【英语财经】中国经济：增速v绝对增量 China adds G20-sized economy every year

China’s economy grew 6.9 per cent last year, according to official figures released on Tuesday, the slowest pace since 1990.

Growth in the Asian powerhouse has fallen markedly in recent years, with real gross domestic product expanding at less than half the pace of 2007. The ruling Communist party projects an average annual growth rate of 6.5 per cent over the next five years, in contrast to an average of more than 10 per cent in the first decade of the century.

But while the global investment community tends to focus on the headline growth number, it is easy to forget that because China’s economy is so much bigger after its tremendous growth spurt, in terms of absolute growth it is still contributing more to the global economy than it did a decade ago.

The first chart plots the dramatic decline in China’s headline growth number, from a peak of 14.2 per cent in 2007 to 7.3 per cent in 2014, against the annual nominal increase in the size of the country’s economy.

On the eve of the global financial crisis in 2007, the annual increase in China’s nominal GDP was $793.3bn. In 2014 it was even bigger, at $864.2bn, despite the marked deceleration in economic growth.

Another way to appreciate the sheer size of the Chinese economy — and just how much bigger it continues to get every year — is to compare the annual nominal increase with the sizes of other national economies.

As shown by the chart below, if China’s increase in nominal output in 2007 was ranked as a country in its own right, it would have qualified for a seat at the G20, just ahead of Turkey (the 17th-largest economy at the time).

In the wake of the crisis, the Chinese government unleashed a Rmb4tn stimulus that acted as a huge catalyst for its economy — spurring real growth from 9.2 per cent in 2009 to 10.6 per cent in 2010 — as well as global demand.

Despite the marked slowdown since then — as the leadership team headed by President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang embraced a “new normal” of slower, more sustainable and more environmentally friendly growth — China continues to contribute the equivalent of a large developing country to the global economy each year.

When China’s output grew “only” at 7.3 per cent in 2014, its slowest rate of growth in almost a quarter century, the absolute increase in nominal output was again bigger than Turkey’s entire economy.

根据本周二发布的官方数据，去年中国经济增长了6.9%，是自1990年以来经济增速最慢的一年。

近年来，这个亚洲强国的经济增速显著放缓，实际国内生产总值(GDP)的增速还不到2007年的一半。执政的中国共产党预计接下来5年的平均年增长率为6.5%，相较之下，本世纪前10年中国的平均年增长率超过10%。

全球投资界往往把关注焦点放在总体增长数字上，人们很容易忘记一点：经过迅猛增长之后，中国的经济总量已经变得大得多，以绝对增量计算，中国对全球经济的贡献仍然比10年前多。

第一张图显示中国总体增长数字大幅下降，从2007年的峰值14.2%降至2014年的7.3%。图中也画出了中国各年名义GDP的绝对增量。

在濒临爆发全球金融危机的2007年，中国的名义GDP增加7922亿美元。2014年，尽管经济增速显著放缓，名义GDP增长值更大，为8642亿美元。



要理解中国经济庞大规模，以及中国经济规模每年增大多少，还有一个方法是将中国的年度名义增量和其他国家的经济规模相比较。

如下图所示，如果将中国在2007年的名义经济产出增长量单列为一国，它能够在二十国集团(G20)中占有一席之地，刚好排在土耳其之前（土耳其是当时的第17大经济体）。



在危机之后，中国政府出台了一项4万亿元人民币的经济刺激计划，作为刺激中国经济，以及全球需求的有力催化剂。该计划刺激中国实际经济增长率从2009年的9.2%加快至2010年的10.6%。

尽管这之后中国经济显著放缓，由国家主席习近平和总理李克强为首的领导团队接受了更缓慢、更可持续、对环境更友好的增长“新常态”，但中国每年继续以相当于一个发展中大国经济总量的规模为全球经济做出贡献。



尽管中国经济产出在2014年“仅仅”增长7.3%，是近25年以来增速最慢的一年，其名义产出的绝对增量又一次超过了土耳其的经济总量。

译者/许雯佳