【英语财经】“一带一路”背后的人民币国际化抱负 ‘One Belt, One Road’ set to turbocharge renminbi usage

Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, has a fondness for atavistic grand designs. In one, the “Chinese dream”, he urges his people to recapture the glories of the past through a national rejuvenation. In another, the “New Silk Road”, he looks back in time to envisage a future buoyed by closer ties across Eurasia.

So wide-ranging is the New Silk Road initiative to build vast infrastructure projects among 64 countries linked by China’s ancient trade routes that the plan encompasses a full set of Beijing’s modern development goals, including promoting the use of the renminbi in international investment and finance.

The scheme, also called “One Belt One Road” (OBOR), is set to turbocharge renminbi usage, emphasising the Chinese currency’s role as a vehicle to raise capital in overseas financial centres to fund railways, highways, ports, airports and other infrastructure projects across Eurasia.

“London, the US and Asia, plus local markets where the projects are being built, will be places to raise money, as well as onshore in China,” says Spencer Lake, global head of capital financing at HSBC, an investment bank.

“The OBOR financing will be massive and we are already seeing deals being concocted that will require the mainstream public markets for liquidity,” he adds.

Already, the influence of OBOR is evident in China’s overseas investment flows, which rose 16.3 per cent in the first 10 months of this year to $92.5bn. Within this, OBOR-related investment rose 36.7 per cent to $13.7bn, according to China’s ministry of commerce.

But these are the mere foothills of OBOR ambitions. The China Development Bank, one of the country’s main policy banks, has calculated that some 900 projects worth a total of $890bn are currently under way or planned.

The lion’s share of the funding — both in renminbi and other currencies — is likely to come from Chinese policy banks such as the CDB and the China Ex-Im Bank, supported by the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, a new China-led development institution with 57 founding governments, and the Silk Road Fund, a state-owned investment fund, as well as Chinese banks.

But Chinese institutions are also increasingly tapping offshore financial centres to take advantage of a climate of low interest rates and to popularise the renminbi. In the run-up to Mr Xi’s visit to London in October, two state-owned Chinese banks, the China Construction Bank (CCB) and the Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) issued bonds, at least partially in renminbi.

The issues were heavily oversubscribed, with the CCB Rmb1bn bond attracting orders in excess of Rmb5.5bn from investors lured by a coupon of 4.2 per cent and little default risk for what amounts to a quasi-sovereign issue.

“There is a tremendous amount of liquidity for primary new issues from a wide range of Chinese issuers in multiple currencies,” Mr Lake says. “The recent deals in London demonstrate that. As China’s profile on the world stage grows, so too will demand.”

The ABC bond also indicated strategic priorities. The issue was styled as a “green bond” and raised a total of $1bn in both US dollars ($900m) and renminbi ($600m), all of which is destined to be invested in “green” projects including renewable energy, energy efficiency, sustainable transportation, waste management, sustainable land use and water management.

Such “green” investments are envisaged as a key component of the OBOR master plan as China tries to boost the international business of its environmental companies, which it regards as world leaders in search of a ripe international market. The aim is that Chinese suppliers to such OBOR projects will be paid largely in renminbi.

“London is seen as a place where China can raise much of the finance for OBOR projects at relatively low rates and in renminbi,” said one UK official, who declined to be identified. “The main challenge is ensuring that there is enough renminbi liquidity to buy the debt that is issued.”

In order to deepen the market for renminbi in London, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, has started regular sales of one-year renminbi debt at the relatively attractive rate of 3.1 per cent (compared with just 2.43 per cent for one-year sovereign notes onshore). In an indication of demand, the first Rmb5bn tranche attracted 91 orders of over Rmb30bn, bankers said.

Reinforcing this trend toward tapping offshore capital markets was the official easing of rules in September on Chinese corporate bond issues overseas. The new rules, published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), withdraw a requirement for approval and require only that companies inform Beijing of their bond issuance intentions within 10 days of selling.

Such auguries suggest a significant boost not only in Chinese activity in offshore debt markets over the next few years, but also a growing role for the renminbi as an increasingly influential currency in international debt markets.

