【英语财经】新兴市场将面临更大压力 Emerging economies are coming under ‘even more pressure’

Policymakers in emerging markets should brace themselves for another round of growth challenges, analysts have warned, after last week’s turmoil on China’s stock and currency markets spread across the world.

“The year has started with Chinese volatility and with more doubts about Chinese policy in general, and that puts even more pressure on emerging markets,” says Maarten-Jan Bakkum, senior emerging market strategist at NN Investment Partners.

The most direct threat comes from the sharp and unexpected depreciation of China’s currency, the renminbi, which fell 1.3 per cent against the dollar last week.

China’s role in global trade means a weakening renminbi puts pressure on other EM currencies to weaken, too.

This can help EM exporters as a weakening currency makes their goods more competitive but that advantage can be dwarfed by the difficulties of paying foreign currency debts in a devalued local currency.

Many EM companies filled up on cheap foreign currency debt during years of the US’s ultra-loose monetary policies, which have now gone into reverse.

Foreign currency debt at EM companies rose from $900bn to $4.4tn in the decade to mid-2015, according to the Institute of International Finance, an industry association, using data from the Bank for International Settlements.

Yet there is potentially a much greater problem, say analysts, in the even bigger build-up of local currency debt in emerging markets over the same decade, when total foreign and local currency debt rose from the equivalent of $5.4tn to $24.4tn, or 90 per cent of EM gross domestic product, according to the IIF.

These debts too are vulnerable to a falling renminbi, partly because EM banks find it harder to raise funding abroad as their currencies weaken, making them less able to “roll over” company loans.

Local bank lending is also affected by weakening economic growth, sector-specific risks such as those afflicting raw materials and manufacturing industries in many EMs, and market volatility — all factors exacerbated by the turmoil in China.

The IIF’s most recent survey of bank lending conditions in emerging markets showed a steep deterioration in the third quarter of last year — when China’s stocks and currency both fell sharply — to the worst level since 2011.

Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford Economics, a research company, says that rising debts, falling profits and tighter credit conditions have raised the danger of nasty surprises.

“The trouble with EM companies, apart from there having been a lot of debt issuance, is that we don’t know much about their creditworthiness,” he says. “Hidden areas of risk suddenly emerging is a recipe for bad outcomes and contagion. This is one of our key concerns for 2016.”

EM exporters have been hit especially hard by a global fall in commodity prices linked to China’s slowing economy over the past two years.

Mr Slater says there is good reason to expect Chinese stocks to continue to fall in price.

“Last year’s sell-off began from very heavily overvalued levels,” he argues. “On the way down, government intervention stalled and even reversed the fall, but there was always an amount of suppressed selling. So it’s not surprising the sell-off has continued.”

Indeed, measured by the commonly used ratio of price to projected earnings, shares in China are still expensive. They have traditionally traded at valuations close to those of shares in Hong Kong. But in China’s hyper-rally last year the two lost contact; even after last week’s falls they are still far apart.

If shares do fall further, will that add to pressure on the renminbi? There is no direct link between Chinese share prices and exchange rates, as foreign participation in China’s stock markets is limited. But it appears that Chinese individuals and companies are selling renminbi-denominated assets and buying dollar-denominated ones.

“It is not always clear who is doing it,” says Mr Bakkum, “but people are less comfortable with renminbi assets as the valuations are not right.”

Even without downward pressure from stocks, the renminbi seems set on a path to more depreciation against the dollar. Since the government loosened its grip on the currency last August, the previous pattern of slow, measured movements has changed. Last week, even the tightly controlled onshore exchange rate experienced dollar losses during daily trading of well over 1 per cent.

On the less controlled offshore market, losses have been sharper still, suggesting investors believe the onshore rate will fall further, too.

If so, says Mr Bakkum, it will weigh heavily on risk appetite for EM assets. “A relatively stable renminbi was an anchor for other EM currencies,” he says.

China is not the only source of danger to emerging markets this year. Mr Bakkum mentions deepening political crises in Brazil, South Africa, Turkey and the Middle East.

“All those are still there,” he says. “As China becomes more of a risk, it doesn’t look good for the next few months.”

