【英语财经】预计2015年俄罗斯经济萎缩3.7% Rouble plunges as latest oil decline ushers in second year of recession

The rouble fell to its lowest level in more than a year yesterday as Russians faced the prospect of a second year of economic recession in 2016 amid continued oil price weakness.

The Russian economy is expected to contract 3.7 per cent this year, hit by falling oil prices and western sanctions, despite official suggestions previously that the situation was stabilising with President Vladimir Putin saying the “peak of the crisis” had passed.

The latest decline in the oil price has tempered those optimistic expectations and senior figures in the Russian political and business elite warned this week that the country should brace itself for another year of recession in 2016.

Benchmark Brent crude oil fell more than 3 per cent to $36.64 a barrel yesterday as Saudi Arabia reiterated it would not cut production in response to lower oil prices after announcing a radical austerity programme this week.

That helped push the rouble to more than 73 to the dollar — its weakest level on record apart from a brief rout last December that threatened a run on the Russian banking system. By early evening in Moscow, the rouble was trading 1.2 per cent weaker, at Rbs73.1570 per dollar, down 26 per cent since the start of the year.

“2016 will not be easier than 2015, and it could be more challenging,” Alisher Usmanov, one of the country’s wealthiest oligarchs, said this week.

Alexei Ulyukayev, economy minister, said that Russia should prepare for oil prices to remain low “for years”.

Russian government data showed that the economy contracted month-on-month in November for the first time in five months.

“It all depends on oil, oil and again on oil,” said Oleg Kouzmin, economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow. “This current crisis has no concrete bottom.”

The recent weakness in the economy is hitting ordinary Russians particularly hard, analysts say.

Government data published this week showed that real wages were down

9.2 per cent year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2015, the first such fall since the economic turmoil of the late-1990s.

According to state-owned pollster VTsIOM, 39 per cent of Russian households cannot afford to buy either sufficient food or clothing.

Oil prices touched 11-year lows this month. Oil and gas account for half of Russian government revenues.

卢布昨日跌至1年多以来最低水平。随着油价持续低迷，俄罗斯面临在2016年遭遇第二个经济衰退之年的前景。

尽管此前官方暗示局势正在企稳，总统弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)表示“危机最严重的时期”已经过去，但在油价下跌和西方制裁的打击下，预计2015年俄罗斯经济将萎缩3.7%。

最近一轮油价下跌给上述乐观预期泼了冷水，俄罗斯政界和商界精英中的高层人士本周警告称，俄罗斯应该为2016年依然遭遇经济衰退做好准备。

本周沙特阿拉伯宣布了一项激进的财政紧缩计划，重申不会因为油价降低而减产，昨日基准的布伦特原油价格下跌逾3%，至每桶36.64美元。



这推动卢布跌破1美元兑73卢布水平，除了2014年12月险些造成俄罗斯银行体系遭遇挤兑的一段短暂暴跌以外，这是卢布有史以来的最低水平。到莫斯科傍晚时间，卢布汇率下跌了1.2%，至1美元兑73.1570卢布，比2015年初下跌了26%。

“2016年不会比2015年轻松，可能还更具挑战性，”俄罗斯最富有的寡头之一阿利舍尔?乌斯马诺夫(Alisher Usmanov)本周表示。

俄罗斯经济部长阿列克谢?乌卢卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)表示，俄罗斯应该为石油价格“多年”保持低位做准备。



俄罗斯政府数据表明，俄罗斯经济11月环比出现萎缩，这是5个月以来的第一次。

“这全都取决于石油、石油，还是石油，”莫斯科晋新资本(Renaissance Capital)经济学家奥列格?柯兹敏(Oleg Kouzmin)表示，“当前这场危机没有确定的底部。”

分析人士称，近期的经济疲弱对俄罗斯普通人的打击尤为严重。

本周发布的政府数据表明，在2015年头11个月期间，实际工资同比下降了9.2%，这是自上世纪90年代末的经济动荡以来首次出现这样的下降。



根据俄罗斯国有民调机构VTsIOM的数据，39%的俄罗斯家庭买不起足够的食物或者衣物。

本月油价触及11年低位。石油和天然气占俄罗斯政府财政收入的一半。

译者/许雯佳