【英语财经】全球市场动荡传递了什么信息？ What market turbulence is telling us

Bull markets, it is said, climb a wall of worry. There are certainly plenty of reasons to worry. But markets are no longer climbing, which indicates the bull market is dead. Since markets are already highly valued, that would not be surprising.

Standard & Poor’s composite index of the US market has in effect marked time since June 2014. According to Robert Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, the US market has been significantly more highly valued than it is at present only during the disastrous bubbles that burst in 1929 and 2000. Professor Shiller’s well-known measure of value is not perfect. But it is a warning that stock market valuations are already generous and that a continued bull market might be dangerous.

Still more important, a portfolio rebalancing is under way. The most important shift is in the perceived economic and financial prospects for emerging economies. As a result, capital is now flowing out of emerging economies. These outflows are driving the strong dollar. Given that, the US Federal Reserve’s decision to tighten monetary policy looks like an important blunder.

In its new Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank brings out the extent of the disillusionment with (and within) emerging economies. It notes that half of the 20 largest developing country stock markets experienced falls of 20 per cent or more from their 2015 peaks. The currencies of commodity exporters (including Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Russia and South Africa), and of big developing countries subject to rising political risks (including Brazil and Turkey), fell to multiyear lows both against the US dollar and in trade-weighted terms.

Global investors withdrew about $52bn from emerging market equity and bond funds in the third quarter of 2015. This was the largest quarterly outflow on record. Net short-term debt and bank outflows from China, combined with retrenchment in Russia, accounted for the bulk of this; but portfolio and short-term capital inflows dried up elsewhere in the third quarter of 2015. Net capital flows to emerging and frontier economies even fell to zero, the lowest level since the 2008-09 crisis (see chart). An important feature is not just the reduction in inflows but also the sheer size of outflows from affected economies.

What lies behind this? The pull from the expected tightening of US monetary policy is one reason. Another is the impact of falling commodity prices on a number of emerging economies, including Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Yet another factor is geopolitical instability, notably in the Middle East. Corruption scandals tend to emerge when the economic tides go out; it is not surprising therefore that Brazil’s leadership is embroiled in a big and spreading scandal. China’s President Xi Jinping is seeking to clean the stables — but such a pursuit of corruption itself damages confidence.

Yet the most important reason of all is realisation of the deteriorating performance of the emerging economies — in cyclical and, more significant still, structural terms. (See chart.) Of the five Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), only India is experiencing a revival. Worse, on average, about a third of the slowdown among the 24 largest emerging economies between 2010 and 2014 was structural. A particular concern is the decline in the rate of growth of “total factor productivity” — a broad measure of efficiency. Also worrying is the slowing growth of trade, itself partly a result and partly a cause of weaker growth. Globalisation is losing dynamism.

China is much the most important emerging economy. Market turmoil has reduced confidence in the competence of its leadership. But it is vital to understand that its problems are not amenable to any quick technocratic fixes. The economy is extremely unbalanced, with incredibly high savings rates, wastefully high investment rates and high debt.

A natural way to solve this problem might be to allow capital outflows, a big depreciation of the renminbi and so a re-emergence of large current account surpluses. But such a “solution” would threaten the stability of the rest of the world economy, particularly since the eurozone and Japan have already chosen much the same option. Beijing is resisting the pressure: gross foreign currency reserves have fallen by $660bn (17 per cent) since June 2014. Yet, if this continues (and it surely will) the authorities will have to tighten outflow controls, which would undermine reforms; or let the exchange rate slump, which would destabilise the world.

What is happening in developing economies directly affects the lives of many billions of people. It is also of global economic importance. Another set of credit bubbles, that in emerging economies, is loudly popping. This is going to leave a legacy of financial shocks and, if mishandled, bad debt.

Yet cleaning up the aftermath of financial mistakes — a depressingly familiar experience — is just a part of the challenge the world confronts. Equally important is finding a powerful new engine of demand as old ones splutter and die. It is not at all obvious where this is to be found. But the rest of the world is hoping, probably over-optimistically, that the US will provide what it seeks. Unfortunately, it will not do so. It would not have done so even if the Fed had chosen not to tighten. The adjustment ahead for a world economy so addicted to credit bubbles is going to be difficult. It will probably be no outright disaster. But it is not going to be much fun either.

