【英语财经】人民币贬值威胁全球市场稳定 China’s weakening renminbi poses stability threat

While investors are focused elsewhere, the biggest threat to market stability loiters. China’s renminbi is weakening.

Nothing shocked investors in 2015 as much as the August devaluation of the renminbi. It was enough to halt the dollar bull run and scupper the Federal Reserve’s rate hike hopes.

Now, as investors anticipate the US central bank will finally tighten policy next week, the renminbi is losing steam. While not as dramatic as its August decline, the currency has quietly drifted 1.8 per cent weaker against the dollar over the past six weeks.

The direction of China’s currency looms large over global markets as it begs big questions: does renminbi weakness reflect badly on the state of the Chinese economy? And if so, will that darken the outlook for commodity markets and miners, with repercussions for global and US economic prospects?

“On a relative basis, the depreciation is fast,” says Nomura’s Craig Chan, Asian foreign exchange strategist.

Catching investors off guard may well be the timing, given recent reassurances out of Beijing.

Most forex strategists are guiding investors to expect a fall by the end of 2016 to around Rmb6.70-6.80 but it has started a lot sooner than they expected.

Another step lower on Thursday took the currency to Rmb6.44, just below the August 11 nadir.

What really shifts the renminbi is China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, which every day sets a reference rate for the onshore rate allowing the currency to trade 2 per cent either side of that rate.

This week, the PBoC relaxed the rate to its lowest level in four years, and the renminbi duly reached its lowest end-of-day rate since August 2011.

“I’m a little bit surprised they have let it go quite this far,” says Adrian Owens, investment director at GAM International. “I would have thought they would stabilise things.”

The silent fall in the renminbi contrasts with all the noise in the currency world around the dollar. The market looks pretty much priced in for next Thursday’s Fed meeting to push rates higher for the first time in nearly a decade.

Last week’s febrile market reaction to the European Central Bank’s milder than expected monetary easing measures may have driven the euro higher against its transatlantic partner but the US dollar remains heavily backed by many.

Dollar strength thereby drags the renminbi along for the ride against China’s big trading partners. This comes amid three developments this week out of Beijing that suggest a further weakening of the renminbi beckons.

China’s forex reserves in November fell by more than $87bn — the third highest monthly fall on record, and only slightly below the $94bn drop in August that contributed to market anxiety about the country’s economic slowdown.

“There are still substantial capital outflows,” says Mr Chan. To avoid falling into the impossible trinity of a stable currency, free movement of capital and independent monetary policy, “it needs to allow for greater renminbi flexibility or market determination”.

The forex reserves data were followed by trade data showing significant import and export falls, and the PBoC’s reference rate shift.

Just like the Swiss National Bank in January anticipated ECB monetary easing by abandoning its peg, so the PBoC is getting ready for a Fed hike, says Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman.

“It is anticipating the big move,” he says. “China realises that if the dollar rallies or trends higher, that’s not good for its economy. They want to create a little bit more latitude between the dollar and the renminbi.”

This week’s alarms contribute to pressure on commodity currencies, more so since the data revealed how China, the big purchaser of commodities in the previous decade, is saturating the market with its excess of oil, aluminium and steel as it unwinds its stockpiles

“We are seeing a structural shift in commodity markets,” says Michael Sneyd, forex strategist at BNP Paribas.

It is not the first time the market has taken its eye off the China story. China’s economic slowdown has driven commodity prices down all year, but the market caught on late.

Since August’s China devaluation shock, the market has been more taken up with China’s successful campaign to gain reserve currency status by joining the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights basket.

Market worries about the renminbi largely subsided during September and October when the currency strengthened against the dollar.

Luis Costa at Citigroup says the experience of the August market shock should still make the PBoC careful about allowing the renminbi to devalue rapidly. “The renminbi is still very expensive. The capital outflow story hasn’t quite stabilised. It’s clear the action at SDR was not enough to offset potential capital outflows.”

Whatever the speed, the depreciation strategy looks much back on, with the gap between the official onshore rate and the offshore rate at its widest in three months.

“That tells us there are still depreciation pressures and capital outflow pressures and the currency is not at fair value,” says Mr Chan.

When, as expected, the Fed hikes rates next week, the market may be better advised to watch what happens in Beijing rather than Washington.

