【英语财经】为新兴经济体改革“量体温” Politics trumps reform in emerging markets

Reform is a pressing need across emerging markets, especially as global demand remains weak and rising US interest rates threaten to increase funding costs. For countries to revive growth, they will need to create a more favourable environment for business. Politicians in many countries acknowledge this and have put structural economic reforms at the heart of their governing agenda.

But everywhere the outlook for reform is heavily dependent on political leadership and the larger political economy: where leadership and popular support for reform is strong – as in India – the outlook is positive; but where politicians are more interested in power than leadership – such as in Turkey and South Africa – the prospects for positive change are dim.

In India, Mexico and Indonesia, charismatic leaders all came to power promising ambitious reforms. In all three countries, ambitions have run up against political realities as leaders discover that implementing change is more difficult than campaigning for it. In some areas, reforms have had to be abandoned, as in the case of land reform in India and fuel subsidies in Indonesia. Nevertheless, the leaders of all three countries are still pressing forward with parts of their agenda, and the outlook for reform is still, on the whole, positive.

The biggest disappointment is China – the world’s second-largest economy – where it has become increasingly apparent that Xi Jinping’s focus on buttressing Communist Party control is hindering progress on key structural reforms. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign has strengthened extra-legal Party disciplinary mechanisms, undermining the rule of law. And his centralisation of policymaking has resulted in a state-dominated approach to economic management that is hindering the reforms necessary to rebalance and upgrade the economy. Market-oriented reforms are not entirely off the table, but the overall outlook has deteriorated – and our reform rating along with it.

Brazil, the world’s second-largest emerging economy, continues to be caught up in political turmoil. Governance has ground to a halt as President Dilma Rousseff faces impeachment proceedings; her administration is now focusing all of its energies on retaining power. Until the current crisis abates there are unlikely to be any important changes, though the ongoing corruption investigation could help to create more transparent institutions in the medium term.

Among the eight countries in our Reform Barometer, Turkey and South Africa rate lowest. Both countries are led by leaders more interested in preserving power than making policy. In Turkey, recent President Erdogan is singularly focused on gaining support for a constitutional amendment that would enhance his position. In South Africa, President Zuma’s decision to dismiss finance minister Nhlanhla Nene – a competent and credible policymaker – was another political move to ensure the loyalty of the members of the cabinet while creating opportunities for his faithful supporters to conclude shady deals. Zuma was forced to backtrack on his appointment of the untested David van Rooyen (eventually reappointing former finance minister Pravin Gordhan to the post) but as long as Zuma retains the presidency, there is little reason to expect positive change in South Africa.

Argentina represents a potential bright spot among the EM reform stories. The November elections ended the toxic presidency of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Her successor, Mauricio Macri, has promised to institute reforms that could help put the economy on a more sound footing. His task will not be easy, but the possibility of change is an important development; for this reason, we have included Argentina in our Reform Barometer for the first tim

Headline developments over the past three months

? China: Political control takes precedence over economic reforms, although there is some limited progress at the margins

? Brazil: Lava Jato continues to get closer to the political establishment and the economy continues to sink into depression

? India: State-election setbacks increase pressure on government for economic reform

? Mexico: President Enrique Pe?a Nieto presses forward on energy, education and wage reforms, but deepening unpopularity limits his effectiveness

? Indonesia: One year into the Jokowi presidency, there are no key measures to enhance the business climate, despite the government’s passage of seven reform packages

? Turkey: Since Erdogan’s priority is on changing the constitution to increase presidential power, economic reforms are off the agenda for now

? Argentina: New reform-minded president faces obstacle-strewn path

? South Africa: Dismissal of Finance Minister Nene offers further proof that President Zuma is not interested in implementing structural reforms despite him being forced to back-track with appointment of Pravin Gordon to the post.

Trey McArver is senior analyst at Trusted Sources. He was assisted in compiling this post by the company’s country managers.

This is the latest in a series of reports taking the temperature of reform in emerging economies by Trusted Sources, an emerging market research service.