据说，牛市爬上了一堵忧虑之墙。当然有很多忧虑的理由。然而市场却不再攀升，显示牛市已经终结。由于股市早已估值过高，这一点并不会让人吃惊。

标准普尔(Standard & Poor)的美国股市综合指数，自2014年6月以来实际上在原地踏步。根据罗伯特?席勒(Robert Shiller)经周期性调整后的市盈率，只有在1929年和2000年破裂的灾难性泡沫期间，美国股市的估值才显著高于当前。席勒教授广为人知的估值指标并不完美。然而，它提供了一个警示，即股市估值已经太高了，持续的牛市可能十分危险。

更重要的是，目前正在发生一轮投资组合调整。其中最重要的变化，发生在人们对新兴经济体经济和金融前景的看法。受其影响，资金如今正流出新兴经济体。这些外流资金正在推动美元走强。考虑到这一点，美联储(Fed)收紧货币政策的决定看起来似乎是一次重大错误。

在新的《全球经济展望》(Global Economic Prospects)报告中，世界银行(World Bank)向人们呈现了外界对新兴经济体（以及新兴经济体内部）幻想破灭的程度。该行指出，20个最大的发展中国家中，半数国家的股市比2015年的峰值下跌了20%或以上。大宗商品出口国（包括巴西、印尼、马来西亚、俄罗斯和南非）和遭遇不断攀升的政治风险的大型发展中国家（包括巴西和土耳其）的货币，不管是兑美元汇率还是贸易加权汇率，都跌至多年低点。

2015年第三季度，全球投资者从新兴市场的股权和债券基金撤出了大约520亿美元。这是有记录以来的最大规模季度资金外流。来自中国的短期债务和银行资金净流出，以及俄罗斯的紧缩，是上述资金外流的主要原因；但2015年第三季度其他地方的投资组合和短期资金流入也出现枯竭。流入新兴经济体和前沿经济体的净资金流甚至降至零，是2008年到2009年危机以来的最低水平（参见图表）。一个重要的特点是，不仅仅流入资金在减少，受影响经济体流出资金的规模还十分巨大。



这背后的原因是什么？一个原因是预期中的美国收紧货币政策所产生的影响。另一个原因是大宗商品价格下跌对包括俄罗斯、巴西和南非在内的许多新兴经济体的影响。还有一个原因则是地缘政治的不稳定，特别是中东局势。当经济热潮退去的时候，往往会出现腐败丑闻。因此，巴西领导人卷入一场大规模的、不断扩散的丑闻并不让人奇怪。中国国家主席习近平正在寻求清理腐败现象，然而这种反腐行为本身也会损伤人们的信心。

不过，最重要的原因是新兴经济体经济表现恶化，这种恶化既是周期性的，更重要地，也是结构性的（参见图表）。在包括巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非在内的金砖国家(Brics)中，只有印度正在经历复苏。更糟糕的是，平均来说，2010年到2014年期间，24个最大新兴经济体经济放缓的三分之一是由于结构性原因。尤其令人担心的是，“全要素生产率”(total factor productivity)——一个宽泛的效率衡量指标——的增长速度下滑。还有一个令人担忧之处则是贸易增长放缓，这个问题本身既是增长放缓的结果，也是增长放缓的原因。全球化进程正在失去动力。

中国在很大程度上是最重要的新兴经济体。市场的波动降低了人们对中国领导层能力的信心。不过，很重要的一点是要认识到，中国的问题不是任何技术官僚可以轻易快速解决的。中国经济极度不平衡，有令人难以置信的高储蓄率、浪费极大的高投资率和很高的债务。

解决这个问题的一个自然而然的途径可能是允许资金外流、人民币大幅贬值以及经常账户再度出现巨额盈余。但这种“解决方案”将危及全球经济剩余部分的稳定，尤其是欧元区和日本已选择大体相同的方案。中国正抵制这种压力：自2014年6月以来，中国外汇储备总额已减少6600亿美元（降幅17%）。然而，如果这种趋势持续下去（而且肯定会如此），政府将不得不收紧资金外流控制，这将破坏改革；或者让汇率下跌，这将令全球不稳。



发展中经济体的事态发展直接影响数十亿人的生活。它也具有全球经济重要性。又一轮信贷泡沫——新兴经济体的信贷泡沫，正大举破裂。这将造成金融冲击，如果处理不当，还会产生坏账。

然而，清理金融失误的烂摊子（这种事情熟悉到令人沮丧）只是全球面临的挑战的一部分。同样重要的是，在旧的需求引擎劲头不足和停止运转之际，找到一个新的强有力的需求引擎。现在我们一点也不清楚，会在哪里找到这个新引擎。但全球其他地区希望（或许有些过于乐观）美国将提供他们所寻找的东西。不幸的是，美国不会提供。即便美联储当时选择不加息，美国也不会提供。如此沉迷于信贷泡沫的全球经济所面临的调整将是艰难的。这或许算不上彻底的灾难。但它也不会带来很多乐趣。

译者/何黎