【英语财经】人民币贸易结算对中国外储影响几何？ Renminbi reforms could drive down Chinese forex reserves

China’s foreign exchange reserves, which stood at $3.5tn in October, have been a source of national pride and a bulwark against adverse financial conditions.

The internationalisation of the renminbi means, however, that Chinese exporters and importers increasingly can send and receive payments in renminbi, rather than US dollars.

China is the world’s largest exporter, and big trade surpluses over the last decade have fuelled the rise of China’s forex reserves. Now, some are worried that dwindling US dollar export earnings, twinned with capital outflows from China, could result in a drop in China’s forex reserves and with it slumping demand for US Treasury debt.

Use of the renminbi for trade settlement has grown rapidly since 2010. According to central bank data, he renminbi was used for 24 per cent of China’s current account transactions, or Rmb5.5tn, in the first nine months of this year, up from only 8 per cent in 2011. China’s central bank governor, Zhou Xiaochuan, has said he wants the ratio to exceed one-third by 2020.

Determining how important renminbi trade settlement is to China’s foreign exchange reserves, however, requires understanding the direction of renminbi payment flows.

If most renminbi trade settlement consists of overseas companies using renminbi instead of US dollars to pay for Chinese goods, that would lead to slower accumulation or even an outright decline in forex reserves, as the renminbi replaces the US dollar in China’s inbound money flows.

If, on the other hand, it is Chinese companies using renminbi to pay for imported goods, the opposite would occur: forex reserves would swell faster as renminbi replace dollars for outbound payments.

Between 2010, when renminbi trade settlement began, and 2014 outbound renminbi payments heavily outweighed inbound renminbi receipts. This imbalance peaked in early 2014, when payments exceeded receipts by a ratio of more than two to one, according to central bank data. In 2014, the gap narrowed to 1.4 to one, leading to net renminbi outflows of Rmb1.1tn. Based on the average dollar-renminbi exchange rate during 2014, that implies China’s forex reserves grew by $179bn more than they would have before the use of renminbi for trade settlement.

This year, however, the pattern reversed. In the nine months to the end of September, renminbi inflows exceeded outflows by a ratio of 1.2 to 1, leading to a net inflow of Rmb773bn, or a $124bn negative impact on reserves.

The shift is partly due to the depreciation of the renminbi following many years of appreciation. Until the depreciation traders were happy to accept renminbi payments because they could feel reasonably certain they would profit from currency gains.

“Our corporate clients are very sensitive to exchange-rate expectations. They will shift their forex behaviour when they feel the market shifting. Sometimes they’re even quicker than we are,” says a forex dealer at a Chinese bank in Shanghai.

Indeed, after the renminbi surprised the market and fell by 2.4 per cent in 2014, market sentiment shifted. Overseas trading partners no longer wanted renminbi and sought to use trade settlement as a way to offload unwanted renminbi on to Chinese exporters. As the renminbi extended its losses this year, this pattern became entrenched.

Today, analysts are divided about the long-term direction of the renminbi exchange rate. In the medium term, however, China’s persistent trade surplus and fast productivity growth relative to the US suggest room for further appreciation.

Ultimately, however, the impact of renminbi trade settlement on China’s forex reserves may be dwarfed by other factors. For the past decade, trade dominated China’s overall currency flows, while capital controls sharply limited both inbound and outbound investment flows. That is now changing, as China moves to loosen restrictions on currency conversion for investment purposes. Such “capital-account liberalisation” has made it easier for foreigners to invest in China’s onshore equity and bond markets, while Chinese investors have acquired foreign companies and gobbled up real estate in London and Sydney.

This liberalisation — combined with bearish sentiment toward the renminbi and the broader Chinese economy — has led to net investment outflows worth $440bn in the first nine months of this year, including a record outflow in the third quarter, balance of payments data show. Thus, the impact on China’s forex reserves from capital outflows was more than three times larger than the $124bn negative impact on reserves from renminbi trade settlement.

