【英语财经】达沃斯论战：金融科技成热点 Blockchain eclipses Basel III as fintech sets Davos abuzz

When the World Economic Forum staged its flagship debate about the future of the financial services industry this week in Davos it sparked a scrum.

But the Davos elite were not scrambling to listen to the debates that have dominated the WEF agenda in recent years, namely the financial crisis and regulatory reform; these are largely absent from the agenda this year. Instead the hot issue is how financial technology could revolutionise the world of money; topics such as blockchain have eclipsed discussions on Basel III.

But critics argue the shift is a little premature. After all, the day-to-day life of most senior bankers is still dominated by regulatory reform issues and parts of the eurozone banking world are still grappling with legacy problems such as Italian bankers who have earnestly been playing down concerns about bad loans.

The bankers attending Davos, however, insist the sector is on its strongest footing since before the crisis; capital reserves have increased, risk reduced, operations streamlined. Indeed, a survey from Edelman, the public relations firm, this week even showed that public trust in banks is rising.

“If you look at the amount of capital, oversight and approach to risk in the banking world today, I strongly believe that the banking system is a lot more solid than it was,” says Andrea Orcel, president of UBS investment bank.

But this does not mean the banks are out of the woods. “Trying to get the appropriate risk-adjusted returns from banks given the state of the economy, regulation, markets and the necessary transformation of both business models and cost structures is a challenge — and competition is rising,” says Mr Orcel.

The most intense source of this competitive challenge comes from fintech, and its potential to upend the status quo. This is affecting numerous aspects of finance, from back office payments to investment advice and retail payments.

The revolution is so dramatic the head of one big European bank told the audience in Davos cash might “cease to exist” in its current form in a decade.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund issued its first white paper on virtual currencies this week. It argued that while virtual currencies are still very small in scale — totalling $7bn in market value compared with the $1.4tn of US paper currency in circulation — they are exploding so fast that policymakers and bankers alike need to take note.

Many fintech companies, who are out in force for the first time this year in Davos, hope to use this financial revolution to disrupt the incumbent banks. But the banks are trying to fight back by developing their own fintech capabilities, while also collaborating — and purchasing — tech start-ups.

In the next few months, for example, senior officials at JPMorgan expect the bank to start settling loan trades using blockchain technology, the ledger that enables electronic payments.

Many of the new entrants argue the incumbent banks move too slowly to outwit the upstarts, while established financiers are apt to retort that the issue of fintech has been overhyped.

The issue of the blockchain, for example, is particularly controversial because of the debate over the virtual currency, bitcoin. “We know that bitcoin itself is a complete failure and shows the number one law of programming and software: that anything that can be programmed can be hacked. So nothing is completely secure,” said Willem Buiter, Citi’s chief economist and former member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee. “The cyber boys?.?.?.?believe that this is something that can just work on its own and allow a seamless web of costless transactions across the world. Forget it.”

Nevertheless, nobody expects this type of cynicism to undermine the enthusiasm for fintech at the WEF, particularly as the official theme for this year’s meeting is focused on technological revolutions.

The key new battle ground for the financial world is the issue of whether the new entrants will be subject to the same regulatory controls as incumbent banks — or whether these radical changes are concealing a new explosion of risk under the guise of “innovation”.

“If you’re going to be in the finance business, the finance regulation should be the same for everyone,” says Cathy Bessant, chief technology officer at Bank of America. Ms Bessant stresses that banks need to harness the power of technology and innovation, without reducing the capacity of the banking sector to absorb and deal with risk.

By this time next year that issue of regulation may be top of the agenda in the WEF finance debates again.

世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)本周在达沃斯就其首要辩题——金融服务业的未来——展开了讨论，结果引发了一场混战。

达沃斯精英们并没有争先恐后地去听那些关于金融危机和监管改革的讨论——近年来这类讨论占据了世界经济论坛的主要议程。今年的议程基本看不到这些主题，热点议题变成了金融科技将如何彻底改变金钱世界，区块链(blockchain)等话题的热度远超有关《巴塞尔协议III》(Basel III)的讨论。

但批评者认为这种转变有点超前。毕竟，大多数资深银行家日常要面对的问题仍主要是监管改革，部分欧元区银行仍在努力解决危机遗留问题，比如意大利银行家一直急于消除人们对不良贷款的担忧。

但出席达沃斯论坛的银行家坚称，从金融危机爆发前算起，目前银行业正处于最好的状态：资本储备增加了，风险降低了，业务也精简了。公共关系公司爱德曼(Edelman)本周的一份调查甚至表明，公众对银行的信任正在上升。

瑞银(UBS)投资银行部首席执行官安德烈亚?奥塞尔(Andrea Orcel)表示：“看看今天银行业的资本水平、监督和风控，我坚定地认为银行体系明显比以前稳健了。”

但这并不意味着银行业已经走出了困境。奥塞尔说：“考虑到经济状况、监管、市场等因素，以及商业模式和成本结构的必要转变，试图从银行获得适当的风险收益比是个挑战，而且竞争还在增加。”

这种由竞争带来的挑战的最激烈来源是金融科技，以及金融科技颠覆现状的可能性。它正在影响金融业的许多方面，包括后台支付、投资咨询以及零售支付。

这将引发一场剧烈的变革。欧洲一家大银行的负责人在达沃斯论坛上向观众表示，再过十年，现金可能“不再以当前的形式存在”。

与此同时，国际货币基金组织(IMF)本周发布了第一份虚拟货币白皮书。该组织认为，虽然虚拟货币的规模仍旧非常小——其市值共计70亿美元，而美国流通中的纸币为1.4万亿美元——但它们增长速度极快，政策制定者和银行家们都需要加以注意。

许多首次赴会的金融科技公司希望利用这场金融革命颠覆现有的银行。而银行正设法通过发展自己的金融科技能力进行反击，同时与科技创业型企业进行合作——或收购后者。

例如，摩根大通(JPMorgan)的高管预计，该行将在未来几个月开始使用区块链技术——这种数据区块技术可以应用在电子支付中——处理贷款交易。

许多金融领域的新进入者认为，现有银行行动太慢，竞争不过后起之秀。而资深的金融家反驳称，金融科技话题受到了过度炒作。

例如，由于围绕虚拟货币比特币(bitcoin)的争论，有关区块链问题的争议特别大。“我们知道，比特币本身是彻头彻尾的失败，证明了有关编程与软件的第一定律：任何编写的程序都可以被攻破。所以，没有绝对安全可靠的技术，”花旗(Citi)首席经济学家、前英国央行(BoE)利率设定委员会成员威廉?比特(Willem Buiter)说，“网络菜鸟们……认为这种东西仅靠自身就可以运转，而且可以在世界范围内形成一个零成本的无缝网络。别做梦了。”

然而，没人认为这种冷嘲热讽会破坏世界经济论坛上人们对金融科技的热情，何况今年会议的官方主题正是聚焦技术革命。

金融领域新的关键争议点是新进入者是否将接受与现有银行一样的监管——或者这些突破性变革是否在“创新”的幌子下掩盖了大量新风险。

美银(Bank of America)首席技术官凯茜?贝赞特(Cathy Bessant)说：“如果准备进入金融业，金融监管对所有人都应一视同仁。”贝赞特强调，银行需要利用技术与创新的力量，同时又不降低银行业吸收和应对风险的能力。

明年这个时候，监管问题可能再次成为世界经济论坛金融辩论的首要议题。

译者/何黎