【英语财经】穆迪宣布将退出俄罗斯市场 Moody’s to withdraw from Russian domestic market

Moody’s is withdrawing from the Russian domestic market as global rating agencies are caught in a dilemma between new Russian laws and western sanctions.

Moody’s said on Wednesday that it would withdraw domestic credit ratings in Russia following “legislative changes and other potential restrictions” that affect the business of providing national scale ratings by its joint venture in the country, Moody’s Interfax Rating Agency.

Once ratings are withdrawn, the MIRA joint venture will close.

The decision from Moody’s marks the most drastic reaction so far to new Russian regulation of credit rating agencies, but highlights the risk that the country’s financial markets may become more isolated from global markets amid the tit-for-tat fallout of western sanctions against Moscow.

National-scale ratings assess the creditworthiness of issuers and financial obligations within a country. Under legal amendments approved last year that take effect in 2017, Moscow will allow agencies to issue local ratings only through a subsidiary in the country that agrees to certain conditions, including a guarantee not to withdraw ratings under external political pressure.

The legislation also requires central bank approval of the assignment and withdrawal of local ratings.

The new rules could leave global rating agencies in violation of either western law or Russian law if applied to Russian issuers under US or EU sanctions.

Moody’s is the only one of the big three global rating agencies with a joint venture in Russia. Fitch said late last month that it was considering a withdrawal of local ratings because of the new regulations. The agency issues national-scale ratings for Russian companies through a branch office, but that option will no longer be possible under the new rules. Standard & Poor’s said it was still considering its options.

“The large three rating agencies in light of this regulatory change are all going in the same direction,” a person familiar with the matter said. “That gives you an indication of the smaller nature of the business.”

A spokesperson for Fitch said that she expected the changes to have “little impact on our business in Russia” and that the rating agency continued to have “constructive dialogue with the Bank of Russia”.

The big three agencies are expected to continue to rate Russian groups on their global scales, limiting immediate fallout from the move. About 150 ratings will be affected by Moody’s decision, although a “large majority” of those companies hold credit opinions on its international rating system.

The global scale allows investors to compare the creditworthiness of issuers that operate in different jurisdictions. However, that analysis can cluster issuer ratings. National, or local ratings, have in turn been used to add further clarity.

Foreign rating agencies had long lobbied against the changes, but in vain. Following the adoption of the legal amendments, Russia launched Analytical Credit Rating Agency, its own agency, in an attempt to counterbalance ratings provided by western agencies which have downgraded Russian credit. The Russian agency started operating in November.

Last month, Russia announced that it was planning its first international bond sale since war in Ukraine in 2014 resulted in sanctions from western economies, as Moscow seeks fresh sources of budget funding amid a second year of recession.

Separately, Moody’s put three dozen Russian and Kazakh financial institutions on review for downgrade on Wednesday, including Sberbank, Alfa-Bank and the Bank of Moscow, as the drop in oil prices reduce the creditworthiness of bank clients.

The action was in part triggered by the agency’s decision to review Russia’s junk government bond rating for downgrade last week.

穆迪(Moody’s)即将撤出俄罗斯国内市场。目前，全球性评级机构被卡在俄罗斯新法律和西方制裁之间，左右为难。

周三，穆迪表示，在俄罗斯做出“法律改变和其他限制”之后，其将撤出俄罗斯市场的国内评级业务。这些改变和限制，会影响到穆迪驻俄罗斯的合资企业Moody’s Interfax Rating Agency(MIRA)提供全国性评级的业务。

一旦撤销评级业务，合资企业MIRA将会被关闭。

穆迪的决定，是迄今信用评级机构中对俄罗斯新法规做出的最激烈反应，但这凸显了一种风险：在西方对俄罗斯实行制裁后，俄罗斯采取了针锋相对的举动，这或许会导致该国金融市场更加孤立于全球市场。

全国性评级，会评估发行人在一个国家内部的信誉度和债务。根据去年通过、将于2017年生效的法律修正案，俄罗斯将仅仅允许评级机构通过设在该国的子公司发布国内评级报告，前提是必须满足一定的条件，包括保证不迫于外部政治压力而撤销评级报告。

这部俄罗斯法律还规定，需由央行来批准当地评级报告的分配或撤销。

如果针对受到美国或欧盟制裁的俄罗斯发行方实施新法规，那么全球评级机构将不是违反西方法律，就是违反俄罗斯法律。

译者/何黎