Larry Hu, economist at Macquarie Securities, believes a more market-oriented renminbi exchange rate will promote balance between forex inflows and outflows. “What [the central bank] really wants,” he wrote recently, “is a more volatile renminbi which could deter one-way capital flows.”

中国外汇储备在今年10月达到3.5万亿美元，它是民族自豪感的一个源泉，也是抵御不利金融状况的堡垒。

然而，人民币国际化意味着，中国出口商和进口商日益可以用人民币、而非美元来进行支付和收款。

中国是全球最大的出口国，过去十年的巨额贸易顺差导致中国外汇储备增长。现在，一些人担心，美元出口收入下降，加上资本外逃，可能导致中国外储下降，进而大幅减少对美国国债的需求。

自2010年以来，使用人民币进行贸易结算的比例迅速上升。央行数据显示，今年前9个月，中国经常账户交易中有24%是用人民币结算的，即5.5万亿元人民币，而在2011年该比例只有8%。中国央行行长周小川表示，他希望该比例到2020年超过三分之一。

然而，要判断人民币贸易结算对中国外汇储备有多么重要，就需要明白人民币支付流动的方向。

如果大多数人民币贸易结算是由使用人民币而非美元购买中国商品的海外公司完成，那将导致外汇储备放缓积累甚至下降，因为人民币取代美元，成为流入中国的货币。

另一方面，如果中国公司使用人民币购买进口商品，那么情况正好相反：外汇储备将更快膨胀，因为人民币取代美元，成为对外支付货币。

在开始使用人民币贸易结算的2010年至2014年期间，对外的人民币支付远远超过人民币收款。这种不平衡在2014年初达到最高峰，当时央行数据显示，支付与收款的比例超过2:1。2014年期间，该比例收窄至1.4:1，导致人民币净流出1.1万亿元人民币。基于2014年美元兑人民币的平均汇率，这意味着，与未使用人民币贸易结算本应增长的数额相比，中国外汇储备多增长了1790亿美元。

然而，今年这种模式发生了逆转。在截至9月底的九个月里，人民币流入与流出的比例为1.2:1，这导致人民币净流入7730亿元人民币，或者导致外汇储备减少1240亿美元。



这种转变在一定程度上是人民币在多年升值之后转向贬值所致。在人民币贬值前，贸易商一直很乐于接受人民币支付，因为他们相当肯定自己会从货币升值中获利。

上海某中资银行的一名外汇交易员表示：“我们的企业客户对汇率预期非常敏感。当他们感觉市场转向时就会改变外汇行为。有时他们的动作甚至比我们还快。”

的确，2014年人民币出乎市场意料贬值2.4%后，市场情绪已经有所转变。海外贸易伙伴不再想要人民币，并寻求通过贸易结算把不想要的人民币“卸给”中国出口商。随着人民币今年扩大贬值，这种模式进一步固化。

眼下，分析师对人民币汇率的长期走向意见不一。然而，就中期而言，中国持续的贸易顺差和相对于美国的较快生产率增长似乎表明，人民币还有进一步升值的空间。

然而，最终而言，与其他因素相比，人民币贸易结算对中国外汇储备的影响可能相对较小。过去十年期间，贸易主导着中国的整体外汇流动，同时资本管制严格限制着流入境内的投资以及中国对外的投资流动。现在这种情况正在改变，因为中国开始放松对以投资为目的进行的外汇兑换活动的限制。此类“资本账户自由化”让外国人更容易投资中国境内的股票和债券市场，也让中国投资者收购外国公司，并在伦敦和悉尼抢购房地产。

国际收支数据显示，这种自由化（加上对人民币和中国宏观经济的悲观情绪）导致今年头九个月投资净流出达到4400亿美元，包括第三季度创纪录的资本外流。因此，资本外流对中国外汇储备的影响，三倍于人民币贸易结算，后者对外汇储备产生了1240亿美元的负面影响。

麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)经济学家胡伟俊(Larry Hu)相信，一个更加以市场为导向的人民币汇率将会推动外汇流入和流出达到平衡。他在最近写道：“（中国央行）真正想要的是，一种波动幅度加大、可以吓阻单向资本流动的人民币。”

译者/邹策