【英语财经】金融安全网已经消失？ Investors fret over withdrawal of safety net

For Federal Reserve policy officials gathering for the first time since their epoch-ending decision to raise interest rates in December, the backdrop this time could not be more different.

The long-awaited rate increase went smoothly, but simmering concerns over China, the global economy , commodities and financial market valuations have risen to the fore. Fund managers who were relaxed about slightly tighter monetary policy last month are wondering whether that was complacent.

“It is reasonable for investors to wonder whether Fed’s December rate hike was a policy error,” says Bob Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management. “Historically the Fed has raised rates because either growth or inflation was uncomfortably high. This time is different: growth is slow; wage growth is limited; deflation is being imported.”

Perhaps most of all investors fret that they are operating without a safety net to which they had grown attached during the post-financial crisis era.

Markets have been buffeted by powerful headwinds since 2008-09, ranging from predictable Middle East strife to the spectre of the disintegration of the euro. But central banks have been a constant source of comfort, suppressing interest rates and market volatility, reinforcing the view among investors that a “central bank put” is providing downside protection.

Such an assurance appears less certain given central banks’ latest actions. The Bank of Japan has not expanded its quantitative easing programme as expected; the European Central Bank dashed unrealistically high hopes of more eurozone QE in December; the People’s Bank of China has failed to calm concerns through aggressive action; and the Fed has started tightening monetary policy.

“The era of asset price reflation, fuelled by both post-crisis undervaluation and aggressive central bank easing, is over,” wrote Jeffrey Knight, global head of asset allocation at Columbia Threadneedle, in a note.

“It was fun while it lasted. Recovery of financial asset prices from the nadir of the great financial crisis has been dramatic, one of history’s most fruitful periods for investors. But 2015 returns were rather different, and the early experiences of 2016 only reinforce the likelihood of a new investment climate.”

For Stephen Jen, a hedge fund manager, this year’s sudden concern over China has merely been the trigger for a broader reappraisal of central banking puts and supposed omniscience.

“My guess is that the new strike prices for these central bank puts are probably 10 to 20 per cent below where the markets are now,” he recently told clients. “It is the presence of this ‘air pocket’ that was the main trigger for the equity sell-off at the start of the year.”

The danger is that turbulent financial markets become a self-fulfilling prophecy by undermining confidence and weakening the global economy. That could trigger a feedback loop where turmoil hurts growth, which in turn fuels more choppiness.

Most economists say the risk of a US recession this year are slim, but markets are pricing roughly even odds, and that has consequences. As Larry Fink, head of BlackRock, said last week, the ferocity of the stock market rout “puts a negativity across the economy, a negativity to every CEO looking at his or her stock price, a negativity about business”.

If financial turbulence infects the real economy, the Fed’s plan to raise rates four times this year becomes extremely challenging. Investors have long doubted this rate path; now they are virtually laughing at it.

The interest rate futures market indicates that the Fed may raise rates only once this year, and not until well into the second half. The “yield curve” — the slope derived from various bond maturities — has flattened sharply this year as the likelihood of tighter monetary policy has receded.

But investors should be careful not to throw in the towel and plough their money into guns, gold and agrarian land, assuming that the era of the central bank put is dead. As the ECB showed in timely fashion last week, central banks can still calm nerves when needed. While Mario Draghi did not produce any more monetary easing, his hints of action to come in March were strong enough to trigger a relief rally on Thursday and Friday, which could receive some more fuel this week.

In addition to the Fed’s meeting, the Bank of Japan’s policymakers will get together this Thursday and Friday. Even if there is little concrete action on the monetary front, most analysts expect clear signals that central banks remain on guard.

Jordi Visser, chief investment officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers, a hedge fund, says: “I don’t expect any sign from the Fed this month, but I expect a gradual shift in the tone if financial conditions continue to weaken .?.?. If fear gets to a high enough level to affect financial stability, I think the Fed would still step in to calm things down.”

