【英语财经】中国减速如何影响全球经济？ What the Middle Kingdom’s agonies mean for rest of the world

If the past six months’ economic news has taught the world one thing, it is that a bump in China’s economy cannot be ignored. The question is whether the rest of the world feels a ripple or a tsunami.

Now the world’s largest economy, measured by the quantity of goods and services produced, the IMF expects China to account for almost 18 per cent of world economic activity in 2016. This implies that the drop in its growth rate from an expansion of more than 10 per cent in 2010 to 6.3 per cent expected this year has directly knocked about 0.75 percentage points off the global growth rate.

The spillover effects are broader than this direct calculation of China’s importance. Maury Obstfeld, the IMF chief economist, has said he is most worried about these knock-on effects in 2016. “The global spillovers from China’s reduced rate of growth?.?.?.?have been much larger than we would have anticipated,” he said this week.

China affects the global economy via:

1. Trade and exchange rates

Although China’s import volumes are still growing, a weaker than expected economy cuts the export growth of countries that are dependent on Chinese demand for oil, metals, materials and machine tools.

Neighbours with integrated supply chains such as Japan and South Korea are deeply affected, Germany is most at risk in Europe as a producer of capital goods to China, and commodity specialists such as Australia also stand in the line of fire. But direct trade effects are rarely an immediate game-changer and as the world’s largest net exporter, China is more dependent on the world economy than vice versa.

One way to amplify the trade effects would be through a massive depreciation of the renminbi to try to revive Chinese export-led growth. The renminbi has dropped 6 per cent against the US dollar since July, spreading fears of a currency war, but against its wider trading partners, China’s exchange rate appreciated marginally in 2015. A currency war still seems some distance away.

2 Oil and commodities

Worries about China’s economic strength is part of the reason for the renewed drop in oil prices, dragging Brent crude down to a fresh 11 year low — below $33 a barrel yesterday. Weakness in oil and other commodity prices has pushed Russia and Brazil into recessions and hit the finances of Gulf states.

Global investment in oil extraction has slumped, undermining parts of the US economy and sectors in other countries hosting capital goods makers. But low oil and commodity prices mostly redistribute economic prospects round the world rather than diminish them. Oil producers lose, but consumers, including in those in China, gain from the equivalent of a tax cut. The IMF still thinks the net effect of lower comm-odity prices is positive. At worst, it dam-ps the more serious effects of lower than expected China demand growth.

3 Inflation and monetary policy

Whether it is a weaker renminbi making China goods more affordable, lower commodity prices or reduced demand in the world economy, a China slowdown weakens inflation pressures, triggering fears of a global deflationary spiral and debt defaults. But low inflation gives policymakers leeway to keep monetary policy looser for longer in the US and UK and add to quantitative easing in Europe if advanced economies appear to suffer from flatlining prices. Fears of a downward spiral are exaggerated. Many of these lower prices raise the prosperity of consumers globally and should boost demand elsewhere, offsetting Chinese deflationary forces.

4 Confidence

While all the other effects of China on the global economy are reasonably predictable and potentially have offsetting benefits, the effect of weaker confidence has the greatest potential to shock.

Whether it is through global financial market turmoil, the willingness of companies to invest or the desire of households to tighten their belts, confidence in the security of the global economy is both vital for prosperity and almost entirely unpredictable.

At best confidence can return quickly without much effect on the global economic outlook, as it did after last summer’s turmoil in markets also centred on China. But as 2008 taught everyone, once confidence disappears, the effect on the global economy can be large — bringing down companies, banks, markets and the financial system. No wonder experts such as Andy Haldane, Bank of England chief economist, talk about emerging markets as potentially being the third leg of the global financial crisis.

The wider effect of China’s fresh troubles will depend on whether people and companies wait before taking a decision to spend and invest — or carry on.

