【英语财经】中国官媒：索罗斯对人民币挑战不可能成功 Beijing warns Soros against ‘war on renminbi’ amid fresh turmoil

George Soros, the man who famously broke the pound, has been warned off going to “war on the renminbi” by Beijing, as China’s authorities again confronted tumbling stocks and accelerating capital flight.

The warning, on the front page of China’s Communist party mouthpiece, comes as Beijing struggles to stem capital outflows and support its currency. China’s policy response — through intervention to prop up the renminbi — has already scythed its foreign reserves by about $700bn over the past 18 months to $3.3tn.

“Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt,” read the opinion piece in the People’s Daily, which was penned by a commerce ministry researcher under the headline: “Declaring war on China’s currency? Ha ha.”

Mr Soros, the billionaire investor, told Bloomberg TV last week that he had bet against the S&P 500, Asian currencies and commodity-linked economies, while going long on US Treasuries.

Mr Soros mentioned neither the renminbi nor the Hong Kong dollar in his remarks last week but he did say China was the “root cause” of this year’s global bear market, citing deflation and excessive debt as key issues. He said a hard landing for the Chinese economy was “practically unavoidable”.

Chinese officials and state media have moved aggressively to shore up confidence in the renminbi in recent weeks, as they sought to damp speculation that a slowing economy might force Beijing into a destabilising devaluation.

The authorities are also trying to manage the risks posed by a falling stock market. Chinese equities sank to a 13-month low after the Shanghai Composite tumbled 6.4 per cent yesterday.

The Chinese currency has fallen 5.7 per cent against the US dollar since policymakers shocked global markets in August when they granted the renminbi more flexibility to depreciate.

Downward pressure has been building on the renminbi as capital leaves the country at a record pace. Data released yesterday showed that over-invoicing of Chinese exports — a common method for taking money out of the mainland — had ramped up again in December.

Mr Soros has been blamed for speculative attacks against currencies during the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the British pound in 1992. He announced his retirement from financial investment last year, but still serves as chairman of Soros Fund Management.

Mr Soros also indicated that China’s economic slowdown posed a greater short-term risk to other countries than to China itself, mainly because of China’s deflationary impact on global commodity prices.

“China can manage it,” he said. “It has resources and greater latitude in policies, with $3tn in reserves.”

In an English-language editorial on Saturday, the official Xinhua news agency criticised “those who want to bet on the ‘ultimate failure’ of the Chinese economy”. The article warned that “reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences”.

Officials at China’s foreign exchange regulator have repeatedly said they see “no basis” for big renminbi depreciation, and an adviser to president Xi Jinping said in Davos last week that China was not seeking a weaker currency.

曾以搞垮英镑闻名的乔治?索罗斯(George Soros)因为“对人民币宣战”受到北京方面警告。近日中国当局再度面临股市暴跌和资本外流加速。

中共机关报头版刊登这一警告之际，北京方面正在竭力阻止资本外流，并支持人民币汇率。中国的政策回应——通过干预来支撑人民币——已经使其外汇储备在过去18个月缩水约7000亿美元，降至3.3万亿美元。

中国商务部一名研究员在《人民日报海外版》发表题为“索罗斯向中国货币宣战？‘呵呵’”的评论文章，称：“索罗斯对人民币和港元的挑战不可能成功——对此，无须怀疑。”

亿万富翁投资者索罗斯上周告诉彭博电视台(Bloomberg TV)，他在做空标普500指数(S&P 500)、亚洲货币以及大宗商品相关经济体，同时做多美国国债。

索罗斯在上周发表的言论中并未提到人民币或港元，但他确实表示，中国是今年全球熊市的“根源”，关键问题包括通缩和举债过度。他表示，中国经济硬着陆“几乎不可避免”。

中国官员和官方媒体近几周忙于提振各方对人民币的信心，他们试图打消这样一种猜测，即经济放缓可能会迫使北京方面采取破坏稳定的贬值措施。

当局也在试图管控股市下跌构成的风险。中国股市跌至13个月低点，上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)昨日下跌6.4%。

自去年8月政策制定者决定让人民币具有更大的贬值灵活性、从而震撼全球市场以来，人民币兑美元汇率已下跌5.7%。

随着资本以创纪录速度撤离中国，人民币汇率的下行压力不断加大。昨日发布的数据显示，中国进出口领域虚开发票的做法（向中国境外转移资金的常用手法）在12月再度增加。

索罗斯曾因在1997年亚洲金融危机期间对几种货币发起投机性攻击、以及在1992年做空英镑而受到指责。他在去年宣布退休，不再从事金融投资，但继续担任索罗斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management)董事长。

索罗斯还表示，比起对中国本身，中国经济放缓对其它国家构成更大的短期风险，主要是因为中国给全球大宗商品价格带来通缩影响。

“中国可以对付，”他表示。“凭借3万亿美元储备，它拥有资源，在政策上拥有更大的自由度。”

官方的新华社上周六发表一篇英文社评，批评“有人想要打赌中国经济‘最终失败'”。文章警告，“鲁莽投机和恶意做空将面临更高的交易成本，还可能面临严重法律后果”。

中国外汇监管机构的官员们一再表示，他们认为人民币不存在大幅贬值的基础。国家主席习近平的一名顾问上周在达沃斯表示，中国并不寻求货币贬值。

译者/和风