，英国、美国、加拿大、德国和日本的经济增长都将放缓。

中国经济也已显示出今年将进一步放缓的迹象，去年中国经济增速为四分之一个世纪以来最慢。在上周六的全国人大年会开幕式上，中国总理李克强重申了未来五年保持6.5%年均增速的目标，许多经济学家认为这一目标是不现实的。

然而，一些观察家已开始反驳针对今年的悲观预测。

在华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)，以英国央行前政策制定者亚当?波森(Adam Posen)和IMF前首席经济学家奥利维尔?布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)为首的经济学家，昨日主张进行一次“现实检验”。

“再来一场2008年（那种金融危机）是不可想象的，”布兰查德表示。

但利普顿在讲话中提出，全球经济当前所处的情况意味着：如果世界不能采取行动刺激需求，一场新的低迷有可能成为自我实现的现实。

他表示，特别值得关注的是，金融市场抱着这样一种看法，即认为“许多经济体的政策制定者已耗尽弹药，或者失去了动用强大火力的决心”。

译者/和风