【英语财经】复星的欧洲收购计划面临不确定性 Fosun’s European deals thrown into doubt

The chairman of China’s Fosun Group returned to the office this week to find his four-day disappearance has created an uncertain outlook for his planned European acquisitions.

Guo Guangchang, who went incommunicado while assisting Shanghai authorities in an unspecified investigation, is poised to complete a ￠210m purchase of Frankfurt-based Hauck & Aufh?user. But the deal to buy the private bank that was established in the 18th century is awaiting approval from Germany’s financial regulator and the European Central Bank.

In a separate bidding war for BHF Kleinwort Benson, the London merchant bank, Fosun is likely to lose out to Oddo & Cie, the French private bank. Mr Guo is China’s 17th-richest person with a $7.8bn fortune, according to the Hurun Report.

But along with Chinese tech billionaires such as Jack Ma, Alibaba’s founder, he looms larger than most of his peers on the international stage because of his aggressive acquisition strategy.

Mr Guo, who is sometimes referred to as China’s Warren Buffett, has spent almost $4bn on insurance companies in Bermuda, Portugal and the US to generate investment capital for other purchases. He has also snapped up Club Med and taken stakes in entertainment business Cirque du Soleil and Thomas Cook, the UK holidays company.

In 2014, Fosun paid ￠1.7bn for 85 per cent of Fidelidade, Portugal’s largest insurance company, and then used it to buy Espírito Santo Saúde, the hospital business, for ￠460.5m. Fosun contributed most of the ￠500m injected into Fidelidade last week as part of a planned capital increase.

During Mr Guo’s mysterious absence, Fosun executives argued that the underlying book value of the group’s rapidly expanding portfolio would support the share prices of its listed units. Shares in Fosun International, the Hong Kong-listed unit, were suspended on Friday during Mr Guo’s absence but have now resumed trading.

BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, is not expected to make a final recommendation to the ECB on whether Fosun should be deemed a “fit and proper” owner of Hauck before Christmas, say people close to the transaction. Fosun International announced what would be the first outright Chinese purchase of a German bank in July. “The process with BaFin is proceeding as normal,” Hauck said. BaFin declined to comment.

In the battle for BHF, Oddo entered the fray late last month with a bid of ￠5.75 per share, trumping Fosun’s ￠5.10 July offer. Oddo says it has the support of more than half of BHF’s shareholders.

One person involved in the deal said Mr Guo was “furious” after the counter-offer from Oddo and ordered his team to prepare a knockout bid of its own.

If Fosun instead chooses to back down, it could sell its 30 per cent stake in BHF to Oddo for a 30 per cent profit on its original investment.

The ECB had deemed Fosun a “fit and proper” potential owner of BHF but with conditions attached, say people familiar with the transaction. These include a requirement that BHF remains a member of Germany’s deposit guarantee scheme for private sector banks, which is administered by the country’s main banking association.

“As far as BHF is concerned, I don’t think he has the credibility in Europe to pursue this any more,” said a person involved in the bidding battle. “Would you believe him [Mr Guo] now if he came and said: ‘I have perfect access to China and can open the market for you’? That’s what he was saying to everyone.”

BHF and the ECB declined to comment, as did the German banking association and Fosun.

Fosun International shares were down more 3.6 per cent in trading yesterday. They fell 9.5 per cent on Monday despite Mr Guo’s sudden reappearance.

In a conference call on Sunday, Wang Qunbin, Fosun International’s president, said any share price volatility in the wake of the saga would offer investors a good buying opportunity.

“All’s well that ends well,” agreed one Shanghai-based fund manager. “We were buying Fosun Pharma into the [Monday] close,” he added, referring to the group’s listed pharmaceuticals unit.