如果过去6个月的经济新闻告诉世界一件事的话，那就是不能忽视中国经济的颠簸。问题是全球其他地区感觉到的是一丝波澜还是一场海啸。

国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计，如今这个全球最大经济体（根据产品和服务产出量计算）明年将占到全球经济活动的近18%。这意味着中国经济增速从2010年逾10%降至今年预测的6.3%，已直接将全球增速抹去约0.75个百分点。

而其溢出效应的范围还要超过对中国重要性的这种直接计算。IMF首席经济学家莫里?奥布斯特费尔德(Maury Obstfeld)表示，他最担心的是2016年出现连锁反应。他上周表示：“中国经济增速下滑导致的全球溢出效应……远远超出我们的预期。”

中国对全球经济的影响是通过下列途径实现的：

贸易和汇率

尽管中国的进口额仍在增长，但逊于预期的中国经济将降低那些依赖中国对石油、金属、原材料和机械设备需求的国家的出口增速。

日本和韩国等有着一体化供应链的邻国将受到严重影响，在欧洲，作为向中国出口资本品的生产国，德国面临的风险最大，澳大利亚等大宗商品出口国也命悬一线。但直接的贸易影响很少会立即扭转局势，作为全球最大净出口国，中国更依赖全球经济，而不是相反。



放大贸易影响的一种途径是通过人民币大规模贬值，以恢复中国以出口为导向的增长。自今年7月以来，人民币对美元已贬值6%，导致汇率大战的担忧蔓延，但相对于中国更广泛的贸易伙伴国的货币，去年人民币汇率微幅上涨。汇率大战似乎仍有些遥远。

石油和大宗商品

对于中国经济实力的担忧是油价再度下跌的原因之一，布伦特(Brent)原油价格跌至11年新低，上周四跌破每桶33美元。石油和其他大宗商品价格下跌令俄罗斯和巴西陷入衰退，并打击了海湾国家的财政状况。



全球石油开采投资滑坡，这损害了美国的部分经济领域以及其他资本品生产国的一些行业。石油和大宗商品价格处于低位主要是会重新调整全球经济前景布局，而不是削弱经济前景。产油国受损，但消费者（包括中国消费者在内）从相当于减税的价格下跌中获益。IMF仍认为，大宗商品价格下跌的净效应是正面的。即使是最坏的情况下，它也将减弱中国需求增速低于预期造成的更严重影响。

通胀和货币政策



不管是人民币贬值让中国产品更廉价、大宗商品价格下跌还是全球经济中需求下滑，中国经济放缓都将削弱通胀压力，引发对全球通缩螺旋和债务违约的担忧。但低通胀赋予了政策制定者回旋余地，假如发达经济体看上去因价格下跌而出现困难，他们就可以让英美更为宽松的货币政策保持更长时间，并在欧洲加大量化宽松。下行螺旋担忧被夸大。很多价格下跌提升了全球消费者的富裕程度，应会扩大其他地区的需求，从而抵消中国通缩压力影响。

信心

尽管中国对全球经济的其他所有影响都是能够合理预测的，而且可能有着抵消不利因素的好处，但信心减弱的影响最有可能带来冲击。



不管信心变化是通过全球金融市场动荡、企业投资意愿还是家庭压缩开支的愿望体现，对全球经济安全的信心对于繁荣至关重要，但也几乎完全不可预测。

最好的情况是，信心能够在不对全球经济前景造成巨大影响的情况下迅速回归，就像去年夏季市场发生同样以中国为中心的动荡之后一样。但就像2008年带给所有人的教训一样，一旦信心丧失，对全球经济的影响可能是巨大的：它将把企业、银行、市场和金融体系拖下水。难怪英国央行(Bank of England)首席经济学家安迪?霍尔丹(Andy Haldane)等人认为新兴市场危机可能是全球金融危机的第三阶段。

中国最新困境的更广泛影响，将取决于人们和企业是会在做出支出和投资决定前等待观望，还是继续支出和投资。

译者/梁艳裳