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2016-1-5 19:46
China’s central bank has just weakened the renminbi for a fifth straight session, adding further pressure for the currency to weaken against the strengthening US dollar.
For the first time since May 2011, the People’s Bank of China has set the daily “fix” for the renminbi “above” 6.5 per dollar. The fix was softened by 0.15 per cent to 6.5032 per dollar. China allowed its tightly controlled currency to fall 4.64 per cent against the US dollar last year, after a 2.51 per cent decline in 2014. While it’s tempting to say China “pushed” the currency lower by softening the daily fixes, the reality is that the PBoC has been spending billions of dollars worth of foreign exchange exchange reserves to prop the currency up, as the economy slows and Chinese people and companies exchange renminbi for other currencies. Last month, the PBoC cleared the way for further – albeit slow – depreciation, by unveiling a new basket of currencies to for the renminbi to be valued against. The point is to show the renminbi is relatively stable against global peers, even if it’s weakening against the US dollar as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates. The move is sensible, given how much the US dollar has already appreciated. But it could also inflame concerns of a “currency war” in the region. 中国人民银行(PBoC)连续第五个交易日削弱人民币汇率,在美元走强背景下进一步为人民币贬值施加压力。
这是中国央行自2011年5月以来第一次将每日人民币汇率“设置”在6.5美元“之上”。这一汇率设置令人民币兑美元汇率下降0.15个百分点,至6.5032。 中国对人民币控制严格,2015年中国允许人民币兑美元汇率下跌4.64个百分点,前一年跌幅为2.51%。虽然这很容易让人认为中国通过降低每日汇率设置“推动”人民币贬值,但实际情况是随着中国经济增长放缓、中国的企业和普通民众将人民币换成其他货币,中国央行已经投入了数十亿美元外汇储备支撑本币上升。 上个月,中国央行公布人民币汇率将开始参考新的一篮子货币,为人民币进一步贬值——虽然速度缓慢——扫清了障碍。此事关键在于显示了人民币对全球其他货币相对稳定,即使因美联储(Fed)加息导致人民币兑美元汇率下跌。 鉴于美元已经升值的幅度,中国央行的这一举措是明智的,但也可能加剧地区“汇率战争”的担忧。 译者/何黎 |