【英语财经】Lex专栏：投资中国航空股？ Lex_Chinese airlines: caveat trader

Airline shares are always bad investments; sometimes they make a nice trade. Is now the time for that trade? On Wednesday, as Hong Kong listed Chinese H shares staged a limp rebound, China Eastern and China Southern rose 6 per cent; Air China by half as much.

Even after the bounce, China’s airline stocks look bombed out. This is unsurprising. With most of their debt denominated in US dollars, the airlines have taken a big hit from the falling renminbi. In the third quarter of 2015, Air China lost more than $500m in profit to a yuan which fell 2.5 per cent, leaving it with net profits of just over $350m. Although both China Southern and China Eastern hedge, purportedly, each recorded similar losses.

The bleeding will get worse. During the fourth quarter, the yuan fell 3.5 per cent. It is expected to fall further yet. Worse, the weakness may be a symptom of an economy in dire straits, which has unsettling implications for demand. Recent data, such as figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showing record high Chinese arrivals for 2015, will not allay these fears. Much of that travel will have been booked before China’s currency volatility began. The continuing fight against corruption, now spreading into the private sector, could put a further squeeze on high-end demand.

The falling oil price provides a bit of hope. In the first half, as oil prices halved from the year before, airlines’ fuel costs fell about 30 per cent (capacity additions were an offsetting factor). They saved between $700m and $800m apiece. Yet although second-half effects should be similar, most of the benefit may have already accrued. Between the third and fourth quarters, the year-on-year oil price decline slowed — just as the currency fall accelerated. Airlines need to make as much as 30 per cent of full-year earnings in the fourth quarter to hit analysts’ estimates, so they need to finish strongly. This looks increasingly unlikely.

For a trade this may not matter. But traders should wait until the end of March, when full-year results are out, to try their luck. Trades gone wrong have a way of becoming investments.

航空股永远是糟糕的投资；但有时它们也带来短线操盘机会。现在是做这种短线交易的时候了吗？周三，随着在香港上市的中国H股出现反弹，东航(China Eastern)和南航(China Southern)的股票都上涨了6%，国航(Air China)上涨了3%。

即便是股价反弹之后，中国的航空股看起来也像被轰炸过一般。这不足为奇。大部分债务以美元计价的这些航空公司，受人民币贬值打击巨大。2015年第三季度，国航因人民币贬值2.5%损失5亿美元利润，净利润略高于3.5亿美元。虽然南航和东航据称都做了汇率对冲，但两者也宣布了类似损失。

伤势还将加重。2015年第四季度期间，人民币贬值3.5%。预期还将进一步贬值。更糟的是，人民币的疲软可能是中国经济陷入可怕困境的征兆，这对需求具有令人不安的影响。近期公布的数据（澳大利亚统计局的数据显示，2015年中国游客入境人数创下最高纪录）不会消除这一担忧。这些游客的行程多数是在中国汇率波动开始之前就已定下的。持续的反腐败斗争如今已扩大至私营部门，可能进一步挤压高端市场需求。

不断下跌的油价提供了一线光明。去年上半年，随着油价同比下降一半，航空燃料成本减少了约30%（新增的运能是一个抵消因素）。上述航空公司都节省了7亿至8亿美元。然而，尽管下半年本应出现类似的效果，但大部分效益可能已经发生。从第三季度到第四季度，油价同比下跌放缓了——同时人民币贬值加速了。各航空公司需要在第四季度实现高达30%的全年盈利，才能达到分析师们的预期，因此他们必须在接近年底时表现强劲。这看起来越来越不可能。

对短线炒股来说这可能不重要。但操盘手应该等到3月底全年业绩报告出炉后再来碰运气。被套的短线交易往往会成为“长线投资”。



Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析

译者/艾卜