【英语财经】投资缅甸经济特区风险莫测 China and Myanmar’s SEZs: strategic partnership or can of worms?

Since coming to power in 2011, Myanmar’s President Thein Sein has distanced the country from its previously tight-knit relationship with China in favour of rapprochement with the west and Japan.

Yet the past few months have seen a determined push by Beijing to re-engage Myanmar economically and politically, reminding Naypyidaw that it sees the country as a key strategic neighbour, particularly in the wake of recent general elections.

So Chinese officials will have looked on approvingly on December 30 when Myanmar’s parliament gave the go-ahead to the first phase of the Kyaukpyu special economic zone, awarded to a consortium of mostly Chinese companies led by

Citic Group

.

It is hoped that the $10bn-plus SEZ on Myanmar’s remote south-west coast will complement an existing oil pipeline linking Myanmar and China, in operation since 2013, and serve as a regional hub for logistics and mineral processing.

Citic began feasibility studies for the SEZ as far back as 2007. Yet the Myanmar government failed to award the project several times, partly due to a perceived lack of commercial viability and also because of a cooling in diplomatic relations.

China’s resurgent interest has been driven by growing competition with Japan for strategic influence in Myanmar and by Beijing’s desire to show concrete progress in its “One Belt, One Road” initiative.

Japanese investments are planned across a range of infrastructure sectors in Myanmar. Japan has successfully launched the $2bn Thilawa SEZ, a manufacturing hub near Yangon scheduled for completion by the middle of this year, and has shown interest in investing in the Dawei SEZ, a Thailand-backed industrial and logistics zone near the Thai border.

This has spurred a more aggressive response from China, including its first attempt to bankroll large-scale projects in Myanmar since the suspension of the $3.5bn Myitsone hydropower dam project under Thein Sein.

Yet while Kyaukpyu is now backed by China’s political and financial muscle, questions over its commercial and social viability remain unanswered.

Unlike other planned SEZs, it is far from Myanmar’s major cities and its borders with China and Thailand.

Infrastructure will be crucial in making the SEZ commercially viable.

“It is expected that Myanmar would invite the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to build 800km of new roads to connect Kyaukpyu to the Chinese border”, Win Myint, director of the bid evaluation committee for Kyaukpyu, told FT Confidential Research, a research service at the Financial Times.

Yet the days are gone when Myanmar’s military was able to push through its agenda and nullify local opposition.

Grass roots resistance presents a formidable obstacle to all of Myanmar’s planned SEZs. There is growing public opposition to the perceived domineering role of China and other foreign governments in SEZ megaprojects and to the land acquisition processes that typically accompany them.

Unless Citic and its partners are willing to single-handedly assume the risks of investing in the SEZ and sink billions of dollars in new infrastructure, Kyaukpyu runs the risk of following in Myitsone’s footsteps and getting forever embroiled in Myanmar’s vociferous local politics.

Gavin Bowring is director of research (Asean) at FT Confidential Research.

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自2011年吴登盛(Thein Sein)上台后，缅甸就开始疏远曾经的密友中国，而寻求与西方及日本恢复友好关系。

然而，过去几个月，北京方面决心推进中缅政治经济关系回暖——此举提醒内比都，中国将缅甸视为重要的战略邻邦，尤其是在后者近期举行大选之后。

因此，当去年12月30日缅甸议会批准皎漂(Kyaukpyu)经济特区第一期建设时，中国官员一定非常高兴，因为该项目被授与了中信集团(Citic Group)牵头的、主要由中国企业组成的财团。

人们希望，这个地理位置偏僻（位于缅甸西南海岸）、投资逾100亿美元的经济特区将对现有的一条连接中缅的石油管道（2013年开始运营）起到补充作用，并充当地区性的物流与矿产加工中心。

中信集团早在2007年就启动了对该经济特区的可行性研究。然而，缅甸政府数次叫停了该项目的招标，部分原因在于缅甸政府认为该项目缺乏商业可行性，也是因为中缅外交关系降温。

由于同日本在缅甸争夺战略影响力的竞争日益激烈，加之北京方面渴望展示“一带一路”倡议取得实质进展，中国又重新燃起了对投资缅甸的兴趣。

在缅甸，来自日本方面的投资计划涉及众多基础设施领域。日本已成功启动了投资20亿美元的迪拉瓦(Thilawa)经济特区项目，这个靠近仰光的制造中心计划于今年年中完工。日本还有意投资土瓦(Dawei)经济特区——一个靠近泰缅边境、由泰国支持的工业与物流区。

这激起了中国更为强烈的反应——包括自密松(Myitsone)水电站大坝项目被吴登盛下令搁置以来，首次尝试投资缅甸大型项目。密松水电项目原计划投资额为35亿美元。

虽然皎漂经济特区如今得到了中国的政治和资金支持，有关该项目商业及社会可行性的问题仍未得到解答。

不同于其他规划中的经济特区，皎漂经济特区距离缅甸的主要城市以及中缅、泰缅边境都比较远。

基础设施对这一经济特区的商业可行性而言将至关重要。



皎漂项目招标评审委员会主任吴温敏(Win Myint)对英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”(FT Confidential Research)表示：“预计缅甸会邀请亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)来投资建设长800公里、连接皎漂与中国边境的新公路。”

然而，缅甸军方可以不顾地方反对、推动通过自己的议程的日子已经一去不返。

基层民众的反对使缅甸所有规划中的经济特区都面临着巨大的障碍。缅甸民众越来越反感中国和其他外国政府在经济特区大型项目中盛气凌人的姿态，以及因这类项目而起的土地征用。

除非中信集团及其合作伙伴愿意独自承担投资皎漂经济特区的风险，并投入巨资建设新的基础设施，否则的话，皎漂项目有步密松大坝的后尘、没完没了地卷入缅甸地方政治乱局的风险。

加文?鲍令(Gavin Bowring)是英国《金融时报》旗下研究服务部门“投资参考”（东盟）研究主管。

译者/申凯