Additional reporting by Peter Wise in Lisbon and Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai

中国复星集团(Fosun Group)董事长郭广昌本周回到办公室后发现，4天的失联给他的欧洲收购计划的前景带来了不确定性。

郭广昌失联是因协助上海司法机关调查，但调查内容不详。他即将完成对Hauck & Aufh?user的价值2.1亿欧元的收购。这笔交易正等待德国金融监管部门和欧洲央行(ECB)的批准。Hauck & Aufh?user是一家总部位于法兰克福的私人银行，创建于18世纪。

在另一场竞购伦敦商人银行BHF Kleinwort Benson的战役中，复星很可能会输给法国私人银行Oddo & Cie。根据胡润百富榜(Hurun Report)的数据，郭广昌在中国富豪榜上排在第17位，拥有78亿美元财富。

但与阿里巴巴(Alibaba)创始人马云等中国科技业亿万富豪一样，由于他的收购战略咄咄逼人，他在国际舞台上的声势要强过多数同行。

郭广昌有时被称作中国的沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)，他已斥资近40亿美元收购百慕大、葡萄牙和美国的保险公司，以获取投资资本，用于其他收购活动。他还收购了地中海俱乐部(Club Med)，并持有娱乐公司太阳马戏团(Cirque du Soleil)和英国旅游公司Thomas Cook部分股权。

2014年，复星斥资17亿欧元购入葡萄牙最大保险公司Fidelidade的80%股权（2015年初增持至85%），接着利用Fidelidade以4.605亿欧元收购了医院集团Espírito Santo Saúde。上周，作为增资计划的一部分，Fidelidade获得5亿欧元注资，复星贡献了其中的多数资金。

在郭广昌神秘失联期间，复星高管称，该集团迅速扩大的投资组合的基本账面价值将支撑其上市公司的股价。在香港上市的复星国际(Fosun International)的股票则在郭广昌失联期间于上周五停牌，但现在已恢复交易。

90秒回顾郭广昌失联事件【英文原声】

据知情人士称，预计德国联邦金融监理署(BaFin)不会在圣诞节前就复星是否应被视为Hauck & Aufh?user的一个“适当”所有者对欧洲央行给出最终建议。今年7月，复星国际宣布了这笔交易，这将是中国企业首次全盘收购一家德国银行。Hauck & Aufh?user表示：“德国联邦金融监理署的程序在正常进行。”德国联邦金融监理署拒绝置评。

上月末，Oddo加入了对BHF的竞购，提出了每股5.75欧元的报价，高于复星今年7月提出的每股5.10欧元的报价。Oddo表示，它获得了BHF逾半数股东的支持。

一位知情人士表示，郭广昌在Oddo提出竞购后“极为恼火”，并命令自己的团队准备己方的制胜报价。

如果复星选择放弃，它可以将其持有的30%的BHF股份卖给Oddo，为其最初的投资获得30%的利润。

知情人士表示，欧洲央行认为复星是BHF的“适当”潜在所有者，但有附加条件。这些条件包括，BHF必须依然是德国私人部门银行存款担保计划的成员，后者由德国主要的银行业协会管理。

一位参与竞购战的人士表示：“就BHF而言，我认为郭广昌在欧洲不再有信誉来推进这件事。如果他来这里说‘我有进入中国的完美通道，能够为你们打开市场’，你现在会相信吗？他曾经对每个人都这么说。”

BHF和欧洲央行拒绝置评，上述德国银行业协会和复星同样拒绝置评。

复星国际股价昨日再下跌3.6%。周一该股下跌9.5%，尽管郭广昌突然重新公开亮相。

在上周日的电话会议上，复星总裁汪群斌表示，郭广昌失联事件导致的任何股价波动都将为投资者带来很好的买入机会。

上海的一位基金经理对此表示赞同，他说：“结果好就一切都好。我们一直买入复星医药直至（周一）收盘。”复星医药是复星集团旗下的上市医药公司。

彼得?怀斯(Peter Wise)里斯本、帕提?沃德米尔(Patti Waldmeir)上海补充报道

译者/何黎