美联储(Fed)政策官员即将召开自去年12月做出历史性加息决定以来的首次会议，然而此次会议的背景与先前相比已经大为不同。

期待已久的加息进展顺利，但对中国、全球经济、大宗商品以及金融市场估值的担忧已经急剧上升。对上月略微收紧的货币政策松了一口气的基金经理们开始怀疑这样是否太过自满。

“投资者有理由质疑美联储12月的加息是否为一项政策失误，”摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)首席投资官鲍勃?米歇尔(Bob Michele)说，“美联储历史上的加息都是因为增长或通胀处于令人不安的高位。而这次不同：增长缓慢；工资增长有限；通缩正在输入。”

也许投资者最担心的是他们正在没有金融安全网的情况下运作，而他们在后金融危机时期对后者的依赖已经加深。

自2008-09年金融危机爆发以来，市场一直遭受各种强大阻力——从预料之中的中东冲突到欧元解体的阴云——的冲击。但各国央行一直充当着稳定之源，压制着利率和市场波动，并让投资者相信“央行看跌期权”正在提供下行保护。

鉴于各国央行的最新举措，这样的保证似乎变得没那么让人放心了。日本央行(Bank of Japan)并未像预期那样扩大其量化宽松计划；去年12月，欧洲央行(ECB)也让欧元区推出更多量化宽松的不切实际希望落空；中国人民银行(PBoC)未能通过激进举措平息担忧；美联储已开始收紧货币政策。

天利投资(Columbia Threadneedle)资产配置全球主管杰弗里?奈特(Jeffrey Knight)在一份报告中写道：“由后危机时期的价值低估与央行激进的宽松政策共同推动资产价格膨胀的时代已经结束。”

“这个时代还未结束时着实让人兴奋。相较于金融危机时期的最低点，金融资产价格已大幅回升，这是历史上投资者获利最丰厚的时期之一。但2015年的获利情况大不相同，2016年开年的经历更是增加了出现新的投资气候的可能性。”

对冲基金经理任永力(Stephen Jen)认为，今年对中国突增的担忧，仅仅是引发对央行看跌期权及其应有的无所不能进行更广泛重新评估的导火索。

“我的猜测是，这些央行看跌期权的执行价可能比现在的市场价低10%至20%，”他最近告诉客户，“正是这个‘气穴’的存在引发了今年开年的股市抛售。”

危险的是，动荡的金融市场通过破坏投资者信心、削弱全球经济，成了一个自我应验的预言。这可能引发一个反馈循环，市场动荡损害经济增长，后者反过来又导致更多市场波动。

大多数经济学家表示今年美国经济衰退的风险比较小，但市场定价大约反映了50%的衰退概率，而这会产生影响。上周贝莱德(BlackRock)的首席执行官拉里?芬克(Larry Fink)表示股市溃败的猛烈性“让整个经济弥漫消极情绪，让每一个CEO在看着自己公司的股价时感到消极，让人们对商业感到消极。”

如果金融动荡影响到实体经济，将让美联储今年四次加息的计划变得极具挑战性。投资者早就怀疑这条利率路径，现在他们几乎是在嘲笑它。

利率期货市场显示，美联储今年可能仅会加息一次，而且会等到下半年才实行。随着货币政策收紧的可能性减弱，“收益率曲线”——从不同期限债券的收益率得出的曲线——今年急剧拉平。

但投资者应小心不要认输，不要假设央行看跌期权的时代已经彻底结束，从而将他们的资金投入到军火、黄金和耕地上。正如欧洲央行上周及时展现的那样，各央行仍可以在必要时镇定神经。尽管马里奥?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)并没有推出任何新的货币宽松政策，但他对将在3月采取行动的暗示强到足够在上周四和周五引发一场释放性的反弹，本周这波反弹可能会得到更多推力。

除了美联储的会议，日本央行的政策制定者将于周四和周五举行会议。即使各家央行在货币政策方面没有什么具体行动，但多数分析师预计它们会释放明确的信号以表明自己仍保持警惕。

对冲基金Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers的首席投资官霍尔迪?维瑟(Jordi Visser)表示：“我不指望美联储本月会释放任何信号，但如果金融形势继续疲软，我预计其口气会逐渐转变……如果市场忧虑上升到足以影响金融稳定的高度，我认为美联储仍会介入以平息事态。”

译者/何黎