【英语财经】“亚太企业将迎来偿债高峰” S&P warns of Asia’s corporate repayment risk

Asia-Pacific companies are on the hook to repay almost $1tn of debt over the next four years — more than half of it priced in US dollars — according to Standard & Poor’s.

The rating agency’s report also highlights the rise in repayments due from riskier, junk-rated companies.

The figures come as Before the report investors were already worrying that the dollar’s strength and slowing economic growth globally would make it tougher for borrowers to coverroll over debts as they came due, particularly companies in emerging markets.

And higher US interest rates increase the cost of refinancing existing loans.

The report covers the $961.4bn of debt coming due that is rated by S&P. More than two-fifths of it must be repaid in the next two years.

Increasingly difficult conditions have followed a multiyear credit binge, during which the region’s borrowers took advantage of record-low interest rates and global investors’ search for higher-yielding assets.

Bond issuance by Asia’s emerging market companies halved last year. Slightly more than 80 per cent of outstanding bonds from EM borrowers are denominated in dollars, while a further 6 per cent are in euros.

“With the global collapse in commodity prices, slowing growth and falling equities in China, and the appreciation of the US dollar, companies in the Asia-Pacific region could find credit conditions to be less favourable for refunding debt in the coming years,” said S&P analysts in the authors of the report.

By contrast just 58 per cent of borrowing by developed-market groups that are based in Australia, New Zealand and Japan is denominated in US dollars or euros.

“While there is exchange rate risk, investment-grade issuers, particularly in the developed markets such as Australia, tend to largely or even fully hedge their positions,” S&P said.

The biggest danger surrounds riskier junk-rated groups, for which repayments are scheduled to rise sharply.

More than 20 per cent of non-financial institution debt is rated below investment grade, compared with just 4 per cent of the debt of banks and other financial institutions.

Some $8.6bn of repayments of junk bonds fall due in 2016, and that almost doubles next year — before doubling again to $30.9bn by 2019.

标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)称，未来四年期间亚太企业将需要偿还近1万亿美元债务，其中逾半是以美元计价的债务。

这家评级机构的报告还突显了风险较高的垃圾级公司的应偿金额上升。

这份报告出炉之前，投资者已经在担忧美元强势和全球经济增长放缓将使借款人（尤其是新兴市场的企业）更难滚转到期债务。

较高的美国利率提高了对现有贷款进行再融资的成本。

该报告涵盖了即将到期的、由标普评级的9614亿美元债务，其中五分之二以上必须在未来两年内还清。

在当前日益艰难的条件之前，亚太地区经历了持续多年的信贷狂潮，其间该地区借款人受益于创纪录的低利率和全球投资者对高收益率资产的追逐。

亚洲新兴市场公司的债券发行量去年减半。新兴市场借款人的未偿还债券中，略高于80%以美元计价，还有6%以欧元计价。

“随着大宗商品价格出现全球性崩溃，中国经济增长放缓和股市下跌，以及美元升值，亚太地区的企业可能发现未来几年的信贷条件不那么有利于债务再融资，”撰写报告的标普分析师们表示。

相比之下，在总部位于澳大利亚、新西兰和日本的发达市场企业的借款中，只有58%以美元或欧元计价。

“虽然有汇率风险，但投资级发行人（尤其是在澳大利亚等发达市场）往往在很大程度上甚至完全对冲自己的敞口，”标准普尔表示。

最大危险围绕着高风险的垃圾级企业，对它们而言，还款金额势必大幅增加。

非金融机构的债务有20%以上被评为投资级以下，而银行和其他金融机构的这一比例只有4%。

约有86亿美元的垃圾债券将在2016年到期，需要偿还，这一金额明年将几乎翻倍，而2019年将再次翻倍，达到309亿美元。

译者/和风