【英语财经】中国经济再平衡悖论 China’s rebalancing paradox hits home

China appears to be resorting to its stimulus playbook once again. Bank loans are at a record high, monetary policy has shifted to a “slight easing bias”, reserve requirement ratios have been cut, eight government ministries have pledged to support the industrial sector and downpayment ratios and taxes have been reduced in the real estate sector.

It all appears to be aimed at halting the downward slide in industrial activity: industrial output growth last year fell to its lowest since 1990.

A recent pledge by government ministries to support industry extolled the sector as “the backbone of the real economy” and “the main battlefield for stabilising the economy”. Infrastructure and real estate — two key drivers of demand for industrial goods — were the biggest beneficiaries of January’s lending boom, which has reportedly continued into February, according to banking sources of FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.

Such moves to support industry should not come as a surprise. China has no option but to resuscitate its industrial sector, as FTCR argued last year.

Why? Because China’s industrial-led slowdown is also leading to slower growth in consumer spending and service sector activity.

These were supposed to be sources of stability that would cushion the economy from the industrial downturn and prevent a hard landing.

But growth in value-added output in consumer-focused service industries — the wholesale, retail, hotel and catering sectors — slowed to its lowest on record in 2015. It increased only 6.5 per cent last year, down 4.1 percentage points from 2014 and 1.9pp below the previous nadir.

While headline growth in the tertiary sector accelerated in 2015, this was entirely due to the outsized contribution of financial services, as the country’s equity markets surged. Without this artificial boost, tertiary sector growth was the lowest on record.

Activity in the service sector is moderating because consumers are reining in spending in the face of a weaker economy. Consumer sentiment is at a record low, according to a UnionPay survey, based on bank card transactions.

Consumers’ future income expectations turned negative at the end of 2015 for the first time since the People’s Bank of China survey of 20,000 bank depositors started in 2001.

The rebalancing paradox

It is clear that the current industrial slowdown is hindering, not hastening, China’s transition to a more consumer and service-led economy.

Continued weakness in the industrial sector therefore runs the real risk of a system-wide loss of momentum in the economy, as both old and new growth drivers flounder.

This highlights the difficulty policymakers face. In order to rebalance the economy, Beijing first needs to stabilise it. But it can only do this by boosting the industries of old, something that will actually set back the rebalancing process.

In other words, to start moving forward with rebalancing, China first needs to take a big step back. This means that imbalances in the Chinese economy are likely to get worse before they can get better.

But that’s not all. Beijing also faces the difficult task of striking the correct balance between pulling on these old levers of growth to stabilise the economy, while avoiding a crisis along the economic faultlines that stem from this traditional model of growth. Debt is the biggest of these.

Chinese officials are probably right to assert that they have the necessary tools to stabilise the economy in the short term. But whether these can be deployed without pushing the economy’s imbalances to crisis point is far less certain.

Rafael Halpin is head of research at FT Confidential Research.

中国似乎又在采取其刺激战术。银行贷款处于历史高位，货币政策转向“略偏宽松”，存款准备金率下调，8部委承诺支持工业部门，同时房地产业的首付比例和税负被下调。

上述所有举措似乎旨在遏制工业活动的放缓趋势：去年工业产值增长降至1990年以来的最低水平。

各部委最近承诺支持工业活动，并将工业誉为“实体经济的支柱”和“稳定经济的主战场”。根据《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)的银行业消息来源，基础设施和房地产（工业产品需求的两个关键驱动因素）是今年1月放贷热潮的最大受益者，同时有报道称银行在2月仍然大举放贷。



人们不应对此类支持工业的举措感到意外。正如“投资参考”去年所说的那样，中国别无选择，只能重振其工业部门。

原因何在？因为中国以工业主导的经济放缓也导致消费支出和服务业活动增长放缓。

这些举措有望让中国经济企稳，免受工业低迷的影响，并防止经济硬着陆。

但面向消费者的服务行业（批发、零售、酒店和餐饮业）增加值在2015年的增幅放缓至有记录以来的最低水平。去年仅增长6.5%，较2014年下降4.1个百分点，比之前的最低增速还低1.9个百分点。



尽管2015年第三产业总体增长有所加快，但这完全归因于随着中国股市飙升，金融服务业做出的超大贡献。如果没有这种人为推动，第三产业增长则是有记录以来最低的。

服务业活动放缓，因为消费者在经济低迷的情况下节制支出。中国银联(UnionPay)一项基于银行卡交易的调查显示，消费者情绪处于历史最低水平。



自2001年中国人民银行(PBOC)对2万名银行储户展开调查以来，消费者未来收入预期在2015年末首次跌入负值区间。

再平衡悖论

当前的工业放缓显然阻碍、而非加快中国转向更大程度上由消费和服务拉动的经济增长模式。

随着新旧增长引擎失灵，工业持续疲弱可能因此导致整个经济体系丧失动力。

这突显出政策制定者面临的困难。为了再平衡经济，北京方面首先需要稳定经济。但它只有通过提振旧工业才能做到这一点，这实际上会阻碍再平衡过程。



换言之，要推进再平衡，中国首先要先退一大步。这意味着中国经济失衡可能先加剧然后才能改善。

但这还不是全部。北京还面临保持正确平衡的艰巨任务，一方面运用这些旧的增长杠杆来稳定经济，另一方面还要避免传统增长模式导致的经济薄弱环节爆发危机。债务是其中最大的问题。

中国官员宣称，他们具备必要的工具，可以在短期内稳定经济，他们可能是正确的。但不能确定的是，中国能否在不会加剧经济失衡以致引爆危机的情况下运用这些工具。

本文作者是英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”研究总监

译者/邹策