【英语财经】服务业兴起对新兴市场不利？ Switch to services bodes ill for emerging world

In 2014, for the first time since records began and almost certainly for the first time in human history, services, rather than goods, accounted for the bulk of the growth in global trade.

According to data from Unctad, the UN’s trade and development body, ephemeral services such as tourism, entertainment and business services were responsible for 62 per cent of the rise in exports in 2014, and physical goods for just 38 per cent.

The mix was the exact mirror image of 2013, when services’ share of growth was just 38 per cent and manufacturing, 62 per cent. The comparison with the five years to 2011, when services drove just 15 per cent of trade growth, as the first chart shows, is more striking still.

While we should be careful of drawing too many conclusions from a single data point, there are logical reasons for thinking the rise of services and the decline in goods trade, in relative terms at least, is here to stay.

When even an executive from Ikea, the Swedish furniture retailer, can say “in the west we have probably hit ‘peak stuff’” as Steve Howard, the company’s sustainability chief, did last month, we should probably listen.

“We have gone through a period in the west of very significant increase in consumption … in terms of carbon or livestock or cars and wider consumer goods we are approaching the peak,” said Mr Howard.

The data point to the trend being close to global, even if developed countries are further along it than emerging ones.

Figures from the Institute of International Finance, an industry body, show that services have steadily increased as a share of the economy in developed countries but also in Latin America, emerging Europe and China since 1990, as the second chart shows, even if the trend appears to have stalled in Asia-Pacific ex-China and largely evaded Africa and the Middle East.

More timely data suggest that, globally, the fortunes of services companies and manufacturers have diverged sharply since the start of 2014. The global purchasing managers' index, a measure of business confidence, is now markedly higher for the former sector than the latter, as the third chart shows.

This level of divergence between the fortunes of manufacturers and services sector companies is unprecedented, during this century at least.

Stephen Jen, founder of SLJ Capital Partners, a hedge fund manager, says that between 2000 and 2012 the correlation between the US manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity indices, compiled by the Institute for Supply Management, was typically between 0.8 and 1.

However, since 2014, this relationship has “broken down”, with the correlation between the two ISM indices now negative, as the fourth chart shows.

The poor showing of the manufacturing index looks even odder given the slump in the prices of energy and other commodities since 2014, which should benefit manufacturers, as it did in previous cycles.

“We are witnessing an important and consequential bifurcation between the relatively strong services sector and the relatively weak industrial sector in both China and the US,” says Mr Jen, who identifies a similar trend in the world’s second-largest economy.

Charles Collyns, chief economist of the IIF, believes there are an array of factors behind this trend, “all of which are likely to be enduring”.

Firstly, “rising global affluence” implies that the proportion of consumer spending directed towards necessities such as basic food and household goods will fall, and the percentage spent on “luxury items involving skilled personal services like meals out, entertainment and leisure travel” will rise.

Secondly, ageing populations reinforce this by directing more spending towards healthcare.

Thirdly, Mr Collyns argues there is an ongoing shift in the cutting edge of technological change away from hardware and towards software, most obviously in the IT sector but also in the likes of cars and robots.

Fourthly, while the gains from the globalisation of manufacturing over the past 25 years, such as the embedding of low-cost labour from poorer countries “may be reaching a limit”, this trend may just be starting for services, Mr Collyns argues.

“Services, traditionally seen as largely non-tradable, are increasingly supplied across borders, reflecting the rapid decline in international communications costs and an increasingly global entertainment market,” he says.

Assuming the shift towards services is a long-term trend, it has at least a couple of ramifications.

Firstly, given that services are, for the time being at least, still less likely to be traded cross-border than manufactured goods, it suggests that fears over the weakness of global trade may be overdone. Sluggish growth in trade need not necessarily imply weak global economic growth.

More specifically, indicators such as the Baltic Dry index, which measures the cost of shipping raw materials, and which has fallen to its lowest level since inception in 1985, are less useful as a gauge of broad economic health than ever before.

Second, and perhaps more importantly, such a shift would be bad news for emerging markets.

This issue is twofold. Firstly, a partial switch from spending on goods to consuming services plays into the hands of the developed world. Data from Unctad show that in 2014, services accounted for 21.2 per cent of the exports of developed world countries, but just 14.8 per cent of those of emerging nations.