中国国家主席习近平喜欢有历史渊源的宏大构想。在构想之一“中国梦”中，他敦促中国人民通过民族复兴重现往日辉煌。在另一个构想“新丝绸之路”中，他回望历史，设想通过加强欧亚纽带、构建更兴盛的未来。

新丝绸之路战略是要在中国古代丝绸之路沿线的64个国家兴建大型基建项目。该战略的覆盖领域是如此的广泛，乃至包含了北京方面的一整套现代化发展目标，包括扩大人民币在国际投资和融资中的使用。

新丝绸之路战略也称“一带一路”(OBOR)战略，如果顺利实施，将迅速增加人民币的使用，凸显人民币作为一种融资工具的作用——人们可以使用人民币在海外金融中心融资，用于建设欧亚各地铁路、公路、港口、机场和其他基础设施项目。

“除了中国国内市场，项目还可以在伦敦、美国、亚洲、以及项目所在地市场筹措资金，”投行汇丰(HSBC)全球资本融资主管利子琛(Spencer Lake)说。

“一带一路的融资规模将非常大，我们看到，已有一些交易在谋划中，这些交易将需要主流公开市场为其提供流动性，”他接着说。

在中国的对外投资中，一带一路战略的影响已显而易见。中国商务部数据显示，今年头10个月里，中国对外投资额同比增长16.3%，至952亿美元；其中，一带一路相关投资同比增长36.7%，至131.7亿美元。

但是，这跟一带一路战略的抱负相比微不足道。据中国主要政策性银行之一国家开发银行(CDB)计算，目前在建或拟建的项目约为900个，总投资额达8900亿美元。

项目建设所需资金会以人民币或其他币种提供，大头可能会由国家开发银行和中国进出口银行(China Ex-Im Bank)等中国政策性银行出，新开发机构亚投行(AIIB)、国有投资基金丝路基金(Silk Road Fund)以及中国各商业银行也会出资。亚投行由中国牵头建立，有57个创始成员国。

但是，中国机构也越来越多地进入离岸金融市场，以利用低利率环境并推广人民币的使用。在习近平10月访问伦敦之前，中国两家国有银行——中国建行(CCB)和中国农行(ABC)——在伦敦发行了离岸债券，其中至少部分为人民币债券。

债券发行获得了高倍的超额认购，中国建行拟发债10亿元人民币，但4.2%的票息、加上相当于准主权债券的极低违约风险，吸引投资者下了逾55亿元人民币的认购单。

“各种中国发行企业以多个币种在一级市场上发行的债券都受到市场热捧，”利子琛说，“近期伦敦的几笔交易证明了这一点。随着中国在世界舞台上的地位日益重要，市场对中国发售的债券的需求也将日益强劲。”

中国农行发行的债券也表明了战略重点。此次发行被称为“绿色债券”，筹资规模总计10亿美元，其中包括美元债券（9亿美元）和人民币债券（6亿元人民币），所筹资金计划全部用于投资“绿色项目”，包括可再生能源、能源效率、可持续交通、废物处理、可持续土地使用以及污水处理。

中国认为自己的环保企业世界领先，这些企业正在寻找一个成熟的国际市场。在中国努力推动自己的环保企业开拓国际业务之际，此类“绿色”投资被视为“一带一路”总规划的关键组成部分。其目标是，这类“一带一路”项目的中国供应商收到的付款，将主要为人民币形式。

“人们认为，在伦敦，中国能够以较低的利率、以人民币为币种，为‘一带一路’项目筹措大部分资金，”一名拒绝透露身份的英国官员称，“主要的挑战是确保有足够的人民币流动性，来购买发行的债券。”

为了扩大伦敦人民币市场容量，中国人民银行，即中国央行，已经开始定期出售1年期人民币央行票据，票面利率3.1%，（相对于中国境内1年期央行票据仅2.43%的收益率）是比较有吸引力的。银行业人士称，首笔50亿元人民币的1年期央行票据吸引了91笔订单，认购规模逾300亿元人民币。

9月，中国国家发改委放松了中国企业海外发债的规定，巩固了这股中国企业利用离岸资本市场的势头。国家发改委发布的外债管理新政，取消了中国企业发行外债的预先审批程序，发债企业只需事前备案登记，并在每期发行结束后10个工作日内，向国家发改委报送发行信息。

种种迹象表明，未来数年，不仅中国在离岸债券市场上的活跃度将显著提高，而且人民币作为国际债券市场上日益有影响力的货币，其重要性也将显著提升。

译者/何黎