【英语财经】外管局：中国金融体系“总体稳健” China claims it has a ‘stable and healthy’ financial system

China’s financial system is “largely stable and healthy,” the country’s foreign exchange regulator said at the weekend in an effort to reassure global markets as investors braced for a possible resumption of last week’s market turmoil.

Attention is likely to focus on China’s central bank and its management of the renminbi this week, after the markets regulator appeared to stabilise last week’s stock sell-off by scrapping a controversial “circuit breaker” mechanism and extending a ban on share sales by large shareholders.

The renminbi fell 1.5 per cent against the dollar in onshore trading last week to Rmb6.59 — a sharp move for the carefully managed currency. Traders have largely ignored the central bank’s guidance that they should focus on the renminbi’s stability against a basket of 13 currencies rather than volatility against the dollar.

Offshore the renminbi fell 1.7 per cent against the dollar to Rmb6.68, widening the spread between the two rates to a record level. The gap implies that international investors are pricing in further weakening of the onshore rate. Before the People’s Bank of China unexpectedly devalued the currency in August, the two rates traded at virtually the same level.

More recently, the PBoC has been letting the onshore rate weaken and intervening in the offshore market to limit the gap. Separately, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) has been scrutinising banks that help clients arbitrage between the two – a move that some critics feel is inconsistent with the International Monetary Fund’s recent designation of the renminbi as an official reserve currency under its special drawing rights (SDR) regime.

“We seem to be drifting back into a two-tiered [renminbi] system and that is worrying,” said one investment strategist, who asked not to be named.

“How can you be in the SDR and yet you penalise banks for arbitraging between the two rates?” he added. “It’s outrageous and wrong. They shouldn’t be in the SDR and doing that. They should be making sure they continue liberalising to unify the two rates.”

The IMF identified the rising spread between the onshore and offshore RMB rates as an “operational challenge” when it decided in November to include the currency in the basket used to value its special drawing rights from October 1 this year. But it also argued that reforms underway would eventually allow “unencumbered” access to China’s onshore markets. Any moves to restrict that access so soon after its big vote of confidence in Beijing and China’s reform path would be potentially embarrassing for the IMF.

In a statement at the weekend, Safe tried to reassure investors. “China’s economic fundamentals are strong,” the regulator said. “Foreign exchange reserves are relatively abundant and the financial system is largely stable and healthy.”

The PBoC last week blamed “speculative forces” for the renminbi’s recent weakness against the dollar. Last month, China’s foreign exchange reserves fell by a record $108bn — a number that reflects rising capital outflows as well as the cost of intervention.

“Investors should not expect the authorities to keep running down the reserves to keep the [renminbi] stable indefinitely against the dollar,” Mansoor Mohi-uddin, a market strategist with RBS in Singapore, wrote in a research note on Saturday.

Over the past 12 months, China’s forex reserves have fallen by more than $500bn, although many analysts argue that this is not a concern as the country currently holds far more reserves than comparable economies and can afford to let them run down further.

“Another few months of this and China would have burnt through over one-third of its peak reserve level in defending its currency since July 2014,” Miranda Carr, an analyst at Haitong Securities, wrote at the weekend.

She added: “So far China in 2016 appears to be everyone’s worse nightmare come true.”

Additional reporting by Shawn Donnan, Jackie Cai and Christian Shepherd

中国国家外汇管理局(SAFE)在刚刚过去的周末表示，中国金融体系“总体稳健”，此言显然是为了安抚全球市场。目前投资者正准备面对上周市场动荡重演的可能性。

本周人们很可能聚焦于中国央行及其对人民币的管理。上周市场监管机构通过放弃有争议的“熔断机制”和延长禁止大股东售股的禁令，似乎遏止了股市抛售。

人民币兑美元在岸汇率上周下跌1.5%，至1美元兑6.59元人民币——这对受到精心管理的人民币是一个大幅变动。交易员们基本上忽略了央行的指引，即他们应该关注人民币相对于一篮子13种货币的稳定性，而非相对于美元的波动性。



与此同时，人民币兑美元离岸汇率下降1.7%，至1美元兑6.68元人民币，使在岸和离岸汇率之间的差异达到创纪录水平。这种差异意味着国际投资者正在定价中计入在岸汇率将进一步走低的因素。在中国人民银行(PBoC)去年8月出乎意料地让人民币贬值之前，这两个利率处在几乎相同的水平。

近来，中国央行允许在岸汇率走低，同时在离岸市场出手干预，以求限制汇率差异。另外，外管局近来密切审查一些帮助客户利用在岸和离岸汇率差异套利的银行——有一些批评者认为，此举与国际货币基金组织(IMF)不久前指定人民币为其特别提款权(SDR)体系下的一种官方储备货币是格格不入的。

“我们似乎在渐渐倒退，回到两层（人民币）体系，这是令人担忧的，”一位不愿透露姓名的投资策略师表示。

“你怎么能一方面进入SDR，而另一方面惩罚银行在两个汇率之间进行套利呢？”他继续说。“那是离谱和错误的。他们不应该既跻身于SDR体系内部，又这样做。他们应该确保自己继续开放，使两个汇率趋同。”

IMF在去年11月决定从今年10月1日起将人民币纳入其SDR货币篮子时，确实指出在岸和离岸人民币汇率之间越来越大的差异是一项“操作上的挑战”。但它也提出，正在推进的改革最终将让投资者“不受妨碍地”进入中国在岸市场。在对北京方面和中国改革进程投下重大信心票之后，这么快就遭遇限制市场准入的行为，潜在对IMF是一件难堪的事情。

外管局在周末发表的声明中试图让投资者放心。“我国经济金融运行总体平稳，经济发展基本面好，”这家监管机构表示。“外汇储备较为充裕，金融体系总体稳健。”

中国央行上周将人民币近期相对于美元的疲软归咎于“投机势力”。上月，中国外汇储备下降了创纪录的1080亿美元——这个数字既反映了干预的成本，也反映了资本外流上升。

“投资者不应该期望当局将为了无限期地保持人民币兑美元稳定而继续消耗储备，”常驻新加坡的苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)市场策略师曼苏尔?莫希-乌丁(Mansoor Mohi-uddin)上周六在一份研究简报中写道。

过去12个月期间，中国外汇储备累计下降逾5000亿美元，尽管许多分析师认为，这不是一个问题，因为中国拥有的外汇储备比同类经济体多得多，因而可以承受外汇储备进一步下降。

“如果这样的局面再持续几个月，中国自2014年7月以来为了捍卫人民币将烧掉超出峰值水平三分之一的外汇储备，”海通证券(Haitong Securities)分析师米兰达?卡尔(Miranda Carr)周末写道。

她补充说：“到目前为止，2016年的中国似乎是每个人的噩梦成真。”

肖恩?唐南(Shawn Donnan)、蔡洁晶(Jackie Cai)和克里斯蒂安?谢帕德(Christian Shepherd)补充报道

译者/和风