【英语财经】中国应向世界经济传递信心 Leader_China should lift demand to restore market calm

China’s stock and currency market turmoil is once again sending financial shockwaves around the world. Equities slumped throughout Asia, in Europe and the US following Chinese share price plunges that prompted a second trading suspension this week. Indicating the widespread concerns, George Osborne, the UK chancellor, named China as part of a “dangerous cocktail of new threats” to global prosperity.

The angst radiating from the world’s second-largest economy is in some ways an echo of last summer’s rout. Investors worried then that a stock market slump and a devaluation of the renminbi betrayed deeper faultlines in the Chinese economy than were apparent to outsiders. The same is true today. Massive net capital outflows, which hit a record of $221bn in the third quarter of last year, appear likely to have accelerated in the fourth quarter. The rush by Chinese companies and individuals to take their money overseas is depressing both domestic stock prices and the renminbi.

Some observers attribute the currency’s slide to a four-year low against the US dollar yesterday as motivated by an intent in Beijing to pursue competitive devaluations on behalf of its struggling exporters. However, it seems unlikely that the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is intentionally stoking a “currency war”. Last month alone, it sold some $113bn of its foreign exchange reserves to stabilise its depreciating currency, according to estimates by Capital Economics, a research firm.

The real narrative behind China’s financial market ructions is likely to be less Machiavellian and more dismal. Confidence in China’s economic resilience is ebbing as almost all of the economy’s key drivers lose momentum, while Beijing’s policy response appears both convoluted and contradictory. Growth in fixed asset investments, the main engine of prosperity over the past three decades, is stalling as company profits dwindle. Overcapacity in heavy industries and a highly-leveraged property sector remains chronic, creating a deep deflationary undertow.

But Beijing’s response to these structural problems, set out following a key Communist Party meeting in December, may fall short of propelling GDP growth toward what Xi Jinping, president, said recently would be a minimum growth level of 6.5 per cent. The main goals of December’s Central Economic Work Conference were to reduce excess production capacity, work off unsold inventory in the property market and reduce the operating costs of companies. While such reforms — as well as the strenuous ongoing anti-corruption campaign — are crucial to China’s longer term economic health, they do not pack much of an expansionary punch.

The world’s recovery from the crisis remains as fragile as ever, particularly because growth in emerging markets is at a post-crisis low. If Chinese demand falters, the commodity-oriented economies of Latin America, Africa and Asia could fall further into distress. Beijing should use its presidency this year of the G20 group of developed and developing nations to show that it is equal to a global leadership role.

China should shift the focus of its economic policies to elevate the boosting of demand by fiscal and monetary means above its structural reform agenda. In this way, it may attempt to slow the torrent of capital that is fleeing its borders, stabilise the renminbi and even create a more conducive environment for the domestic stock market. As a first step toward such goals, the government should communicate such policies clearly to the international investor community.

中国的股市和汇市动荡再一次向世界各地发出金融冲击波。中国股市大幅下跌本周第二次触发熔断机制后，亚洲、欧洲和美国股市全线下挫。突显普遍担忧的一个迹象是，英国财相乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)把中国列为危及全球繁荣的“各种新威胁的危险鸡尾酒”的一部分。

从全球第二大经济体传递出的焦虑感，在某些方面像是去年夏天股市暴跌的回声。那时投资者担心，股市暴跌和人民币贬值暴露了中国经济更深层的断层线，而这些断层线本来是外人不容易看见的。这个道理现在同样适用。大规模资本净流出（去年第三季度达到创纪录的2210亿美元），似乎很可能在第四季度有所加快。中国企业和个人急于把资金转移到境外，正在压低国内股市和人民币汇率。

一些观察者把人民币兑美元汇率昨日跌至四年低点归因于北京方面有意进行竞争性货币贬值，以求帮助苦苦挣扎中的中国出口企业。然而，中国人民银行(PBoC)似乎不太可能刻意引燃一场“汇率战争”。根据研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)的估算，仅在上月，中国央行为了让不断走低的人民币企稳，就出售了大约1130亿美元的外汇储备。

中国金融市场震荡背后的真正故事与其说是处心积虑的，不如说是令人沮丧的。随着中国经济的几乎所有关键驱动因素都失去冲劲，而北京方面的政策回应似乎既令人费解又相互矛盾，人们对中国经济强韧性的信心正在减弱。随着企业利润减少，固定资产投资（过去30年繁荣的主要引擎）增长正在减速。重工业和杠杆率较高的房地产行业的产能过剩积重难返，形成一股深层的通缩暗流。

但是，北京方面在12月中央经济工作会议后阐明的针对这些结构性问题的回应，可能不足以推动国内生产总值(GDP)增长达到国家主席习近平最近所称的6.5%这一最低增长水平。那次会议提出的主要目标是化解过剩产能，消化房地产库存，以及降低企业经营成本。尽管这些改革——以及正在大力推进的反腐败运动——对于中国的较长期经济健康是至关重要的，但它们在推动经济扩张方面力度不够。

自金融危机爆发以来，世界的复苏眼下正处于最为脆弱的节骨眼，尤其是因为新兴市场的经济增长纷纷降至危机后的低点。如果中国的需求不能保持，以大宗商品为导向的拉美、非洲和亚洲经济体可能进一步陷入困境。北京方面应该利用今年中国担任由发达国家和发展中国家组成的20国集团(G20)轮值主席国的机会，展示自己能够担当全球领导角色。

中国应当转变其经济政策的重点，把借助财政和货币政策手段提振需求置于结构性改革议程之上。这意味着中国可能试图减缓流向境外的资本洪流，稳住人民币汇率，甚至为国内股市营造一个更为利好的环境。作为迈向这些目标的第一步，政府应该向国际投资界更清晰地传达此类政策。

译者/和风

人民币贬值拖累美国股指【英文原声】