【英语财经】人民币汇率中间价结束十连跌 PBoC guides renminbi higher after weaker run

The People’s Bank of China strengthened the daily fix for the renminbi on Monday, ending a 10-session weakening streak that had contributed to pushing the currency to a four-year low against the US dollar.

The PBoC set the fix, or mid-rate around which the renminbi is allowed to trade each day, 0.09 per cent stronger at 6.4753 per dollar. If it had weakened the fix, it would have made for an unprecedented 11th straight relaxation.

Until Monday’s fix the currency had been weakening at a faster pace than at any time since it was first allowed to appreciate in 2005, losing 1.5 per cent of its value against the US currency over the past fortnight.

“The PBoC are cautious not to establish the expectation that there will be a trend of renminbi depreciation,” said Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Securities. With Monday’s move “they may be trying to discourage one way bets on renminbi depreciation”, he said. “I don’t think you can conclude too much from one data point,” he added.

Liu Jian, a Shanghai-based researcher at Bank of Communications specialising in cross-border capital flows, said that “the main reason why the renminbi softened in the past few days is the Fed’s rate rise. The [Chinese] central bank is unlikely to let the Rmb keep depreciating, because once there’s an expectation in the market, it would take a lot of effort for the PBoC to turn it around.”

Ding Shuang, China economist at Standard Chartered, said: “The PBoC wants a two-way fluctuation. A one-way expectation ... can lead to a big capital inflow or outflow.”.

The PBoC keeps a tight leash on the currency but allows it to move as much as 2 percentage points in either direction of the mid-rate it sets each weekday morning.

The renminbi has already weakened for seven consecutive weeks, prompting debate amongst analysts as to Beijing’s intentions.

“There are two things in the PBoC’s mind: they are willing to let the renminbi weaken further against the dollar, but less vis-à-vis other currencies,” said Mr Hu. “So the Rmb could still strengthen against a basket of currencies”, he said, adding that “if the capital outflow worsens a lot they will step in”.

In mid-August the central bank said the fix would no longer be set arbitrarily; instead it would take notice of market forces, including movements in global currency markets.

Since then, the daily fix has been weakened 5.87 per cent. Some observers said this suggested that the PBoC was directing the currency lower each day; others reckon it suggested the central bank was listening to markets, where there has been downward pressure on the currency from a slowing economy and capital outflows.

“They want to surprise the market and create some uncertainty. But the pressure on [renminbi] is still there,” said Zhou Hao, senior emerging markets economist at Commerzbank AG.

周一，中国央行(PBoC)提升了人民币汇率的每日中间价，结束了人民币汇率的十连跌。这轮下跌已帮助将人民币兑美元汇率压低至4年来的最低水平。

所谓人民币汇率中间价，是人民币兑美元汇率每天允许交易范围的中间位置。周一，中国央行将该中间价上调了0.09%，达到1美元兑6.4753元人民币。若这一中间价今天被该行继续下调，它将出现史无前例的十一连跌。

直到周一上调人民币汇率之前，人民币一直在以自2005年首次允许升值以来从未出现过的速度贬值。在过去两周里，人民币兑美元汇率已下跌1.5%。

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)经济学家胡伟俊(Larry Hu)表示：“中国央行很小心地不要建立那种认为人民币会出现贬值趋势的预期。”他说，“他们也许试图（通过周一的举措），防止人们开展对人民币贬值的单向押注”。他补充说：“我认为只通过一个数据点，还不能下太多定论。”

专门研究跨境资金流动的交通银行(Bank of Communications)驻上海研究员刘建(Liu Jian，音译)表示，“过去几天人民币走软的主要原因是美联储(Fed)加息，（中国）央行不太可能让人民币持续贬值，因为一旦市场形成贬值预期，中国央行要扭转这一趋势将需要付出极大努力。”

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)中国经济学家丁爽表示：“中国央行想要的是双向波动。单向预期……可能会导致资金大规模流入或流出。”

中国央行依然严格控制着人民币汇率，不过该行允许人民币汇率在其每个工作日早晨设定的中间价上下各两个百分点以内的范围内波动。

目前，人民币已连续七周走弱，这在分析师中引发了有关中国政府意图的争论。

胡伟俊表示：“中国央行的头脑中有两件事：他们一方面希望让人民币兑美元进一步走软，另一方面相对其他货币却不要贬值那么多。”他说“出于这个原因，人民币相对一篮子货币仍在走强”，并补充说“如果资金外流规模提升太多，他们将出手干预”。

今年8月中旬，中国央行曾表示不会再随意设定人民币汇率中间价。相反，该行会把市场因素考虑在内，其中包括全球货币市场的动向。

自那以来，人民币汇率中间价已下跌5.87%。部分观察人士表示，这意味着中国央行每天在引导人民币汇率走低。其他人则认为，这意味着中国央行正在听取市场的意见，因为经济放缓和资金外流，令人民币一直面临下行压力。

德国商业银行(Commerzbank AG)资深新兴市场经济学家周浩表示：“他们希望能出乎市场的意料，并创造一定的不确定性。不过，（人民币面临的）压力依然存在。”

译者/简易