【英语财经】人民币走低加剧市场对中国经济忧虑 Weakening of renminbi raises alarm over economy

The pace of China’s falling currency, now at its lowest level in nearly five years, has raised the prospect of renewed intervention by the central bank as Beijing seeks to control its fragile exchange rate policy.

The sharp decline in the renminbi has put investors on notice that the Chinese economy, a key engine of global growth, may be slowing at a faster rate than previously forecast.

Investors are worried that an unexpectedly fast depreciation will further destabilise China’s economy. Some also fear it could trigger a wave of competitive devaluations across the region.

“During our investor meetings in December, the most significant risk that investors were worried about was a substantial devaluation of the renminbi,” said Timothy Moe, Goldman Sachs’ chief Asia-Pacific equity strategist.

Traders are selling the renminbi in the open market, and this week’s drop of 2 per cent has intensified pressure on other emerging market currencies, particularly in Asia. It has also spurred selling of US and European stocks.

The People’s Bank of China believes its overvalued currency is hurting its competitiveness and is trying to boost its slowing economy via a weaker currency. The central bank set weaker trading bands for the currency, but it is mindful of avoiding a repeat of the global market turmoil that was triggered in August when the renminbi weakened sharply.

China won reserve currency status in late November from the IMF. The widening gap between the onshore and offshore rates suggests, however, the renminbi is in fact not “freely usable” as the IMF requires.

Traders outside China are pricing in further weakness for the currency, testing the resolve of the central bank and its desire for an orderly depreciation.

Commerzbank’s emerging market strategist Peter Kinsella said this week’s renminbi weakness had been anything but orderly and could force the central bank to intervene. “Let’s be blunt: the central bank can intervene very aggressively if and when they choose,” he said.

Signs of the PBoC seeking to reassert control emerged after foreign banks were last month suspended from trading foreign exchange in China.

Several of the biggest foreign banks in the renminbi market had been suspended, people familiar with the situation said. They said this appeared to be an attempt by Beijing to close the gap that has widened between the price of onshore and offshore rates to a new low.

China wanted to stop banks arbitraging the spread between the two markets for its currency, one of the people said.

The renminbi fell 0.5 per cent yesterday, its lowest level since March 2011 .

已经处于近五年最低位的人民币汇率走低的速度，引发了中国央行再度干预的前景。目前北京方面正寻求控制其脆弱的汇率政策。

人民币近日的大幅下跌使投资者意识到，身为全球增长重要引擎的中国经济，可能正以高于预测的速度放缓。

投资者担心，人民币若发生意外快速的贬值，将进一步破坏中国经济的稳定。还有人担心，这可能在整个地区引发一波竞争性贬值。

“在12月举行的投资者会议期间，投资者担心的最重大风险就是人民币大幅贬值，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)亚太区首席股票策略师慕天辉(Timothy Moe)表示。

交易员正在公开市场上出售人民币，而本周人民币贬值2%加大了其他新兴市场货币所受的压力，特别是在亚洲。这也加剧了美国和欧洲股市的抛售。

中国人民银行(PBoC)认为人民币估值过高，损害了中国的竞争力，这家央行正试图通过货币贬值来提振中国不断放缓的经济。中国央行为人民币设定了较弱的交易区间，但它注意避免重演去年8月的情形，当时人民币大幅走软，引发了全球市场动荡。

中国在去年11月下旬从国际货币基金组织(IMF)争取到储备货币地位。不过，在岸和离岸汇率之间不断扩大的差距似乎表明，人民币其实达不到“可自由使用”的IMF要求。

中国境外的交易员正在价格上计入人民币将进一步走低，考验央行的决心及其对于有序贬值的愿望。

德国商业银行(Commerzbank)新兴市场策略师彼得?金塞拉(Peter Kinsella)表示，本周人民币的弱势绝非有序，可能迫使中国央行出手干预。“说白了：中国央行可以在它选择的时机进行规模很大的干预，”他表示。

中国央行寻求重新确立控制的迹象包括，上月在华外资银行被暂停外汇交易资格。

知情人士透露，人民币市场上几家最大的外资银行已被暂停资格。他们表示，这似乎是北京方面缩小在岸和离岸汇率差距的企图，这个差距近期扩大。

其中一人表示，中国官方希望阻止银行利用人民币在岸和离岸汇率之间的价差进行套利。

人民币昨日下跌0.5%，至2011年3月以来的最低水平。

译者/和风