【英语财经】全球市场轻松迎接美联储加息 Markets rally strongly to embrace Fed’s rate increase

Global markets embraced the end of the zero interest rate policy era in the US, sending international stocks higher and quelling fears that investors would recoil at the prospect of higher interest rates.

The dollar climbed sharply against most major currencies in the wake of Wednesday’s US interest rate increase — the first in almost a decade — which dented commodity prices and weighed on the S&P 500; it gave up some of Wednesday’s gains to slip 1.1 per cent.

Yet international markets welcomed the clarity that the Fed’s move brought after years of investor concern over the threat a mismanaged US monetary tightening policy cycle could have on the global financial system.

Fund managers said the positive initial reaction indicated that Fed chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues had managed to pull off a widely debated interest rate “lift-off” without the turbulence that accompanied the end of quantitative easing.

“I’m struggling to see where they got anything wrong,” said Robert Michele, chief investment officer of JPMorgan’s asset management arm. “That’s a big relief.”

The Eurofirst 300 climbed for a third straight day, led by strong gains in the German Dax, and the main stock market gauges of China and Japan both rose. Bourses in the developing world, which have come under intense pressure in recent years, also rallied strongly despite the dollar’s gains. The FTSE Emerging index climbed 1.2 per cent, the most in a month.

Bond markets also reacted calmly to the Fed’s decision, sending borrowing costs down for most major countries. After nudging higher on Wednesday the US 10-year Treasury yield dipped 5 basis points to 2.25 per cent yesterday. The equivalent bond yields for Germany, the UK and France fell sharply to 0.6 per cent, 1.86 per cent and 0.94 per cent. The Move index, a gauge of bond market fear, also declined markedly.

“Markets are happy,” said Jeremy Baskin, chief executive of Axa Rosenberg. “This has been one of the best and longest telegraphed moves the Fed has ever done, and there’s relief that they finally did it.”

Traders pushed the “Fed funds rate” — the US central bank’s primary target — up to within the new 0.25-0.5 per cent interest rate band unveiled on Wednesday, calming concerns that money markets would not immediately respond to the rate increase.

However, there remains a stark divergence between the 2016 interest rate path implied by markets and the US central bank itself, which could still augur financial turbulence in the coming year. While calming investors by striking a strongly dovish tone in its announcement on Wednesday, the Fed still expects to lift interest rates another four times in 2016, while markets are only pricing in two increases.

全球市场轻松迎接美国零利率政策时代的结束，国际股市普遍上扬，平息了有关投资者面对利率上升前景将会退缩的忧虑。

周三美国上调利率（这是近10年来首次加息）后，美元相对于多数主要货币大幅攀升，压低了大宗商品价格，并拖累了标普500(S&P 500)；这个美国基准股指失去了周三的一部分涨幅，收盘下跌1.1%。

然而，国际市场欢迎美联储(Fed)行动带来的清晰度。此前多年投资者一直担忧，美国货币政策紧缩周期若管理不善，可能对全球金融体系构成威胁。

基金经理们表示，积极的初步反应表明，美联储主席珍妮特?耶伦(Janet Yellen)和她的同事们成功地完成了曾被广泛争论的“加息起步”，而没有引发曾经伴随量化宽松政策结束的那种动荡。

“我实在看不出他们有什么把握不当的地方，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)资产管理部门首席投资官罗伯特?米歇尔(Robert Michele)表示。“这让人松了一大口气。”

欧洲股指Eurofirst 300连续第三天攀升，德国DAX指数强劲上涨，同时中国和日本的主要股指也出现上扬。近年承受巨大压力的发展中世界的股市纷纷强劲反弹，尽管美元走高。富时新兴指数(FTSE Emerging index)攀升1.2%，这是一个月来最大单日涨幅。

债券市场也对美联储的决定作出平静反应，多数主要国家的借款成本下降。美国10年期国债收益率在周三微幅上升后，周四跌5个基点，至2.25%。德国、英国和法国10年期国债的收益率分别大幅下跌至0.6%、1.86%和0.94%。衡量债券市场恐慌程度的Move指数也显著下降。

“市场很满意，”安盛罗森堡(Axa Rosenberg)首席执行官杰里米?巴斯金(Jeremy Baskin)表示。“这是美联储预报得最好、最久的政策行动之一，他们终于采取行动让大家都松了一口气。”

交易员们将“联邦基金利率”——美国央行的主要目标——推高至周三宣布的0.25%至0.5%的新利率区间内，化解了有关货币市场不会立即对加息做出反应的担忧。



然而，市场和美国央行本身暗示的2016年利率路径仍存在鲜明差异，这预示着未来一年仍有可能出现金融动荡。美联储周三发表的声明具有强烈的鸽派语气，让投资者感到安慰，但与此同时，美联储仍预期在2016年进一步加息四次，而市场只预期加息两次。

译者/和风