上周中国股市和汇市的动荡波及全球后，分析师警告称，新兴市场国家的政策制定者应准备好面对增长方面的又一轮挑战。

NN投资伙伴(NN Investment Partners)资深新兴市场策略师马尔滕-扬?巴库姆(Maarten-Jan Bakkum)表示：“今年以中国市场动荡和对中国整体政策的更多疑虑开局，这为新兴市场带来了更大压力。”

其中，最直接的威胁来自人民币急剧而出人意料的贬值：上周，人民币兑美元汇率下跌了1.3%。

而中国在全球贸易中所扮演的角色则意味着，疲软的人民币为其他新兴市场货币也带来了贬值压力。

这可能会对新兴市场出口国有帮助，原因是疲软的本币会令他们的商品更有竞争力。然而，考虑到以贬值后的本币支付外币债务非常困难，这一好处可以忽略不计。

在美国采取超宽松货币政策的年代里，新兴市场的许多公司借了尽可能多的廉价外币债务。如今，美国的货币政策已经逆转。

根据产业协会国际金融研究所（Institute of International Finance，简称IIF）用国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)的数据计算得出的结果，在截至2015年年中的十年里，新兴市场企业的外币债务从9000亿美元增至4.4万亿美元。



然而，分析师表示，可能存在一个严重得多的问题，就是这十年里新兴市场积累的本币债务还要更多。IIF的数据显示，这十年里新兴市场外币和本币债务以美元计的总额，已从5.4万亿美元上升至24.4万亿美元，与新兴市场总国内生产总值(GDP)之比为90%。

这些债务也容易受到人民币下跌的冲击，这部分是由于在本国货币贬值之际，新兴市场国家的银行更难从境外筹集资金，这减弱了它们为企业贷款“展期”的能力。

此外，国内银行放贷还受到经济增长疲软、与特定产业有关的风险（许多新兴市场国家的原材料行业和制造业就受到这些风险的困扰）以及市场波动的影响，而中国的动荡则加剧了上述所有情况。

IIF对新兴市场银行放贷状况的最近一次调查显示，去年第三季度（当时中国股市和人民币都出现了急剧下跌）放贷状况急剧恶化到了2011年以来的最差水平。



研究公司牛津经济(Oxford Economics)首席经济学家亚当?斯莱特(Adam Slater)表示，不断攀升的债务、不断下跌的利润以及信贷状况收紧，加大了突然爆发恶性危机的危险。

他说：“除了发售了大量债券，新兴市场企业还有个麻烦是，我们不太清楚他们的信誉如何。隐藏风险突然暴露出来，必然会导致糟糕的结局和传染效应。这是我们对2016年的主要担忧之一。”

过去两年，与中国经济不断放缓有关的全球大宗商品价格下跌，对新兴市场出口国造成了尤为沉重的打击。

斯莱特表示，有充分的理由预计，中国股价会继续下跌。



他声称：“去年股票抛售行为开始时，股价处于严重高估的水平。而在股价下行过程时，政府的干预举措阻碍甚至逆转了这轮下跌。然而，被抑制的抛售需求总是存在的。因此，人们继续抛售股票毫不奇怪。”

事实上，以常用的市盈率标准衡量，A股仍然十分昂贵。过去，A股的市盈率往往接近港股。然而，在去年A股的超级牛市中，两者脱节了，即使是经历了上周的下跌后，两者仍存在巨大差距。

如果A股进一步下跌，会不会加大人民币面临的压力？由于境外对A股的参与程度有限，A股的股价与外汇汇率之间并不存在直接联系。不过，似乎中国的个人和企业正在抛售以人民币计价的资产，买入以美元计价的资产。

巴库姆表示：“谁在这么做并不总是很清楚。不过，由于人民币资产的估值不处于正确的水平上，人们对人民币资产没那么放心了。”



即使没有来自股市的下行压力，人民币似乎也将要对美元进一步贬值。自去年8月中国政府放松对人民币汇率的控制以来，之前人民币汇率缓慢而慎重的变动模式已经改变。上周，即使是受到严密控制的在岸人民币兑美元汇率，也出现了大大超过1%的盘中跌幅。

在控制不那么紧的离岸市场，人民币兑美元汇率跌幅更加剧烈，显示投资者相信在岸市场的汇率也会进一步下跌。

巴库姆表示，一旦这种情况发生，它将极大地打消人们冒险投资新兴市场资产的欲望。他说：“相对稳定的人民币汇率曾经起到稳定其他新兴市场货币的作用。”

中国不是今年新兴市场唯一的风险源。巴库姆指出，巴西、南非、土耳其和中东不断加剧的政治危机也带来风险。

“所有这些风险依然存在。”他说，“由于中国日益构成切实风险，今后几个月的前景看来不太妙。”

译者/何黎