The dematerialisation of consumption is also bad news for suppliers of commodities, disproportionately found in the emerging world.

Secondly, given that, for the time being at least, services are still less likely to be traded cross-border than goods, this implies that a greater share of the spoils of consumer spending in the rich world will stay in the rich world, rather than percolating down to poorer countries.

Mr Collyns believes this lies behind a “delinking” between the health of developed and developing countries, with the former currently growing at above their trend rate, and the latter below their trend.

“In past cycles, rising growth in advanced economies typically boosted demand for manufactured products and commodities in emerging economies, implying a synchronised global business cycle,” he says.

“However, this trade channel is losing power as a substantial share of demand in the advanced economies, both in consumption and investment, has been directed to the services sector.”

Others agree. Neil Shearing, chief emerging market economist at Capital Economics, says a shift towards services presents a “structural issue” for developing nations.

“It’s an interesting and important debate. Emerging markets need something tradable, some kind of high productivity activity. In the past that has been manufacturing.

“Can you get rich from trading services, are they high value added, high productivity?” he asks.

Mr Shearing does point to some examples of EMs successfully embracing export-led services, such as India’s IT outsourcers and Poland’s nascent strength in back office accounting, human resources and legal services.

However, he adds: “I think there are reasons to think you can get rich from services, but it’s much harder and it’s less scalable [than manufacturing]. It’s a counsel of despair to say the old path to prosperity has gone. I don’t think it has but it is more challenging. You need stronger human capital.”

Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, believes this problem may be relatively minor at present but could get a lot worse in the years to come.

“It’s bad for emerging markets. It lends itself to the view that EMs are going to get screwed by the evolution of the advanced countries,” he says. “Maybe it’s not so much a snapshot of today but the trend that may become more important in five to 10 years’ time.”

2014年，服务对全球贸易增长的贡献率超过了商品，这是有记录以来第一次，也几乎可以肯定是人类历史上第一次。

根据联合国贸易和发展会议(Unctad)的数据，旅游、娱乐和商业服务等短时服务对2014年全球出口增长的贡献率为62%，而实物商品的贡献率仅为38%。

这一局面与2013年恰好相反（那一年服务业对出口增长的贡献率为38%，而制造业的贡献率为62%），与截至2011年的那5年对比更加鲜明。如第一张图表所示，2011年服务业的贡献率仅为15%。

尽管我们应当小心别从一组数据中推导出太多结论，但我们有合乎逻辑的理由认为，服务业贸易兴起、商品贸易衰落（至少两者相对而言）的局面将持续存在。

瑞典家具零售商宜家(Ikea)的首席可持续发展官史蒂夫?霍华德(Steve Howard)上月说，“在西方，人们很可能已经达到了‘物品峰值’”。当一名宜家高管都能够说出这种话的时候，这话我们很可能应当听进去。

“在西方，我们已经走过了一个消费显著增加的阶段……无论是就二氧化碳、牲畜、汽车，还是更广泛的消费品而言，我们都在接近峰值，”霍华德说。

数据显示这一趋势几乎是全球性的，尽管它在发达国家比在新兴国家体现得更明显。



行业组织国际金融协会(IIF)的数据显示，自1990年以来，不仅是发达国家，拉美国家、欧洲新兴国家和中国的服务业增加值占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例也一直在稳步上升（如第二张图表所示）——尽管这种趋势在除中国以外的亚太地区停滞不前，并基本上没有出现在非洲和中东。

较近的数据显示，在全球范围内，服务业公司和制造商的命运自2014年初以来便发生了显著分化。如第三张图表所示，如今，服务业的全球采购经理人指数（PMI，该指数衡量商业信心）显著高于制造业。

这种制造业和服务业公司之间命运的分化程度，至少是本世纪以来未曾有过的。



对冲基金公司SLJ Capital Partners的创始人任永力(Stephen Jen)表示，2000年至2012年，由供应管理学会(Institute for Supply Management)编制的美国制造业采购经理人指数与非制造业采购经理人指数的相关系数通常在0.8至1之间。

然而，如第四张图表所示，自2014年开始，这种关系已经“瓦解”，目前这两个指数的相关系数已变为负值。



考虑到自2014年以来能源价格和其他大宗商品价格都出现暴跌，制造业采购经理人指数的糟糕表现就显得更蹊跷了——大宗商品价格下降本应对制造商有益，就像在以往的经济周期中那样。

