【英语财经】高盛：大宗商品价格反弹难持续 Rally in prices is unlikely to last, says Goldman Sachs

The most influential bank in commodity markets believes the recent rally is unlikely to last and prices will reverse unless there is a sustained improvement in demand led by China, the world’s biggest consumer of raw materials, writes Neil Hume.

In a series of reports published yesterday, Goldman Sachs said the 20-month commodity rout had further to run and prices needed to stay lower for longer to rebalance markets that are still groaning under the weight of plentiful supplies.

“Demand hasn’t really changed, [so] it takes lower prices to push and keep supply below demand to create a deficit,” said Jeffrey Currie, Goldman’s head of commodities research.

Goldman has been consistently negative on commodity prices during the past 18-months, with Mr Currie forecasting that oil prices could fall to $20 a barrel. Brent, the international benchmark, hit $27 a barrel in January, down from the $100 it averaged between 2010 and 2014.

Mr Currie said the recent bounce, which took oil prices back to $40 on Monday, would ultimately prove “self defeating” because it threw a lifeline to the cash-strapped producers that were in a desperate battle for survival.

“It would reverse the supply curtailments that are expected to rebalance the markets in the second half of 2016,” he said.

US oil production has started to decline in the face of lower prices, though companies may keep output going if the price recovers further, probably damping the extent of any rally.

On iron ore, which posted its biggest one-day gain on record on Monday, with a jump of 20 per cent, Mr Currie said the surge was the result of a short-term rise in Chinese steel prices. Mills that have shut down during the rout may need to restart temporarily ahead of the peak construction season.

大宗商品市场最具影响力的银行认为，近期的价格反弹不太可能持续，价格将再次下跌——除非全球最大原材料消费国中国的需求持续增强。

在昨日发布的一系列报告中，高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，延续20个月之久的大宗商品价格暴跌还将持续，较低的价格需要保持更长时间，才能让仍受到大量供应重压的市场再平衡。

高盛大宗商品研究主管杰弗里?柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“需求并未出现真正变化，（因此）需要更低的价格来推动并保持供应低于需求，以制造短缺。”

过去18个月，高盛一直不看好大宗商品价格，柯里曾预测油价可能跌至每桶20美元。今年1月，国际基准布伦特(Brent)原油价格跌至每桶27美元，远低于2010年至2014年间每桶100美元的平均价格。

柯里表示，近期的反弹——周一油价回升至每桶40美元——最终将被证明“自我拆台”，因为这给那些资金短缺、苟延残喘的生产商抛了根救生索。

他说：“这将扭转供应缩减的局面，市场本来有望在2016年下半年恢复平衡。”

由于油价走低，美国石油产量开始下滑。不过如果价格进一步恢复，这些企业可能会维持产量，从而抑制油价反弹的程度。

周一铁矿石价格出现有记录以来最大单日涨幅，跃升20%。柯里表示，这一飙升是中国钢铁价格短期上涨的结果。部分钢厂曾在价格低迷期间关门，现在可能需要在施工旺季前暂时重新投产。

译者/何黎