改革在整个新兴市场是一件刻不容缓的事情，特别是在全球需求仍然疲软、美国加息可能造成融资成本上升的情况下。各国如果要重振增长，就需要营造一个更为亲商的环境。很多国家的政治人士承认这一点，他们已经把结构性经济改革放在治理议程的核心位置。

但是，各国的改革前景都严重依赖于政治领导和整个政治经济体制：在领导层和公众对改革的支持比较强大的国家——比如印度——改革前景乐观；但是在政客对权力比对领导更感兴趣的国家——比如土耳其和南非——出现积极改变的前景黯淡。

在印度、墨西哥和印度尼西亚，有魅力的领导人在上台时均承诺推行雄心勃勃的改革。在这3个国家，改革的雄心都遭遇了不利的政治现实，领导人发现推行改革比在竞选时承诺改革更加困难。在一些领域，政府不得不放弃改革，比如印度的土地改革和印尼的燃油补贴。话虽如此，这三个国家仍然在推进部分改革议程，总体上说，改革前景依然是积极的。

最令人失望的是作为全球第二大经济体的中国：日益明显的是，习近平对于加强共产党控制的注重，阻碍着关键的结构性改革的进程。习近平发起的反腐运动加强了司法体系以外的党内纪律体制，削弱了法治。他对政策制定的高度集权带来了国家主导的经济管理方式，阻碍着经济再调整和经济升级所必需的各项改革。中国并未彻底放弃以市场为导向的改革，但是整体前景已经恶化——我们对中国的改革评分也随之下降。

身为全球第二大新兴经济体的巴西继续受困于政治动荡。巴西总统迪尔玛?罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)面临弹劾程序，国家治理陷入停滞；她领导的政府正聚焦于保住权位。在当前的危机缓和之前，巴西不太可能落实任何重要改革，尽管当前正在展开的腐败调查可能有助于在中期带来透明度更高的制度。

在我们的改革晴雨表所考察的8个国家中，土耳其和南非的评分最低。这两个国家的领导人对掌控权力的兴趣均高于制定政策。在土耳其，从总理转任总统的雷杰普?塔伊普?埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)一心一意为一项宪法修正案争取支持，目的是巩固自己的权位。而南非总统雅各布?祖马(Jacob Zuma)决定将财政部长、称职和可信的政策制定者恩拉恩拉?内内(Nhlanhla Nene)撤职，是又一个政治举动，目的是确保其内阁成员的忠诚度，并且为自己的亲信制造一个达成黑幕交易的机会。祖马被迫放弃任命未经考验的大卫?范?罗音(David van Rooyen)（最后再次启用前财长普拉温?戈登(Pravin Gordhan)接任），但是只要祖马仍然是南非总统，就没有什么理由期待南非出现积极变化。

在新兴市场改革故事中，阿根廷代表着一个潜在亮点。2015年11月的大选终结了克里斯蒂娜?费尔南德斯?基什内尔(Cristina Fernández de Kirchner)成事不足败事有余的总统任期。她的继任者毛里西奥?马克里(Mauricio Macri)承诺推行有望夯实经济基础的改革。他的任务并不轻松，但是改革的可能性本身是一个重要动态。出于这个原因，我们首次把阿根廷纳入改革晴雨表。



过去三个月各大新兴市场的改革动向：

? 中国：政治控制比经济改革更优先，尽管在边缘领域取得了一些有限的进展

? 巴西：“洗车行动”（Lava Jato，由巴西联邦警察发起的针对巴西国家石油公司的反腐败调查——译者注）继续逼近政治体制，该国经济继续陷入萧条

? 印度：邦选举受挫给政府带来更大压力，要求其推行经济改革

? 墨西哥：总统恩里克?培尼亚?涅托(Enrique Pe?a Nieto)继续推进能源、教育和工资方面的改革，但是不断走低的支持率限制了他的有效性

? 印度尼西亚：佐科维(Jokowi)上台已有一年，至今没有实行改善商业环境的关键措施，尽管政府通过了7项改革方案

? 土耳其：由于埃尔多安优先考虑的是修改宪法以扩大总统权力，经济改革目前不在议程上

? 阿根廷：有意改革的新总统面临着布满荆棘的道路

? 南非：财政部长内内被撤职进一步证明总统祖马的兴趣不在于推行结构性改革，尽管他被迫重新启用普拉温?戈登担任财长

罗杰(Trey McArver)是新兴市场研究服务公司Trusted Sources的高级分析师。他在该公司几位国别经理的协助下撰写了本文。

这是Trusted Sources为新兴经济体改革“量体温”系列报道的最新一篇。

译者/马柯斯