投资者的关注点在别处时，市场稳定面临的最大威胁依然存在。中国的人民币正在走弱。

2005年最让投资者震惊的，莫过于8月的人民币贬值。这一举动当时足以让美元走强行情暂停，令美联储加息的希望化为了泡影。

现在，投资者预期美联储终于将在下周收紧政策的时候，人民币开始丧失上涨动力。尽管下跌不如8月剧烈，但在过去6周里，人民币兑美元汇率悄悄地下降了1.8%。

人民币的走势悬在全球市场的头顶上，它引出了重大疑问：人民币走弱是否会让人们对中国经济的状况产生悲观看法？如果是这样，是否会导致大宗商品市场和矿商前景变得黯淡、冲击全球和美国的经济前景？

“相对而言，人民币的贬值速度很快，”野村证券(Nomura)亚洲外汇策略师Craig Chan说。

鉴于北京方面近来做出的保证，这次人民币贬值很可能趁投资者放松警惕打了他们个措手不及。

大多数外汇策略师给投资者的指导意见是，人民币兑美元汇率预计会在2016年年底前降到1美元兑换6.70至6.80元人民币左右，但贬值来的比他们预期的早得多。

周四，人民币兑美元汇率再度下跌，至1美元兑换6.44元人民币，略低于8月11日的低点。

真正左右着人民币的是中国央行(PBoC)，该行每日设定在岸人民币汇率中间价，允许人民币交易价在中间价上下2%的幅度内浮动。

本周，中国央行把中间价压低到四年低点，人民币汇率也相应地创下了自2011年8月以来最低的收盘价。

“他们让人民币汇率跌得这么厉害，我感到有点儿吃惊，”GAM International投资主管阿德里安?欧文斯(Adrian Owens)说，“我本来以为，他们会稳住汇率。”

人民币的悄然下跌，与外汇市场上围绕美元的喧嚣形成了反差。下周四，美联储可能会在议息会议上宣布近10年来的首次加息，这一预期看上去已经在很大程度上反映到了市场行情中。

上周，欧洲央行(ECB)货币宽松措施不及预期引发了市场激烈反应，或许推动欧元对美元汇率升高，但美元仍是许多人热捧的对象。

结果，美元走强带动人民币相对中国几大贸易伙伴国的货币升值。与此同时，本周北京方面发生了三件事，预示人民币将进一步贬值。

11月，中国外汇储备减少逾870亿美元——这是有记录以来第三大月度跌幅，只是略低于8月外汇储备减少的940亿美元。8月外储的大幅减少，导致市场对中国经济放缓感到担忧。

“目前仍有大量资本外流，”Chan称。根据三元悖论，一个国家不可能同时实现货币稳定、资本自由流动和货币政策独立。为避免陷入这一悖论，“中国需要让人民币的灵活性得以提高，或让市场得以发挥更大决定作用”。

外汇储备数据公布前，贸易数据表明中国进出口出现显著下滑，同时央行调低了基准利率。

布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)的马克?钱德勒(Marc Chandler)称，正如1月瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)预计到欧洲央行(ECB)将推出货币宽松政策，提前通过放弃盯住欧元来应对一样，中国央行此举是提前为美联储加息做准备。

“中国正等待着美联储的大行动，”他称，“中国意识到如果美元反弹或有上涨趋势，对中国经济来说不是好事。他们希望在美元和人民币中间建立大一点的自由空间。”

本周的警报导致大宗商品出口国货币承压，再加上有数据表明，过去十年一直大量购买大宗商品的中国眼下正释放库存，其过剩的石油、铝和钢材使市场进一步饱和，更增加了大宗商品出口国货币承受的压力。

“我们发现大宗商品市场正在发生结构性的转变，”法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的外汇策略师迈克尔?斯尼德(Michael Sneyd)称。

这并非市场第一次没注意到中国发生的事情。中国经济增长放缓导致大宗商品全年下滑，但是市场很晚才反应过来。

自8月人民币意外贬值以来，中国为加入国际货币基金组织(IMF)特别提款权(SDR)篮子、获得国际储备货币地位而做出的种种行之有效的努力，更多地吸引了市场的注意力。

在9、10月份人民币对美元走强时，市场对人民币的担忧已经大大缓解。

花旗集团(Citigroup)的路易斯?科斯塔(Luis Costa)称，8月市场动荡的经历，应该仍然会让中国央行对允许人民币迅速贬值三思而行。“人民币仍然被高估。资本外流的情况尚未稳定。被纳入SDR明显不足以抵消潜在资本外流的影响。”

不论以何种速度贬值，让人民币贬值的策略看上去在很大程度上又重新开始实施了，人民币官方在岸汇率与离岸汇率价差处于3个月最高值。

“这告诉我们目前仍然有贬值压力和资本外流压力，人民币价值未处于公允水平，”野村证券的Craig Chan表示。

当美联储如人们所预期的在下周加息时，市场可能最好关注北京、而不是华盛顿的动向。

译者/何黎