【英语财经】沙特：油价跌破30美元是“非理性的” Saudi Arabia says $30 oil is ‘irrational’

Saudi Arabia has described the collapse in oil prices to below $30 as “irrational” and expects the market to recover in 2016 even as the country continues to keep production high.

Khalid al-Falih, chairman of state oil company Saudi Aramco, told the World Economic Forum in Davos that current prices would not last, with many smaller producers facing financial difficulties.

“The market has overshot on the low side and it is inevitable that it will start turning up,” said Mr Falih, predicting higher prices by the end of the year.

He reiterated that Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, would not cut supplies unilaterally or make way for rival producers.

A surge in US shale output over the past five years has contributed to a global supply glut that has pushed oil prices down 75 per cent in 18 months. The sell-off has accelerated this year, with crude dropping 30 per cent as Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival, prepares to re-enter the market after the lifting of sanctions.

While he called the short-term oil outlook “bleak”, Mr Falih said Saudi Arabia, which is considering a stock market flotation of part of Saudi Aramco, would weather the downturn better than many of its rivals.

Saudi Arabia has said it would consider production cuts if other Opec members participated and if the cartel was joined by the largest producers outside the group, such as Russia.

Mr Falih said, however, that in contrast to events such as the global financial crisis, which led Opec to cut its production, the advent of US shale oil had been a structural supply shift.

His comments suggest Saudi Arabia believes cuts may not be able to influence the price even with the help of other countries.

沙特阿拉伯认为油价暴跌至每桶30美元下方是“非理性”的，并预测，即便该国继续将产量维持在高位，石油市场在2016年也将回暖。

沙特国有石油集团沙特阿美(Saudi Aramco)的董事长哈立德?法利赫(Khalid al-Falih)在达沃斯世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上表示，当前的价格不会持续下去，很多规模较小的产油国正面临财务困境。

法利赫表示：“市场跌得过头了，油价开始掉头向上是不可避免的。”他预测，油价将不晚于今年底走高。

他重申，世界最大石油出口国沙特不会单方面削减供应，也不会对其他产油国退让。

过去5年，美国页岩油产量飙升促成了全球石油供应过剩，这推动油价在18个月内暴跌了75%。今年，石油市场上的抛售加快了脚步，原油价格已下跌30%，原意是沙特在中东的竞争对手伊朗在制裁解除后准备重新进入市场。

法利赫认为石油市场短期前景“黯淡”，但他表示，与很多竞争对手相比，沙特将能够更好地熬过市场的这段低迷。该国正考虑让沙特阿美的部分业务上市。

沙特表示它会考虑减产，前提是石油输出国组织（Opec，简称：欧佩克）其他成员国以及俄罗斯等该组织之外的大型产油国也减产。

然而，法利赫表示，与全球金融危机（导致欧佩克减产）等事件相比，美国页岩油的出现令供应发生了结构性变化。

他的言论暗示，沙特认为即便有其他国家的帮衬，减产可能也无法影响油价。

译者/梁艳裳