“我们看到，中国和美国都出现了一个重要的分化趋势，服务业发展相对强势，而工业行业则发展相对疲软，”任永力说。他在中国这个世界第二大经济体发现了类似的趋势。

国际金融协会首席经济学家查尔斯?科林斯(Charles Collyns)认为，导致这一趋势出现的因素有很多，“这些因素全都可能会持续存在”。

第一，“全球日益富足”意味着，基本食品和家用物品等必需品的消费支出占比将会下降，“餐饮、娱乐和休闲旅行等涉及专业个人服务的奢侈项目”支出占比将上升。

第二，人口老龄化导致医疗支出增多，进一步强化这一趋势。

第三，科林斯认为，技术变革的前沿在不断由硬件向软件转移，这一点在信息技术(IT)领域体现得最为明显，但在汽车和机器人等领域也有所体现。

第四，科林斯认为，尽管过去25年里制造业全球化（比如把贫穷国家的低成本劳动力纳入全球体系）带来的好处“或许快要达到极限了”，但服务业的全球化或许才刚刚开始。

“传统观点认为服务基本上是不可贸易的，而如今跨境提供的服务越来越多，这反映出跨国通讯成本快速下降、娱乐市场日益全球化，”他说。

假设全球经济重心转向服务业是一种长远趋势，这种转变至少有两种后果。



首先，考虑到服务进行跨境贸易的可能性至少就目前而言还低于制成品，这表明人们对全球贸易疲弱的担忧或许过头了。贸易增长缓慢未必意味着全球经济增长疲弱。

更具体而言，波罗的海干散货运价指数 (Baltic Dry Index)等指标衡量整体经济健康状况的准确度比以往任何时候都小。波罗的海干散货运价指数衡量原材料海运成本，目前已跌至自1985年有记录以来的最低水平。

第二，或许也是更重要的一点，这种转变对新兴市场来说是坏消息。

这个问题分为两部分。首先，从消费商品向消费服务的部分转变正中发达国家下怀。联合国贸易和发展会议的数据表明，2014年服务在发达国家出口中占21.2%，而在新兴国家出口中只占14.8%。

消费的非实物化对大宗商品供应国而言也是坏消息，而大宗商品供应国集中在新兴世界。

其次，考虑到服务跨境贸易的可能性至少就目前而言还低于商品，这意味着富国消费者支出的好处会有更大的份额留在富国，而不是向下流向较贫穷的国家。

科林斯相信，这是发达国家和发展中国家经济健康状况“脱钩”的真正原因。前者目前的增长率高于趋势值，后者则低于趋势值。

“在过去的经济周期中，发达经济体不断上升的增长通常会提高对新兴经济体制成品和大宗商品的需求，表明全球商业周期会出现同步，”他说。

“然而，这种贸易渠道正失去作用，因为发达国家有相当一部分需求被导向了服务业——无论是消费还是投资方面的需求。”

其他人认同这种说法。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)首席新兴市场经济学家尼尔?希林(Neil Shearing)表示，全球经济重心转向服务业给发展中国家带来了“结构性问题”。

“这是一场有趣而重要的辩论。新兴市场需要可以贸易的东西，某种高生产率的活动——那样东西在过去一直就是制造业。”

“你能够通过服务贸易致富吗？服务业是否高附加值、高生产率的活动？”他问。

希林的确指出了一些新兴市场国家成功采纳出口拉动型服务的例子，比如印度的IT承包、波兰刚刚开始发展的后台会计、人力资源和法律服务。

然而，他又说：“我认为人们有理由认为通过服务致富是可能的，但这（比制造业）难得多、也更难以发展得起来。说通往繁荣的老路已经消失是无奈之下的建议。我不认为老路已经消失，但这条路更难走了。你需要更强有力的人力资本。”

布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)全球外汇策略主管马克?钱德勒(Marc Chandler)认为，这个问题目前可能还相对轻微，但在今后的数年中可能会严重恶化。

“这种情况对新兴市场不利。人们可以将其解读为，新兴市场将被发达国家的演化害惨，”他说，“或许这不反映当下的现实，而是反映出一种可能在未来5到10年变得更为重要的趋势。”

译者/何黎