【英语财经】FT社评：人民币困境在于资本外逃 Leader_Capital flight is at the core of China’s dilemma

China has been giving plenty of assurances this week of the inherent resilience of the renminbi. Betting that it will slide is “ridiculous and impossible”, officials assert.

Yet rhetoric alone is unlikely to satisfy investors, who have struggled to interpret the twists and turns in China’s currency policy since the shock devaluation in August. Confusion over China’s intentions for the renminbi, and its ability to control it, was a big factor in the financial turbulence that rocked global markets at the start of the year. To many onlookers, a much bigger depreciation, which would have profound effects on global trade and capital flows, seems all too plausible.

The main concern, however, should not be the renminbi’s relatively modest fall against the dollar. Volatility may be unsettling but, measured against the currencies of China’s trading partners, recent moves in the renminbi look much less alarming.

Moreover, Beijing has made it reasonably clear that it has no wish to engineer a competitive devaluation, which could lead other governments to retaliate and would make it harder to rebalance the economy away from exports.

The real worry is that China is struggling to formulate a consistent policy and to prevent a controlled decline turning into an old-fashioned run on the renminbi. When the central bank overhauled its policy in August, its stated aim was to give market forces a greater role in determining the exchange rate, with a view to securing the renminbi’s inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights basket, alongside traditional reserve currencies. But it swiftly found itself forced to prop up the currency, spending a sixth of its foreign exchange reserves in five months.

This reflects the scale of capital flight under way as lower interest rates, worries about the economic outlook and the clampdown on corruption drive Chinese people to take their wealth out of the country. Fitch estimates gross capital outflows from mid-2014 to the end of 2015 at more than $1tn.

As long as these pressures persist, officials managing the situation have few attractive options. They could carry on using official reserves to prop up the renminbi, which would have fallen more steeply without central bank intervention. But even China, with its $3.3tn stockpile, cannot burn reserves at that rate indefinitely. They could adopt tighter capital controls, reversing the thrust of recent liberalisation. They could let the renminbi go but risk a steep depreciation that would be a shock to the global economy. Few would contemplate the economic cost of raising interest rates to support the currency.

Hence the mixed messages from policymakers. In practice, the central bank has continued acting to limit depreciation, this week stepping into the Hong Kong offshore market. The authorities also seem to be cracking down on the routes people use to take money out of China. Yet at the same time, they are urging investors to view the daily “fixing” of the exchange rate as an expression of market forces, not as a signal of any official intent.

These measures are a reasonable short-term response to an unenviable situation. And the immediate pressure in markets may be easing, with the renminbi bolstered today by better trade data for December. However, they do not add up to a coherent policy. Nor will creating a unit to co-ordinate policy solve the underlying issues. If the government wants to restore international confidence in the renminbi, it will have to articulate a domestic economic policy that gives the Chinese confidence to keep their savings at home.

【秒懂】最近人民币出了啥状况？本周，中国一再保证人民币具有内在的韧性。官员们称，预期人民币贬值是“荒谬、不可能的”。

空口白话不太可能令投资者满意。自去年8月人民币突然贬值以来，中国货币政策表现得迂回曲折，让投资者难以看懂。对中国汇率政策意图和控制人民币汇率能力的困惑，是新年伊始全球金融市场动荡的一大因素。在许多旁观者看来，再出现一波更大幅度的贬值似乎极有可能，这会对全球贸易和资本流动产生深远影响。

然而，人们最应该担心的，不是人民币兑美元汇率相对温和的下跌。人民币汇率的波动也许会令人不安，但是以相对中国贸易伙伴国的货币衡量，人民币近期的变动并不是那么令人担忧。

此外，中国政府已相当明确地表示，无意发起一轮竞争性贬值。这样的贬值可能会招致其他国家采取报复性措施，同时加大中国减少出口依赖的经济再平衡的难度。

真正令人担忧的，是中国难以制定一贯性的政策，阻止人民币从有控制的下跌演变成旧式的对人民币的“挤兑”。中国央行去年8月调整汇率政策时，对外宣称的目标是让市场在确定人民币汇率时发挥更大作用，其目的是为了让人民币被纳入国际货币基金组织(IMF)的特别提款权(SDR)货币篮子，与传统储备货币比肩。不过，该行很快就发现自己被迫出手支撑人民币汇率，为此在五个月里花掉了六分之一的外汇储备。

这种状况反映出正在发生的资本外逃的规模，而导致这波资本外逃的原因，包括利率的降低、对经济前景的担忧、以及反腐运动，这些因素促使中国人将财富带出中国。据惠誉(Fitch)估计，从2014年中到2015年底，资本流出总规模超过1万亿美元。

只要上述压力继续存在，主管官员就没有多少有吸引力的选择。他们可以继续动用官方储备支撑人民币汇率——没有央行干预人民币会跌得更快。然而，即便是拥有3.3万亿外汇储备的中国，也不能以这样的速度无限地把外汇储备消耗下去。他们可以实施更严格的资本管制，扭转最近的自由化趋势。他们可以放手不管人民币汇率，但这样人民币有急剧贬值的风险，这会对全球经济造成冲击。没几个人会去细想通过加息支撑人民币汇率的经济成本。

因此中国政策制定者传出了相互矛盾的信号。在实践中，中国央行已继续采取行动

限制人民币贬值，本周还曾进入香港离岸人民币交易市场。当局似乎也在打击资金流出中国的渠道。然而与此同时，他们却要求投资者将每日人民币汇率中间价的确定视为市场因素的作用，而不是体现任何官方意图的信号。

这些举措是对艰难局面合理的短期回应。而且，市场当前的压力也许正在减轻，12月份贸易数据改善在周三对人民币构成了支撑。然而，所有这些举措加起来并不能组成连贯的政策。成立一个政策协调部门也不会解决根本性的问题。如果中国政府想要恢复国际上对人民币的信心，就必须清楚阐明一套国内经济政策，令中国人有信心将存款留在国内。

译者/简易